Sports are getting hotter, harder and deadlier

“A player will die,” Daniil Medvedev complained mid-match on the hottest day of the US Open in New York last year, as the temperature rose to 34C. “It was brutal… it ruined everything.” Similar temperatures – combined with higher humidity – made conditions at this year’s tournament, which ended September 8, even more difficult at times. The players fought and vomited; During breaks, they wrapped ice packs around their necks and heads or stuck tubes that blew cold air into their shirts to cool themselves down. The steeply sloping, cheaper pitches were home to the largest crowds ever: a total of around a million spectators attended the competition, fulfilling a goal that the organizers had set for themselves in 2019.

PREMIUM

Since the turn of the 20th century, shortly after a version of the US Open first began, the average summer in New York has warmed by about 2°C. Annual average temperatures worldwide have risen by about half. An even clearer trend was evident at the Paris Olympics earlier this year. In the 100 years since the games were last held in 1924, the city’s average August temperature has risen by 2.7°C.

Climate change means that places that were once considered perfect for major sporting events appear increasingly unsuitable. At the same time, the size and value of such events have grown, as has the demand to hold them in more locations. The collision of both trends has made international sports competitions more difficult and dangerous, and hosts have become increasingly reliant on sophisticated workarounds.

Many sports are sensitive to the environment in which they are practiced. Some, of course, require specific conditions, such as snow for skiing and wind for sailing (or a lack of rain for cricket). Changing weather conditions and higher temperatures limit the holding of these events, at least without technical intervention. The 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing were the first to be held entirely on artificial snow. They won’t be the last: a study published in 2022 found that even if the rise in global temperatures is limited to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels – which is now all but impossible – only 13 of the 21 places that previously hosted the Winter Olympics could do so by 2050.

Beyond widespread changes on the planet, seemingly small temperature fluctuations can have a big impact on athlete performance. The debilitating effects of warm weather are well known and they often try to acclimatize before competing in hot locations. However, even then, only limited adaptation is possible: higher temperatures accelerate dehydration, cause glucose to be broken down more quickly, and reduce the amount of oxygen sent to the muscles (the body must primarily send blood to the skin for cooling). itself downwards).

The cumulative effect of too much heat is most evident in endurance events – and it can be dramatic. A study of more than 100 athletes competing in long-distance races at the 2019 World Athletics Championships in hot, humid Qatar found that virtually all performed 3–20% worse than their personal best, with performance decreasing while wet-bulb temperatures increased (a measure of heat, humidity and solar radiation that best reflects the effects on a human body). This happened despite organizers taking some extreme measures: all athletics events were held in a huge, air-conditioned stadium, and the road races had to be held in the middle of the night.

Warmer weather can also act as a burden in less obvious ways. Heat stress is known to affect decision-making and motor skills. There is growing evidence that it can make athletes in many sports more clumsy or argumentative.

Most professional athletes seem to be aware of these effects: three quarters of respondents to a survey published by the World Athletics Federation said that climate change was having a direct negative impact on their health and performance. The physical consequences of competing in hot weather can range from cramps and dizziness to sudden death. Exertional heat stroke (EHS) occurs when a body overheats during strenuous activity and can lead to seizures and organ failure. The mortality rate for people hospitalized with EHS is about 15%; If untreated it can be 80%. The condition is believed to be the third leading cause of sudden death among young American athletes.

Play it cool

Global warming means competition organizers now have to work harder to keep athletes safe. The first step is to understand when conditions are simply too dangerous. In recent years, international associations have begun to introduce extreme heat guidelines that require measures such as additional breaks or postponements when temperature thresholds are exceeded. However, most guidelines do not take into account the physical demands of athletes who are already pushing their limits. The US Tennis Association, for example, will not suspend play or close the sunroof at the US Open until the wet bulb temperature reaches 32.5°C, although the American College of Sports Medicine recommends limiting or canceling outdoor events at that time. This measure is overridden 28°C.

Once appropriate security measures have been adopted, their implementation requires careful contingency planning so that time and location can be changed if necessary. To help with this, a new industry has emerged that provides event organizers with tailored weather forecasts. For example, a private division of Météo France, the French weather agency, has specialized in sports forecasting for two decades. At this year’s Paris Olympics, the modeling was so detailed that it also took into account how the perceived temperature in the Grand Palais – an exhibition hall used as a venue for fencing and taekwondo – would change depending on the angle of the sun’s incidence on the building curved glass roof. Demand for such services has increased, says Alexis Decalonne, who heads the unit. His customers include Formula 1 car races across Europe and the Wimbledon tennis tournament.

Organizers also need to mitigate the risks the heat poses to spectators. Some protection measures can be taken in advance, e.g. B. Ensuring that there is adequate shade and water in areas through which crowds move. In the run-up to the Olympic Games in Paris, for example, around 300,000 trees were planted around the city. In addition, hundreds of new drinking fountains were installed and venue safety rules were changed to allow spectators to bring reusable water bottles (a change so drastic that it required the approval of the French Prime Minister).

But in some cases, improving safety is at odds with commercial needs as the most popular sporting events increase in size and value. Huge tournaments are already a fixture in all sports, from handball to gymnastics to motorsports – and they’re only getting bigger.

Between 1964 and 2018, the overall size of the men’s Summer or Winter Olympics and World Cups — measured by the number of athletes, ticket revenue, sponsorship revenue, media coverage and the cost of hosting — increased by about that, according to researchers 60 times at the University of Lausanne.

Most major events lose money, but potential hosts often seem to care more about boosting their own image. More and more new countries are increasingly interested in hosting major events, even if their climatic conditions are not suitable for this. In order to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, organizers have shifted the tournament timing from summer to winter and installed air conditioning in all outdoor stadiums. Saudi Arabia won its bid to hold the 2029 Asian Winter Games in the middle of the desert by promising to build 36km of artificial ski slopes in NEOM, a futuristic city that doesn’t yet exist. India’s bid for the 2036 Summer Olympics appears impossible without major technological innovations or permission from the host to plan them later in the year.

Some of the extreme measures being taken to stage events in locations too hot for them are exacerbating the sports industry’s already significant environmental sins. Organizers of the 2022 World Cup say it is responsible for emitting about 3.6 million tons of carbon dioxide, about the same amount as the 2016 Olympics in Rio de Janeiro. (Independent estimates of emissions from the World Cup in Qatar were significantly higher.)

Making the biggest sporting events more environmentally friendly is possible, if difficult. Organizers of the Paris Olympics, for example, pledged to halve their emissions compared to their recent competitors (ignoring the Tokyo Games, which took place during a COVID-19 lockdown). They seem to have succeeded after serious efforts. According to Georgina Grenon, the Olympics’ sustainability director, organizers had to rethink everything from what emergency generators broadcasters would use to what proportion of food ingredients should come from France to reduce the amount flown in. Among the measures they took to reduce waste was renting rather than purchasing some of the 600,000 pieces of furniture needed.

Such efforts are not to be despised. But organizers also had to rely heavily on carbon offsets, highlighting the difficulties of rehabilitating a model designed to attract ever-increasing numbers of fans and competitors from around the world.

So the question is whether this model can remain viable as the mercury continues to rise. “These poor guys… it’s not human,” concluded John McEnroe, a tennis champion turned commentator after watching Mr. Medvedev’s quarterfinal match against Andrey Rublev at the US Open last year. He further complained that the heat had turned the tournament into a “war of attrition.” He could have talked about many of the sport’s most famous games.

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