Oklahoma vs. Auburn Prediction and Best Bets – NCAAF Tips for Week 5

Two teams searching for themselves on offense meet Saturday when the Auburn Tigers host the Oklahoma Sooners.

In my Oklahoma vs. Auburn predictions, I explain why the Sooners will defeat a Tigers team that has struggled against tough opponents so far this season.

Learn more in my college football picks for this SEC showdown on September 28th.

Oklahoma vs Auburn Prediction

My best choice
Oklahoma -2.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
Picks made at the time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis
Both teams enter Saturday with serious questions about their quarterback play. Oklahoma sophomore Jackson Arnold has rushed for just 538 yards and seven touchdowns — not to mention three interceptions — in four games this year, which ranks him 110th nationally according to ESPN’s QBR metric.

The Sooners handed the ball over to freshman quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr. in the second quarter last weekend against the Tennessee Volunteers, who had some success down the stretch. Hawkins threw for 132 yards and a touchdown on 18 attempts while running for 22 yards against one of the best teams in the country. As a result, it will be Hawkins who will receive the ball against the Tigers on Saturday.

Auburn hasn’t had consistent performance with any of its quarterback options. Freshman Hank Brown started last week’s game against the Arkansas Razorbacks but was withdrawn after three interceptions. Senior Payton Thorne came off the bench to finish the game, but it’s worth noting that he also threw five picks this year.

Between these two shaky quarterback situations, I have a little more confidence in the Oklahoma team. Hawkins did it – at least partially – against a top-tier SEC opponent, which means he’ll likely find ways to create offense against Auburn, too. Meanwhile, Hugh Freeze isn’t sure who he wants to use, with Brown and Thorne in open competition.

Oklahoma also has the better defense, at least from what we’ve seen this season. Before last weekend’s game, the Sooners had not allowed 20 points in a game, and they held Tennessee to just 25, staying in the game as long as possible while the offense sputtered. It was the first time the Volunteers scored fewer than 51 points this season.

Auburn hasn’t been particularly bad defensively, averaging just 16.8 points per game so far in 2024. However, only two of those games came against Power 4 schools, with the California Golden Bears and Arkansas Razorbacks each scoring 21+ points against the Tigers.

Hawkins and Oklahoma should be close to that number again on Saturday. The problem for Auburn is that it’s hard to imagine they can match even a mediocre offensive performance from the Sooners. I like that Oklahoma covers a very small spread in its first-ever SEC road game.

Match game between Oklahoma and Auburn (SGP)

Oklahoma is my pick, but don’t confuse that with the idea that I’m in love with its offensive production. I expect both teams to struggle to move the ball on Saturday and that’s something I’m aiming for in my course in the same game.

Of course I’ll take the Sooners for coverage again. I’ll compare that to the Under’s meager 45.5 points. Both teams were under that number last week when playing against SEC competition, and I expect them to continue that low scoring trend as we move forward with the conference schedule.

Learn how to place a bet in the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

Oklahoma vs Auburn odds

Oklahoma vs Auburn live odds

Opening odds for Oklahoma vs. Auburn

• Oklahoma vs. Auburn spread: Auburn +2.5
• Money line Oklahoma vs. Auburn: Oklahoma -135, Auburn +115
• Oklahoma vs. Auburn Over/Under: 46.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Oklahoma vs. Auburn spread and over/under analysis

• Oklahoma and Auburn are each 2-2 ATS so far this season.
• The Sooners are the favorites at 2-1 ATS, while the Tigers enter this game as underdogs for the first time this season.
• The Under is 3-1 in Oklahoma games this year, while it is 2-2 in Auburn games.
• The Sooners averaged a total of 43.8 ppg in 2024, with Auburn’s average total of 53.5 ppg.

Things to know about the Oklahoma vs. Auburn betting trend

The Sooners are 3-0 ATS in their last three games as favorites of 14 points or fewer. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs. Auburn.

Information about the Oklahoma vs. Auburn game

Oklahoma vs. Auburn, recent injuries

Weather Oklahoma vs. Auburn

Monitor game conditions with our college football weather information.

Pages on this topic