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MSU is getting a lot of money, so why does Vegas still prefer UM on Saturday?

MSU is getting a lot of money, so why does Vegas still prefer UM on Saturday?

The trajectories of rival soccer teams have shifted.

This also applies to the gambling market before the Michigan vs. Michigan State game on Saturday evening.

More than two months before the season, Michigan, the reigning national champion, was the 24½-point favorite for its Week 9 game against Michigan State, and heading into last week’s games the odds were still at 9½ points. While the Wolverines are now still the betting favorite, the odds have dropped significantly after the teams started 4-3 – most recently the Spartans’ win over Iowa and the Wolverines’ loss against Illinois.

The rivalry game line began this week at 6½ in favor of Michigan, was down to 5½ at noon Tuesday and was down to four points at 6 p.m. Tuesday. And it could drop even further before kickoff.

“It’s quite a change,” said Johnny Avello, director of racing and sports betting at DraftKings. “It just shows that Michigan’s power is going down and Michigan State’s is going up.”

“Both teams are just having a hard time. I think Michigan probably has it even harder.”

More: Niyo: If you can see what you believe, MSU has an advantage over UM

The reason why Michigan is still a slight favorite, Avello said around noon on Tuesday, is the home advantage, even though Michigan State has had a decent record at Michigan Stadium, at least in recent years, winning three of the last five meetings Ann Arbor.

DraftKings had the over-under at 40 total points, while BetMGM has it at 40½.

Michigan State cashes in big with a commanding 32-20 victory over Iowa that ended the Spartans’ three-game losing streak – although two of those losses came against two of the best teams in the country, Oregon and Ohio State.

“Two really fast teams,” Avello said. “Iowa must have seemed slow to them after playing those two.”

According to BetMGM, Michigan State accounts for 87% of the bets and 91% of the total handle, while MSU accounts for 92% of the bets and 96% of the handle on the money line (straight up).

On BetMGM’s money line, Michigan State was a +1,400 underdog at one point. That means if you bet $100 on the Spartans to win, that would pay out $1,400 in this case. That’s down to +175, meaning a $100 bet will win you $175. Avello said he expects the money to continue to flow and he believes Saturday will be one of the most-betted college football games, especially because it is a night game.

Before the season, DraftKings had a total of around nine over-under wins for Michigan and around seven wins for Michigan State. The Wolverines’ bet seems out of reach, but not a complete surprise, Avello said.

“(Jim) Harbaugh saw it coming. He knew he was going to lose (JJ) McCarthy and (Blake) Corum and he knew it was probably going to be difficult,” Avello said. “He probably saw that he didn’t have a solid quarterback this year, so I think all of those things probably influenced his decision to go pro.”

“Was Sherrone Moore prepared to coach a team of this caliber?”

Of Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith, Avello said, “I think he’s going to have Michigan State as an above-average team. I think they will be a tough opponent in the coming years.”

Avello said the key to Saturday’s game will be turnovers – Michigan State has a turnover margin of minus-six and Michigan is minus-seven, both among the worst in the country – and the running game, which always plays a major role in that Result plays this rivalry. MSU ran for a season-best 212 yards against a good Iowa defense.

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