The Celtics and Warriors are among the NBA teams looking to shoot more three-pointers in 2024-25

The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks reached the 2024 NBA Finals as very different teams united by one strategic goal: firing away from downtown. They ranked first and second in the NBA in 3-point attempt percentage last season, and now other teams are lining up to do the same.

The NBA’s 3-point revolution isn’t over yet. The average team took 44% of their shots from behind the arc in the 2024 Friendlies, which is the highest rate ever in the preseason. For comparison: The league-wide rate has never exceeded 40% in any regular season.

After gradually increasing for decades in the NBA, the frequency of 3-point shots began to increase in the 2012-13 season, when 24.4% of shots were three-pointers, and continued until around the 2019-20 season, when this The number rose again to 38.4%. Over the last four seasons, that trend has plateaued, but 2024-25 could prove different.

With the support of analytically inclined head coach Joe Mazzulla, the defending champion Celtics hope to hold on for even longer–Longer range shots than last year. In the preseason, 55.4% of the team’s shots were three-pointers, which would not only shatter the league-leading 47.1% rate from last season, but would also shatter the all-time record set by James Harden’s Houston Rockets in 2019 .

So what? It’s just preseason, right? According to a study by Owen Phillips, 3-point attempt rate has the second strongest correlation between preseason and regular season out of 25 team metrics he has tracked since 2019.

When teams decide to shoot more threes, they usually practice this concept in the preseason. Last year, for example, the teams that ranked first through fifth in regular-season 3-point attempt percentage also all ranked in the top 10 in the preseason. The Celtics made the most three-pointers in both settings.

“I love threes,” Mazzulla said at a press conference during his first season at the helm in 2022. “I like math.”

The Golden State Warriors, who won the championship in 2022 after finishing second in the league in 3-point attempt percentage during the regular season, are looking to reinvest in this area of ​​the court. They shot nearly half (49%) from 3-point range last season, compared to 42.5% last year, where they ranked sixth.

In a friendly in October, the Dubs shot 28-52 from downtown, much to the delight of head coach Steve Kerr. “The math just doesn’t add up [if you don’t shoot threes]Kerr said loudly The athlete. “Especially for us. We’re not a team that gets to the free throw line often. It would be hard for us to win a lot of games if we didn’t shoot a lot of threes.”

After losing center field specialist DeMar DeRozan during the offseason, the Chicago Bulls appear poised to change their hitting diet more than any other team. They attempted 47.2% of their shots from 3-point range in the preseason, a huge increase from 35.8% in the 2024 regular season.

Likewise, 47.5% of the Phoenix Suns’ shots in the preseason were 3-pointers, an increase from 37.8% last year. New head coach Mike Budenholzer has coached 10 NBA seasons and finished in the top half of the league in 3-point attempt percentage in all 10 seasons. He was named Coach of the Year twice, in 2015 and 2019, when his teams finished fourth and third, respectively.

His players accept his approach. “The volume should be higher,” Suns guard Devin Booker told the media. “Attempting the 3-point shot without even making it stretches the defense and creates better looks as the game progresses.”

Booker’s explanation answers an interesting mathematical question that arises from NBA shooting data. A decade ago, the average 2-pointer yielded a value of 0.98 points while the average 3-pointer yielded a value of 1.08, revealing major inefficiency. In the decade since, however, teams have eliminated suboptimal long twos and improved pitches for drives to the rim. Now, 3s and 2s yield almost exactly the same points per attempt, but teams still strive to shoot more 3s because it makes life more difficult for defenses.

There is now consensus across the league that shooting threes is a non-negotiable strategy, even if you’re not particularly good at it. This has led to a homogenization of the shot profiles. Last year, the highest and lowest 3-point attempt rates were separated by 11.9 percentage points, which was the smallest spread of the century.

Don’t expect the league’s 3-point attempt rate to rise to 44% this season – over the past five years, teams have consistently made slightly fewer 3-pointers in games than in exhibitions – but it appears to be an NBA all-time high probably . Just as the Rockets’ “Moreyball,” named after general manager Daryl Morey, drove league strategy in the late 2010s, “Mazzulla Ball” could do the same in the 2020s.

“I would say it’s a good thing. I would say our sport is doing well,” Budenholzer told the media. “The range and the skill and the way these guys play — I think that creates more room to get to the basket in a more athletic and dynamic way.”

Teams can focus on attempting 3s all they want, but ultimately making them is more important. Last season, each of the 16 teams that performed at least the NBA average behind the line finished with a record of 46-36 or better. Almost every other team missed the playoffs.