NBA 2024-25 season preview: Predictions for every team, over/under bets and more

It’s late October, which means meaningful NBA games are back! It’s been four months since the Boston Celtics completed a dominant 2023-24 season with a record 18th championship. Now, the 2024-25 season is here, beginning with a classic matchup between those Celtics and the resurgent New York Knicks.

We’ve had 133 days to ponder the questions that will define this chapter in hoops history. Can Boston become the first team to repeat as champions since the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors? Have the Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers leveled up enough in the offseason to dethrone their old rivals?

And what of the loaded Western Conference? Will this season be a coronation for the young Oklahoma City Thunder, who shocked many in earning the West’s No. 1 seed last season? Is Dallas’ addition of Klay Thompson enough to push last season’s surprise finalist over the top? What about other contenders like Anthony Edwards’ Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokić’s Denver Nuggets, Ja Morant’s Memphis Grizzlies or Zion Williamson’s New Orleans Pelicans? And after leading Team USA to a memorable gold medal in Paris, can LeBron James, Stephen Curry and/or Kevin Durant turn back the clock one more time to revive the Los Angeles Lakers, Warriors and Phoenix Suns?

Here are The Athletic’s highlights from the NBA offseason and preseason, including predictions, previews, deep dives and so much more. Consider it a cheat sheet to prepare for the NBA’s return.

What happened this summer?

Get ready to learn “second apron,” buddy

The NBA’s new collective bargaining agreement brought in a series of punitive salary-cap restrictions designed to curb spending, ensure a more even financial playing field and redistribute talent across the league. The most (in)famous is known as the “second apron.” Technically, it refers to a team salary threshold, set about $18 million over the luxury tax line, that brings significant financial penalties and roster-building restrictions to any team that exceeds it. Simply put, most teams are treating it as a de facto hard cap they cannot exceed at any point — even if it requires shedding talented players for financial reasons.

The fear of the second apron and other prohibitive salary-cap penalties loomed in nearly every key offseason move, from the LA Clippers’ decision to move on from a nine-time All-Star to the Timberwolves trading a four-time All-Star and one-time face of the franchise after arguably the most successful season in franchise history.

The likely effect of the new CBA? Parity, and lots of it. In a five-part series, The Athletic explored the conditions leading to a more level playing field than at any point in league history.

Paul George switches coasts

After five uneven years as Kawhi Leonard’s running mate in his hometown Los Angeles, George’s Clippers tenure is over. The Clippers grew fearful of the financial implications of paying the 34-year-old George a max contract, allowing the Philadelphia 76ers to swoop in and claim free agency’s biggest prize. George now joins Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in a big three that may finally be the one to bring a championship back to Broad Street.

Splash Brothers split

It seemed impossible to imagine Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson ever donning another uniform. But after a difficult season and a sometimes-bitter contract dispute, Thompson opted to leave the Warriors and sign with the Dallas Mavericks. While Thompson hopes to use his shooting touch to put the Mavericks over the top after last season’s NBA Finals run, Curry and Draymond Green are left to shepherd a Warriors team in transition.

Bing bong, New York is back

What’s the opposite of resting on your laurels? It’s what the Knicks did this summer after inspiring their rabid fan base with the longest playoff run in nearly 25 years. Blockbuster trades for Mikal Bridges and Karl-Anthony Towns, along with a below-market extension for emerging New York hero Jalen Brunson, has the Knicks thinking title for the first time since the halcyon days of Patrick Ewing.

Like father, like son

In a 2022 interview with The Athletic’s Jason Lloyd, LeBron James vowed to one day play with his oldest son. That dream became reality on June 28 when the Lakers used the No. 55 pick in the draft to select Bronny James. Soon, father and son will make history across American team sports and share the court in a regular-season game.

John Hollinger’s previews and predictions

The Athletic’s front-office insider has spent more than two decades previewing NBA seasons, dating back to the original “Pro Basketball Prospectus” release in 2002. Here’s how he projects each team to finish in the regular season.

First, his detailed analysis: East top 8 | East bottom 7 | West top 8 | West bottom 7

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics: 62-20
2. Cleveland Cavaliers: 56-26
3. New York Knicks: 51-31
4. Philadelphia 76ers: 50-32
5. Orlando Magic: 47-35
6. Milwaukee Bucks: 46-36

7. Indiana Pacers: 44-38
8. Miami Heat: 42-40
9. Atlanta Hawks: 39-43
10. Toronto Raptors: 32-50

11. Detroit Pistons: 28-54
12. Chicago Bulls: 27-55
13. Charlotte Hornets: 23-59
14. Brooklyn Nets: 21-61
15. Washington Wizards: 14-68

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder: 61-21
2. Phoenix Suns: 52-30
T-3. Dallas Mavericks: 51-31
T-3. Minnesota Timberwolves: 51-31
5. Denver Nuggets: 49-33
6. New Orleans Pelicans: 47-35

7. Golden State Warriors: 46-36
8. Los Angeles Lakers: 45-37
9. Sacramento Kings: 44-38
10. Houston Rockets: 43-39

11. Memphis Grizzlies: 40-42
12. San Antonio Spurs: 37-45
13. LA Clippers: 36-46
14. Utah Jazz: 26-56
15. Portland Trail Blazers: 20-62

Here are more of Hollinger’s fearless predictions, including his pick for MVP and champion.

Let’s make some picks

Over at The Bounce, The Athletic’s free daily NBA newsletter, Zach Harper has been delivering bite-sized capsules and over/under picks for each of the 30 NBA teams. Here are his picks, in order of highest to lowest over/under.

Not signed up for The Bounce? Get your daily dose of The Athletic in your email.

(All odds supplied by BetMGM.)

Boston Celtics — 58.5: Easy OVER

Team savior: Jaylen Brown, the NBA Finals MVP
The problem: Complacency and parity.
The question: Should we be worried about Kristaps Porziņģis’ health?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Joe Mazzulla wins Coach of the Year after 65 wins.

Oklahoma City Thunder — 57.5: Easy OVER

Team savior: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, clutch killer
The problem: Experience? This team is loaded.
The question: Is this team able to recreate what Boston did last season?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: The Thunder make the NBA Finals.

New York Knicks — 54.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Karl-Anthony Towns, franchise big man
The problem: Health and interior defense
The question: Do the Knicks have enough firepower to win the East?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: KAT makes All-NBA Third Team for the third time in his career.

Minnesota Timberwolves — 52.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Anthony Edwards, ascending star
The problem: Trading KAT for Julius Randle
The question: Is Julius Randle going to fit into Edwards’ offense?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Randle gets moved before the trade deadline.

Denver Nuggets — 51.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Nikola Jokić, cleans up messes
The problem: Depth to replace Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
The question: Is Jamal Murray going to play like the second star they need?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Christian Braun finishes top three in Most Improved Player.

Milwaukee Bucks — 50.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Damian Lillard, revenge tour
The problem: Khris Middleton isn’t healthy.
The question: Can Doc Rivers unlock the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard duo?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Giannis and Dame both average 30 points per game.

Philadelphia 76ers — 50.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Paul George, Swiss Army knife
The problem: Getting Joel Embiid healthy to the playoffs.
The question: Are the Sixers going to become an elite offense with their big three?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Embiid, PG and Tyrese Maxey combine for 85 points per game.

Dallas Mavericks — 49.5: Easy OVER

Team savior: Luka Dončić, the franchise
The problem: Finding the right balance of offense and defense.
The question: Was the defense late last season a fluke, or can they be elite for an entire year?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Klay Thompson shoots career-best 45 percent from 3 or better.

Cleveland Cavaliers — 48.5: OVER

Team savior: Evan Mobley, franchise big man
The problem: Duplicative centers and lead guards
The question: Will Jarrett Allen and/or Darius Garland be moved?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: The Cavs earn the No. 7 seed from the Play-In Tournament.

Phoenix Suns — 47.5: Easy OVER

Team savior: Mike Budenholzer, system coach
The problem: Staying healthy enough for continuity.
The question: Did Tyus Jones as the PG fix their issues?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Suns finish with a top-two offense (ninth last season).

Orlando Magic — 47.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, glue guy
The problem: They can’t shoot or score.
The question: Can KCP provide enough veteran leadership to make the leap?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Franz Wagner shoots over 38 percent from 3-point range.

Memphis Grizzlies — 47.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Ja Morant, unquestionably
The problem: Outside shooting, depth
The question: Will the Grizzlies remain healthy enough to compete for the top six?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Zach Edey starts 75 games and averages a double-double.

New Orleans Pelicans — 46.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Zion Williamson, destroyer of worlds
The problem: Lack of interior depth.
The question: Will this team trade their abundance of perimeter guys for a big man?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Williamson plays 75 games and makes All-NBA Second Team.

Indiana Pacers — 46.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Tyrese Haliburton, All-NBA guard
The problem: This team doesn’t play defense.
The question: Was their conference finals appearance a fluke?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Pascal Siakam averages a career-high 25.0 points per game.

Sacramento Kings — 46.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: DeMar DeRozan, third guy
The problem: Their defense hasn’t been trustworthy.
The question: Does DeRozan get them back into the top six in the West?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: They earn the No. 7 seed in the Play-In Tournament.

Miami Heat — 44.5: OVER

Team savior: Jimmy Butler, the team engine
The problem: Lack of depth, firepower
The question: Does contract year Jimmy lead a Heat resurgence?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Bam Adebayo makes 100 3-pointers. He has 23 for his career.

Golden State Warriors — 43.5: Easy OVER

Team savior: Stephen Curry, problem solver
The problem: They don’t have a second option on offense.
The question: Do the Warriors have enough to make a trade for a star?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Curry leads the league in scoring.

Los Angeles Lakers — 43.5: Easy OVER

Team savior: JJ Redick, potential offensive guru
The problem: Neither good enough on offense or defense.
The question: Will Redick revamp the offense to make them top six in the West?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: They trade D’Angelo Russell before the deadline.

Houston Rockets — 43.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Alperen Şengün, middle management Jokić
The problem: Generating enough efficient offense.
The question: Which Jalen Green will this team get this season?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: End up in the Play-In Tournament but contend for top six until April.

LA Clippers — Off the Board

Team savior: James Harden, Houston edition
The problem: Kawhi Leonard isn’t healthy again.
The question: Can their depth cover on nights without Leonard?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: The Clippers miss out on the Play-In Tournament.

Atlanta Hawks — 36.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Trae Young, franchise point guard
The problem: They can’t get out of their own way.
The question: Are the Hawks finally prepared to progress?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶
Bold prediction: They make a bad trade before the deadline.

San Antonio Spurs — 35.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Chris Paul, to run the show
The problem: Having enough experience to win close games.
The question: Is Victor Wembanyama already good enough to flirt with 40 wins?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Wemby averages 25 points, 13 rebounds, five blocks and five assists.

Charlotte Hornets — 30.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Charles Lee
The problem: This team doesn’t know how to win.
The question: Will LaMelo Ball stay healthy to lead them?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Ball, Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller each average 20 points per game.

Toronto Raptors — 29.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Scottie Barnes, designated franchise guy
The problem: This team isn’t good on offense or defense.
The question: Will the Raptors commit to another tank with this draft class?
Coach hot seat meter: 🔥
Bold prediction: Immanuel Quickley averages 20 points and eight assists per game.

Utah Jazz — 28.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Lauri Markkanen, No. 1(?) option
The problem: They don’t know when to tank.
The question: Will they tank early to avoid missing out on the 2025 draft stars?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Cody Williams wins Rookie of the Year.

Chicago Bulls — 27.5: Slight UNDER

Team savior: Matas Buzelis, lottery pick
The problem: Too good to be bad, too bad to be good
The question: Can they unload Nikola Vučević and Zach LaVine to tear it down?
Coach hot seat meter: 🔥🔥🔥
Bold prediction: Lonzo Ball plays in 65 games.

Detroit Pistons — 25.5: Slight OVER

Team savior: Cade Cunningham, franchise guy
The problem: They don’t have great veterans to help youth.
The question: Can J.B. Bickerstaff coach them to avoid double-digit losing streaks?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: They acquire a key veteran to help Cunningham before the deadline.

Portland Trail Blazers — 21.5: Easy UNDER

Team savior: Anfernee Simons, bucket-getter
The problem: Keeping the young guys on the floor to develop.
The question: Will Scoot Henderson show us the goods this season?
Coach hot seat meter: 🔥🔥
Bold prediction: Henderson averages 16 points and seven assists while playing 70 games.

Washington Wizards — 20.5: Easy UNDER

Team savior: Alex Sarr, franchise big man(?)
The problem: Consistently have an unfocused team culture.
The question: Are we going to get a Jordan Poole who cares?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Poole finishes top five in scoring. I’ll die on this hill.

Brooklyn Nets — 19.5: Easy UNDER

Team savior: Cam Thomas, bucket-getter
The problem: They will be tough to watch.
The question: Will they trade Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith?
Coach hot seat meter: 🥶🥶🥶🥶🥶
Bold prediction: Ben Simmons is back! What does that mean? I don’t know.

5 other stories you must read

• Is this the year we finally get a healthy, fully unleashed Zion Williamson? Will Guillory goes inside Zion’s offseason to understand why this summer appears to be a turning point in his quest for vengeance.

• Victor Wembanyama took the NBA by storm as a rookie. What can we expect from the 7-foot-4 Spurs sensation in Year 2? Use your imagination, writes Doug Haller.

• Cooper Flagg is the prize of this upcoming draft class, but what about the rest of the class? Sam Vecenie introduces you to the other prospects lottery teams will want to watch.

• Barring a last-minute reversal, this will be the last season of TNT’s iconic “Inside the NBA” show. David Aldridge, who spent years as a TNT broadcaster and reporter, pays tribute to the end of an institution.

• Is there anything we can take away from the preseason? Will Guillory, Fred Katz and Josh Robbins paid attention so you wouldn’t have to.

And finally …

Want to keep up with each night of NBA action. Check out “The Daily,” our new podcast featuring Dave DuFour, Zena Keita, Esfandiar Baraheni and regular appearances by your favorite writers at The Athletic. New episodes will be released at 6 a.m. ET from Monday to Saturday. Listeners can tune in on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever they get their podcasts.

(Top photo of Luka Dončić and Jayson Tatum: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images)