What are the odds for election bets? Expert explains why Trump is the favorite

“More than $2 billion has already been bet on the election,” Maxim Lott, who runs ElectionBettingOdds.com, told Fox News Digital.

The comments come as Lott’s website, which uses data from five different betting sites to show a betting average, shows Trump has a 58.5% chance of winning the presidential election as of Monday.

Lott’s website isn’t the only one tracking betting odds. Popular websites like RealClearPolitics, which have become known over the years for tracking poll averages, are also joining the fray.

Trump opens up his biggest betting lead in days after Biden’s exit

Like ElectionBettingOdds.com, the RealClearPolitics betting average shows Trump as the favorite with a 59% chance of winning the election as of Monday.

Trump’s chances of winning the election have increased dramatically in recent weeks, with his Democratic opponent, Vice President Harris, the betting favorite as recently as October 4 at RealClearPolitics. But Trump took the lead the next day and didn’t let it slide, eventually rising to the nearly 20 percentage point lead the former president enjoyed on Monday.

For Lott, looking at betting averages gives people a much clearer picture of what the most likely outcome of the election is compared to trying to piece together polls.

“This information is really accurate, it’s more accurate than just trying to look at polls, or especially more accurate than listening to the pundits’ nonsense,” Lott said.

“[The bettors] “Look at all sorts of historical data, they look at trends,” he added. “I find the percentages more useful than the surveys.”

Check out FOX NEWS’ latest power rankings in the 2024 election

Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Harris speaks to the media at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee on October 17, 2024. (SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Lott, who previously served as an executive program producer for the Fox Business Network, also noted that people risk their own money to bet on an outcome, creating a market that has the ability to “discipline” people who do something wrong.

“If you’re not very smart or very biased, you’re going to lose your money pretty quickly and then maybe stop betting in the next election,” Lott said.

While betting on elections is newer than more well-known gambling games like sports betting and casino gaming, Lott said the market has become robust enough to offer election supporters insight into the most likely outcome.

“Last cycle we traded over a billion dollars. That’s still the case.” [not] So much if you compare it with… the stock market or something, but it’s enough that we have a reliable indicator and that’s it [is] “That’s important to us as users who just want to know what’s going to happen,” Lott said.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally on October 19, 2024 at Arnold Palmer Regional Airport in Latrobe, Pennsylvania. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)

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As for Trump’s lead, Lott said it likely reflects the end of the “honeymoon period” that Harris enjoyed after he was named the Democratic nominee, pointing out that the likelihood of Trump winning the election rose to about 70% before President Biden dropped his candidacy and has returned to the top once again.

“Things have kind of gone back to normal — it’s a tough cycle for Democrats with things like inflation and immigration, and so maybe for a few months people thought, ‘Oh, Harris, that’s interesting, that’s new. “That’s refreshing,” and then it dawns on me: “This is the same administration we didn’t like with Biden,” Lott said.

Get the latest updates on the 2024 election, exclusive interviews and more at our Fox News Digital Election Center.