What early voting polls say about the 2024 election

Millions of Americans have already cast their ballots in the 2024 election, although early voting results offer just a glimpse of candidates’ performance in what is expected to be one of the closest elections in history.

Almost every state offers some form of early voting in the weeks leading up to Election Day. Polls opened in Florida and Texas on Monday, while key swing states like Georgia and Nevada opened their polls last week.

Preliminary polls have shown Vice President Kamala Harris well ahead of former President Donald Trump among voters who turned out early to vote, but that lead is hardly an indication of who is ahead overall. Democratic voters tend to be more supportive of early voting than Republicans, and Trump has repeatedly made baseless claims that mail-in voting options present the possibility of voter fraud.

But this fall, Trump and Republicans changed course and encouraged voters to cast their ballots in any way they could, although Trump has still called early voting “stupid stuff.”

“We have to go out and vote,” the Republican candidate told his supporters at a rally in Pennsylvania last month. “And you can start right away. You know that, right? Now we have this stupid stuff where you can vote 45 days early. I wonder what the hell happens in these 45 days.”

Where did early voting start?

47 states and the District of Columbia offer early voting and absentee voting to all registered voters.

Early voting dates vary by state. Polls opened in Minnesota, South Dakota, Virginia and Vermont in September. In states like Kentucky and Oklahoma, early voting opens less than a week before Election Day.

Two key swing states — Georgia and North Carolina — saw record turnout on the first day of early voting this election cycle. More than 310,000 votes were cast in the Peach State on Tuesday, and as of Friday, more than 1 million voters had cast their decision either in person or by mail. In North Carolina, election officials said more than 353,000 ballots were cast on the first day of early voting on Thursday.

Some states — Alabama, Mississippi and New Hampshire — do not offer any form of early voting unless a voter has an excuse, such as military deployment. In places like North Dakota and Pennsylvania, early voting is implemented by county officials rather than at the state level.

Who is leading the polls?

Polls have shown Harris with a significant lead among early voters. In a survey published on Monday by USA today and Suffolk University, the number of vice presidents rose 63 percent to 34 percent of those who have already voted.

However, the same poll showed Trump ahead by double digits among those who said they planned to vote on Election Day, with Harris leading 52 percent to 35 percent. The survey was conducted by telephone from Oct. 14 to 18 and was based on responses from 1,000 potential voters.

As of Monday, nearly 14.5 million people have voted by mail or in person in the 2024 election, according to NBC News, which uses voter data collection firm TargetSmart. Of those voters, 46 percent are Democrats, while 29 percent are registered Republicans. A quarter of early voters are not affiliated with any of the major parties.

Almost equal numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans voted early in several key battleground states. In Georgia, 49 percent of all early votes came from Republicans, while 46 percent came from Democrats. The gap was similar Monday in Nevada (40 percent Democrat, 35 percent Republican) and North Carolina (36 percent Democrat, 33 percent Republican).

In Arizona, registered Republican voters slightly outnumber Democrats, 44 percent to 35 percent. Democrats are clearly ahead in Pennsylvania (67 percent to 27 percent), Minnesota (54 percent to 36 percent) and Wisconsin (40 percent to 19 percent).

Most forecasters expect this year’s matchup between Harris and Trump to be a mistake. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris was ahead of Trump by 1.8 points in the average of all national polls on Monday (48.2 percent to 46.4 percent). But the polling station’s voting model favors Trump’s victory in the Electoral College by 52 percent to 48 percent.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris and Trump are also tied in most battleground states, although the former president has a slight lead in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona as of Monday.

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Anna Kelly asked for comment on early voting Newsweek via email: “Even after Democrats spent over $200 million to redefine Kamala Harris, President Trump is winning or tied in every battleground because his message resonates with voters across the country.”

Newsweek Harris’ campaign emailed for comment Monday.

When is election day?

According to federal law, Election Day always falls on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. This year the election falls on November 5th.

Election Day is not recognized as a federal holiday, although about a dozen states observe it as a holiday, meaning most state offices are closed on the day. Most states also offer their employees time off to vote.

What happens if Trump loses?

Many experts have warned that the former president and his allies are already sowing doubt in the election to challenge the results if he loses next month.

Trump has claimed that the 2020 presidential election, in which he lost to President Joe Biden, was stolen from him due to voter fraud. There is no evidence to support such claims, but some of Trump’s closest confidants, including Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, have repeatedly debunked criticism of this year’s election system. After early voting opened in her state last week, Greene promoted the well-known conspiracy theory that Dominion Voting Systems machines were “swinging” early voting toward Democrats. Dominion and Georgia officials have denied such claims.

During a news conference Monday in North Carolina, Trump told reporters he had “seen no signs” that this year’s election would not be fair, although he added that he “knows the other side and it is not good.” “.

Unlike four years ago, this time Trump does not have the same powers as president if he is dissatisfied with the election results. However, as a private citizen, he could still challenge the election through the legal system – Trump filed several lawsuits challenging the 2020 election results, but all of them were dismissed in court.

Last month, Trump threatened prison sentences against “lawyers, political activists, donors, illegal voters and corrupt election officials” who are proven to have “cheated” if he wins a second term in the White House. He also recently threatened to use military force against the “enemy from within” if he were victorious in November.

Trump campaign spokesman Steve Cheung said Newsweek Over the weekend, he said the former president was “100% right”: “Those who want to undermine democracy by sowing chaos in our elections are a direct threat, just like the terrorist from Afghanistan who was arrested, because he planned several attacks in the United States on election day.”

How does this year compare to 2020?

The 2020 presidential election, held amid the COVID-19 pandemic, saw record numbers of early voters, and Democrats outnumbered their Republican counterparts significantly.

As of October 16, 2020, over 22 million Americans had cast their votes, representing 16 percent of all votes cast in the 2016 presidential election. At this point in the election, Democrats outvoted Republicans 2-1, according to the Associated Press.

As of October 25, 2020, nearly 60 million people had voted in the general election, according to University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald, who tracks voting on his website ElectProject.org. At this point in the race, Democrats still outnumbered Republicans 2-1 in mail-in ballots, but the parties were about even in those who voted in person.

As of November 1, 2020, 93 million ballots have been cast, according to McDonald. The 2020 election saw the largest increase in voting between presidential elections in U.S. history, with 17 million more people voting than in 2016.