Can BYU win the Big 12 Championship? This is what the numbers say – Deseret News

Just a few months ago, most BYU fans would have been thrilled if the Cougars had made it to a bowl game this year.

However, after a surprising 7-0 start, the ceiling for Kalani Sitake’s squad appears to be much higher. BYU is ranked No. 11 nationally and continues to show up in the midseason College Football Playoff predictions. Not even fans with the bluest glasses would have expected such a reality last summer.

The Cougars may be one of the most compelling stories in sports in 2024, but the fairytale could become even more magical before the clock strikes midnight in Provo. If the season ends today, BYU would face Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game on Dec. 7 in Arlington. Not too bad for a team looking to finish 13th in the league’s preseason poll.

But there’s still a lot of football to be played before anyone goes to “Jerry World.” Heck, we haven’t even reached Halloween yet and the Big 12 isn’t exactly the most predictable league around. They don’t call it the “Conference of Chaos” for nothing.

With five contests left to play, the Cougars find themselves in a six-way race for the title. Soon the competing schools will emerge as true contenders or mere contenders, but until such a triage occurs in the field, we have a useful tool for speculating the results ourselves: mathematics.

ESPN Analytics uses a variety of formulas – including Football Power Index (FPI), record strength and more – to predict specific outcomes for each individual college football game. I looked at the algorithm’s predictions for every remaining Big 12 contest this season to find out how the end-of-year standings could play out – and who could be playing for a championship on December 7th.

Below are the six current Big 12 league leaders and their respective remaining schedules. Each game takes into account the current percentage chance that ESPN Analytics gives the team that day, with overall and conference records added together based on the algorithm’s decision.

Injuries, coaching changes, recent game results and a number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate in the coming weeks, but for now we’ll stick with what they say today. And while such data should never be fully trusted, Cougar fans who consider themselves analytics buffs might want to take a look at trips to Texas in early December.

BYU

Current record: 7-0 (4-0 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• at UCF — 45.5%
• in Utah – 55.6%
• vs. Kansas – 64.3%
• at Arizona State – 53.6%
• against Houston – 86.9%

Analytics-based predicted end data set: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).

Iowa State

Current record: 7-0 (4-0 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• vs. Texas Tech – 82.2%
• in Kansas – 58.9%
• against Cincinnati – 72.7%
• in Utah – 63.8%
• vs. Kansas State – 51.9%

Analytics-based predicted end data set: 12-0 (9-0 in Big 12 play).

Colorado

Current record: 5-2 (3-1 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• against Cincinnati – 62.8%
• at Texas Tech – 65.9%
• vs Utah – 70.3%
• in Kansas – 54%
• vs. Oklahoma State – 68.8%

Analysis-based predicted end data set: 10-2 (8-1 in Big 12 play).

Kansas State

Current record: 6-1 (3-1 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• vs. Kansas – 75.2%
• in Houston – 86.6%
• vs. Arizona State – 81.9%
• against Cincinnati – 76.2%
• at Iowa State – 48.1%

Analysis-based predicted end data set: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12 play).

Cincinnati

Current record: 5-2 (3-1 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• in Colorado – 31.8%
• against West Virginia – 61.3%
• at Iowa State – 27.3%
• at Kansas State – 23.8%
• vs TCU – 62.1%

Analytics-based predicted end data set: 7-5 (5-4 in Big 12 play).

Texas Tech

Current record: 5-2 (3-1 in Big 12 play)

Remaining schedule

• at TCU – 39.2%
• at Iowa State – 17.8%
• vs. Colorado – 31.4%
• at Oklahoma State – 37.1%
• against West Virginia – 55.4%

Analysis-based predicted end data set: 6-6 (4-5 in Big 12 play).

Analysis-based projected final Big 12 rankings

1. Iowa State – 12-0 (9-0)
2. BYU – 11-1 (8-1)
3. Colorado – 10-2 (8-1)
4. Kansas State – 10-2 (7-2)
5. Cincinnati – 7-5 (5-4)
6. UCF – 7-5 (5-4)
7. Baylor – 7-5 (5-4)
8. TCU – 7-5 (5-4)
9. Arizona State – 7-5 (4-5)
10. Texas Tech – 6-6 (4-5)
11. West Virginia – 5-7 (4-5)
12. Utah – 5-7 (2-7)
13. Oklahoma State – 5-7 (2-7)
14. Arizona – 4-8 (2-7)
15. Kansas – 2-10 (1-8)
16. Houston – 2-10 (1-8)

Big 12 Championship Game matchup: No. 2 BYU vs. No. 1 Iowa State.

What are the Big 12 tiebreaker guidelines?

As shown in the rankings above, ESPN’s analysis projects BYU and Colorado to hold the same conference record at the end of the season, while the Cougars will be the ones facing Iowa State in the championship game.

This is due to the Big 12’s tiebreaker rules – in this case, BYU gets the nod over Colorado because the Buffaloes’ only league loss came to Kansas State, which the Cougars beat.

According to the Big 12 rulebook, here is the newly created list of tiebreaker guidelines for two teams:

1. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams
2. Winning percentage against all common conference opponents among tied teams
3. Winning percentage against the next highest common opponent in the standings
4. Combined win percentage in conference games of conference opponents
5. Total number of wins in a 12-game season
6. Highest ranking by SportSource Analytics
7. Coin toss