Analysis: Leaks and spy rings only delay the inevitable Israeli operation

Allegedly leaked documents from the US National Security Agency and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, as well as Tehran’s ongoing intelligence operations, aim to thwart Israel’s plans to respond to Iran’s recent ballistic missile attack on Israel. Regardless, Iran is preparing for an Israeli attack that may target its nuclear facilities, and Israel remains undeterred, especially after Hezbollah’s failed attempt to eliminate Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The alleged leak, described by CNN and Axios as a serious security breach, supposedly outlines the extent of Israel’s possible attack on the Islamic Republic. The two documents were published on October 17 on the pro-Iranian Telegram channel Middle East Spectator. They are marked “top secret” and contain notices that they are intended exclusively for the United States and its “Five Eyes” partners: Australia, Canada, New Zealand and the United Kingdom.

The satellite analysis, allegedly prepared by the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, says that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has handled air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) ​​and moved various munitions, while there is no evidence of intended use of nuclear weapons.

The other document, apparently from the National Security Agency, details the IAF’s recent activities, including air exercises, intelligence operations and the relocation of advanced munitions. The leak claims that the IAF transferred 16 Golden Horizon missiles, likely an Israeli Sparrow missile variant, which were used to attack an Iranian S-300 outpost near the Natanz nuclear facility. The document added that Israel deployed 40 ROCKS IS02 air-to-surface standoff missiles developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems.

The filing also said that the IAF conducted two air exercises on October 15 and 16, during which aerial refueling was practiced using three KC-707 tanker aircraft and a Gulfstream G550 aircraft. Additionally, it suggests that the IAF has installed stealth screens over six F-15I fighter jets capable of firing ALMBs, and suggests that Israel has deployed surveillance UAVs to monitor various targets.

This is not the first time that leaked documents have revealed the imminent threat of a large-scale Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic. In 2012 Foreign policy reported that Israel was planning attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities through air bases in the Republic of Azerbaijan. The seemingly deliberate leak reportedly disrupted the conduct of the operation, with many officials claiming that elements within the then-U.S. government were trying to prevent Israel from attacking Iranian nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, Israel recently uncovered a Tehran-led spy ring consisting of seven Israeli-Azerbaijani dual nationals. Prosecutors said on October 21 that the suspects allegedly collected information about Israel Defense Forces (IDF) facilities, including the Nevatim and Ramat David air bases, which have been attacked by Iranian ballistic missiles and Hezbollah in recent weeks. The defendants are also accused of gathering information about Iron Dome batteries, ports, energy infrastructure and an unnamed “senior security official.”

Despite the leaks and Tehran’s intelligence operations, the regime still expects a strong Israeli response that could target Iranian nuclear facilities. A day after the revelation, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened that “any attack on Iranian nuclear facilities or similar attacks will be met with the necessary response.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei confirmed these remarks and confirmed that Tehran had sent a formal letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arguing that an attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution 533 is not permitted.

A recent escalation by the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance has put even more pressure on Israel to mount a decisive response. A drone launched by Hezbollah on October 19 hit the Israeli prime minister’s residence, prompting Netanyahu to immediately issue a warning: “The agents of Iran who tried to assassinate me and my wife today have made a serious mistake. “

Apparently aware of its misjudgment amid rising tensions, Iran quickly backed down on its involvement in the attack. Tasnim Newsclosely linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, initially welcomed the attack as a “historic event” but then quickly distanced itself, claiming that “Hezbollah’s involvement in the attack is controversial.” The Islamic Republic’s mission to the United Nations also denied any involvement in the attack.

Apparently Israel is undeterred by Hezbollah’s latest attack and Tehran’s threats. Israel’s N12 News quoted anonymous political officials as claiming that Jerusalem’s response will become harsher as a result of the UAV attack. Israel’s security cabinet concluded a six-hour meeting on October 20 to discuss Israel’s upcoming operation and agree to short-term authorization of the strikes to ensure operational security.

Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies who focuses on Iran’s internal affairs and the Islamic Republic’s damaging influence in the region.

Tags: Axis of Resistance, IDF, Iran, Israel