The leaked US assessment of Israel’s attack plans against Iran shows

US investigators are trying to figure out how two top secret intelligence documents were leaked online.

The documents, which appeared on messaging app Telegram on Friday, reveal details of the Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) plans for upcoming missile attacks on Iran.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on Monday President Joe Biden was “deeply concerned” about the leak.

Officials have not determined whether the documents were released as a result of a hack or a leak, Mr. Kirby said.

For three weeks, Israel has vowed to hit Iran hard in retaliation for Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1.

Iran says this was in response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on September 27.

Almost certainly, yes.

Military analysts say the wording used in the headlines appears credible and is consistent with similar classified documents uncovered in the past.

They are titled “Top Secret” and bear the acronym “FGI,” which stands for “Foreign Government Intelligence.”

The documents appear to have been passed to intelligence agencies of the Five Eyes alliance, the five Western nations that regularly exchange intelligence information, namely the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

The acronym “TK” in the documents refers to “Talent Keyhole,” a code word for satellite-based signals intelligence (SIGINT) and imagery intelligence (IMINT).

Taken together, the two documents represent a secret U.S. assessment of Israeli preparations to attack targets in Iran, based on geospatial data collected and analyzed on October 15 and 16.

Particularly noteworthy is the mention of two ABLM (Air Launched Ballistic Missile) systems: Golden Horizon and Rocks.

Rocks is a long-range missile system from Israeli company Rafael designed to attack a variety of targets both above and below ground. “Golden Horizon” is said to refer to the Blue Sparrow missile system with a range of about 2,000 km (1,240 miles).

The significance of this is that it suggests that the Israeli Air Force is planning a similar but greatly expanded version of its ABLM attack on an Iranian radar site near Isfahan in April.

Launching these weapons from long range and far from Iran’s borders would avoid the need for Israeli warplanes to fly over certain countries in the region, such as Jordan.

According to the documents, there are also no signs that Israel is preparing to activate its nuclear deterrent.

At Israel’s request, the US government never publicly admits that its close ally Israel even has nuclear weapons, which has caused some embarrassment in Washington.

These documents lack any indication of which targets Israel intends to attack in Iran and when.

The United States has made no secret of its opposition to attacks on Iran’s nuclear research facilities or oil facilities.

What remains are military bases, most likely those of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliated Basij militias, as these two institutions are seen as the backbone of the Islamic Republic, expanding its military reach abroad and suppressing popular protest at home .

As for the timing, many had expected that Israel would have carried out its promised retaliation by now. But in April, Iran waited 12 days before retaliating after an attack on Israel with a barrage of 300 drones and missiles An Israeli airstrike hit its diplomatic buildings in Damascus, killing several senior IRGC commanders.

Part of the current delay in Israel’s response is likely due to US fears of an escalation less than a month before the US presidential election.

Possibly yes, from someone who wanted to ruin Israel’s plans.

Iran has large and sophisticated cyberwarfare capabilities, so the possibility of an enemy hack is also being investigated.

If these documents are most likely genuine, they show that despite the close defense ties between the US and Israel, Washington is still spying on its ally in case it is not given the full picture.

They show that the Israeli Air Force’s plans to carry out some kind of widespread retaliation against Iran are well advanced and that countermeasures are being taken against an expected Iranian response.

In short, if Israel actually implements these plans, the Middle East will once again experience a period of extreme tension.