Here’s what to watch in Texas as early voting begins and Election Day approaches

Early voting begins today for the Nov. 5 election that will determine the course of Texas politics.

The presidential race is at the top of the Texas ticket. And while there wasn’t much Texas drama in the contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the margin of the Lone Star contest — which Trump is expected to win — could impact the voting results.

Here’s what to keep an eye on as the general election season comes to a close.

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz is a veteran of tough races.

In 2018, he beat Democrat Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points.

Now Cruz is in a feud with Colin Allred, the three-term congressman from Dallas.

Polls show the race in the single digits. Democrats haven’t won a statewide contest since 1994, and Allred marks the party’s best chance to prevail since O’Rourke.

Related:Ted Cruz and Colin Allred comment on the abortion and immigration debate in Texas

Both candidates storm the final hurdle.

Cruz is in the middle of a 50-city Texas bus tour. His rallies are about keeping Texas as a conservative state. He warns that his opponent is too liberal.

Since Republican voters outnumber Democrats in statewide elections, Cruz must keep conservative voters in check. That’s why one of his attack phrases against Allred at rallies is: “Let’s keep Texas, Texas.”

Allred, whose recent campaign stops have included El Paso, Houston, Round Rock and Missouri City, has a tougher job.

Although he hopes for strong Democratic turnout, his main focus has been to appeal to independents and some Republicans. Two of his key surrogates in the campaign — former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and former Judge Glen Whitley of Tarrant County — are Republicans.

Whitely represented Allred in the spin room after the first and only debate last week.

Related:Key takeaways from the combative debate between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred

In addition to independents and Republicans, Allred is also reaching out to the more than 2.5 million voters who have been added to the Texas voter rolls since 2018. Cruz also speaks to these voters.

The conclusion: The race hinges on Allred’s ability to penetrate Cruz’s base and maximize Democratic turnout. This is a difficult task in Texas.

Harris and Trump have focused their campaigns on seven swing states, even though most polls show the contest for Texas in the single digits. In 2020, Trump beat Biden in Texas by 5.6 percentage points. A poll released last week by the University of Houston shows Trump leading Harris by five points.

Even if the candidates believe the outcome in Texas is not in doubt, their performance at the front of the pack could influence crucial races as the vote continues.

A Harris surge beyond what Biden achieved in 2020 would give Allred a boost. Likewise, Cruz will benefit if Trump meets expectations or overperforms in Texas.

Other races could also be affected, including key Texas House races in Dallas and Collin counties.

The conclusion: The presidential candidates are passing Texas in the campaign, but they are the main drivers of voter turnout and have coattails that pull the candidates up or down in the campaign.

State Representatives Morgan Meyer of University Park and Angie Chen Button of Richardson are the last Republicans in the Legislature from Dallas County. For years, Democrats have hoped the duo could suffer defeat and have come close over the past decade.

In 2021, lawmakers redrew the state’s legislative boundaries to make those districts more favorable to incumbent Republicans.

Still, a larger-than-expected Democratic turnout in one of the state’s bluest districts could derail Meyer or Button, who are running against Democrats Elizabeth Ginsberg and Averie Bishop, respectively.

Another race to watch is in Collin County’s District 70, where Republican Steve Kinard is challenging incumbent Democrat Mihaela Plesa.

In 2022, Plesa won the Democratic-leaning district 50% to 49% against Republican Jamee Jolly.

The three local contests could shake up legislative politics, particularly Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s push for a voucher-like program for private schools. Abbott says he has the votes needed to approve a plan when the Legislature convenes in January, although it could be derailed by Republican losses in the November general election.

The conclusion: There are few contested general elections across the state, but those contests could influence what legislation is passed in next year’s legislative session.

Elections in Dallas typically take place in May and do not attract many voters.

But in November, voters have three proposals before them — S, T and U — that could dramatically change how city government works and how elected officials wield power.

The proposals, called the Dallas Hero proposals, would require the city to hire about 900 more officers and spend at least half of its annual revenue growth on the police and fire pension systems and other public safety initiatives. tie the city manager’s bonuses and job status to the results of an annual community survey of at least 1,400 residents on quality of life issues; and remove the city’s immunity from lawsuits alleging officials’ failure to comply with the city charter, state laws or city ordinances.

Related:Advocates for and against Dallas Hero’s charter proposals clash ahead of early vote

Critics, including four dozen former and current Dallas elected officials, say the proposals would undermine the authority of the City Council and city manager and impact the city’s spending to improve public safety.

Dallas Hero’s proposals are among 18 proposals to change the city charter, which also include pay raises for council members and a ban on arrests for less than 4 ounces of marijuana. Propositions S, T and U are the only proposals with an announced, organized opposition effort.

Pete Marocco, executive director of Dallas Hero, said the three proposals in question are necessary to improve public safety and create more accountability from elected officials.

Dallas hotel mogul and Republican donor Monty Bennett is helping finance the controversial trio of proposals and has provided office space for them. It is not known how much he gave.

Although the Dallas government is nonpartisan, the proposals are divided along party lines. The Dallas County Republican Party has passed a resolution in support, while the county Democratic Party opposes the measures.

The conclusion: Voter referendums are often unclear, but proposals put before Dallas voters could change the way parts of city government operate, which has led the city’s political leadership, past and present, to oppose the measures.