North Carolina is a state in the game

As we enter the final weeks of the 2024 campaign, here’s where things stand: North Carolina is a state in play.

In the latest Carolina Journal poll, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by a negligible six-tenths of a percentage point. No surprise. Our presidential elections have been hotly contested for nearly two decades, with Trump winning North Carolina by one point in 2020 and just over three points in 2016, Mitt Romney winning by two points in 2012, and Barack Obama winning by a nose in 2008 in front had a paltry three tenths of a point.

Also as usual, North Carolinians will elect a Democrat as governor. The CJ poll and most other polls have Josh Stein ahead of Mark Robinson by double digits, although it’s possible that enough GOP voters will come home, albeit reluctantly, to reduce Stein’s margin of victory to the high single digits.

The other 13 statewide races — nine other state assembly positions, three appeals court seats, a Supreme Court matchup — are almost all three-point races or less.

Democrats have small advantages for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and state superintendent of public instruction. Republicans lead the races for agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, insurance commissioner, state treasurer and, narrowly, state auditor. According to the CJ poll, Republican Jefferson Griffin is ahead of Democrat Allison Riggs by 1.4 points for the Supreme Court.

With 11% of voters still undecided in the voting rounds, there is no basis for confident predictions. Both parties could claim a narrow victory by Election Day. Or they could split about half.

Although Democrats have no realistic chance of capturing one or both chambers of the General Assembly, they currently have a slight advantage on the general election question for the Legislature. It’s a realistic possibility of winning the handful of seats needed to end Republican supermajorities and thus strengthen Governor Stein’s position – but only that.

An intriguing feature of the CJ poll is a segmentation model of the 2024 electorate consisting of the Democratic base (41%), the Republican base (41%) and the remainder, referred to as “undecideds.”

The size of this third group may seem strange to you given what you have read so far. However, remember that mixed feelings about certain issues or races does not mean that one is undecided on all issues. Only about 19% of this group, representing 4% of likely voters in North Carolina, have no stated preference for president. But a whopping 42% of them aren’t sure who they’ll vote for governor — and a whopping 60% or more are still undecided about the Supreme Court and other voting rounds.

What does this universe of soft partisans and swing voters look like? Well, 57% are women and 62% are non-Hispanic white. Half are registered as unaffiliated, while Democrats and Republicans each make up a quarter. Most live in rural areas and describe their political ideology as moderate, with conservatives making up 37% and liberals just 8%. About 30% said their household income was $100,000 or more, compared to 36% of Republicans and 36% of Democrats (which is an interesting finding in itself).

Most of these people have only voted in one or two of the last four presidential elections. In 2020, most voters chose Trump.

In short, voters who are still making up their minds about at least some of North Carolina’s 2024 elections are, overall, leaning toward the right of center. That pretty much sums up our state’s election results over the last 16 years: modestly right of center.

Republicans generally win state races and most statewide races, although often by narrow margins. Democrats generally win offices such as governor and attorney general. In most counties, Republicans win most local offices, but Democrats are strong in highly populated urban offices. This pattern gives the Republican Party an advantage in legislative races that district maps emphasize but do not create. Yet their supermajorities are fragile.

These factors explain why North Carolina is a state in play now and for the foreseeable future.

John Hood is a board member of the John Locke Foundation. His most recent books, Mountain Folk and Forest Folk, combine epic fantasy with early American history.