What’s next for the Mets after the magical run ends? Exiting the playoffs should only be the start of the competitive window

The 2024 New York Mets were the ultimate “It’s over/we’re back” baseball team. They started 0-5, went on a 12-3 run, then lost 27 of their next 39 games and had the best record in baseball (65-38) from June 3 through the end of the season. The Mets needed a game-winning home run in the ninth inning to beat the Braves in Game 161 just to get into the postseason, and then they needed another one to beat the Brewers in Game 3 of the Wild Card Series. Every time you thought you were out, the Mets pulled you back in.

After all of these ups and downs, New York’s season came to an end on Sunday night with a loss to the Dodgers in Game 6 of the National League Championship Series. The magic was finally exhausted. The Dodgers will face the Yankees in the World Series and the Mets will return home after a successful season, albeit with an unsatisfactory ending.

To be fair, though, 2024 should be just the start of a prolonged period of contention for the Mets, who have nearly unmatched financial resources, a sparkling front office led by POBO David Stearns, and a major league talent base to boot MVP candidate Francisco belongs to Lindor and young sluggers Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos, among others. At the same time, there is a lot to do this off-season. Perhaps more than is normally necessary for a team that has an 89-win season and an NLCS berth.

Here are three questions Stearns, the Mets and owner Steve Cohen must face this offseason.

1. What happens to Alonso?

Hard-hitting first baseman Pete Alonso has been the Mets’ most popular player for much of the last six years and certainly one of their most productive. His 219 home runs since the start of 2019 are the second-most in baseball behind Aaron Judge’s 232, and a typical Alonso season in 2025 would move him ahead of Darryl Strawberry and make him the franchise’s home run leader. Since Day 1, Alonso has been a great Met, both on the field and with his work in the community.

With Alonso turning 30 in December, he is expected to become a free agent this offseason, and the fact is that his production has declined over the past two years. His 34 home runs this season were his fewest in a 162-game season, and he had a .324 on-base percentage in over 1,300 plate appearances over the past two years. The history of righty-hitting/righty-throwing first basemen in their 30s is terrible. In all likelihood, the Mets are already past the best years of Alonso’s career.

Objectively speaking, the right way is to say thank you for the last six years and let another team pay the ultimate price for Alonso’s demise. Just take the win, you know? The Mets could then move Vientos over first base, which is likely his long-term position anyway, and continue the trend toward younger and more athletic players with a new third baseman, or keep Vientos at third base and find a new first baseman. However, Alonso is very popular and still productive, and letting him go wouldn’t go down well with much of the fan base. That’s what it’s like when a star gets free agency.

Nothing in this sport happens in a vacuum. Re-signing Alonso would change the way Stearns & Co. build the roster, as first base (and DH to some extent) will be occupied, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. It’s justifiable to keep the popular player that you know can be successful in your market. At the same time, letting Alonso leave as a free agent would open other doors, including perhaps…

2. How aggressively are they pursuing Soto?

I suspect the answer is very aggressive since they will be there until the finish line. My guess – I emphasize, this is just a guess – is that Juan Soto will eventually return to the Yankees, although my confidence in that is 55/45 and not, say, 90/10. Cohen and the Mets can match any free agent contract offer if they choose. So it all comes down to trading Soto to the organization, and the Yankees had a 10-month head start with direct access. Plus, the Yankees are in the World Series. That probably won’t hurt their chances of retaining Soto.

The point is, Soto is a generational talent and only turns 26 later this month. He’s a megastar in his prime and exactly the type of player the Mets and every big market team should be pursuing. Soto’s prime fits well with what’s left of Lindor’s prime, and he’s a magnetic personality whose value goes beyond what he does on the field. If you sign him, he will sell tickets, he will sell merchandise, he will go to the Hall of Fame in your team’s uniform and in doing so carry on the legacy of the franchise. The question isn’t whether the Mets will pursue Soto aggressively. Of course they will. The question is whether they can convince him to drive across town.

3. How can they fill the rotation?

The Mets have had so much success this season thanks in part to a rotation in which three starters – Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino – each made at least 31 starts and posted no worse than a 3.91 ERA. Adding David Peterson, these four pitchers combined to start 115 of the team’s 162 games, posting a 3.56 ERA and an average of 5.7 innings per start. On most nights this year, the Mets put a quality starter on the mound. That’s a pretty good foundation for a contending team.

Now comes the hard part. Manaea, Quintana and Severino are all free agents — Manaea is certain to forego his $13.5 million salary for 2025 and hit the market — and Stearns and his staff will have plenty of innings to fill over the winter. Here is New York’s rotation depth chart, which only takes into account players under contract or team control in 2025:

1. RHP Kodai Senga (missed almost all of 2024 due to injury)
2. LHP David Peterson
3. RHP Tylor Megill
4. RHP Paul Blackburn (missing end of 2024 due to spinal fluid leak)
5. RHP Christian Scott (will miss 2025 due to Tommy John surgery)
6. RHP José Buttó (had his greatest success as a reserve player in 2024)

The Mets could move Buttó back into the rotation — there’s something to be said for learning how to make outs in the bullpen and transitioning back into the starting role — but he’s been a trusty, high-leverage reliever for most of the year. Senga and Blackburn are a mystery given their injuries. Prospects like Dominic Hamel, Brandon Sproat, Blade Tidwell and Mike Vasil could come into play, although none have performed particularly well in Triple-A this year, and ideally these will be midseason call-ups rather than opener prospects -squad.

During his years with the Brewers, Stearns has been very good at finding hidden gems and quality pitchers, and he will be expected to do the same this offseason. He also has a much larger payroll, so expect him to take some major swings. Almost every team needs to upgrade their rotation over the winter. That’s just baseball. The Mets are no different, except that their top three starters, based on innings pitched, are about to hit free agency. Starting pitching will be a major focus this offseason.