Leaked US information shakes Israel’s plan to attack Iran and more

Middle East Spectator is a pro-government Telegram network based in Tehran, as are all Tehran-based media channels by law. Last week, Middle East Spectator leaked two sensitive intelligence documents. The documents came from the US National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) and the information concerned Israel’s preparation to retaliate against Iranian missile attacks.

I have not republished the documents leaked on Telegram. Interested readers can click on the link provided above.

Middle East Spectator claims it is an independent operation in Tehran. It said it obtained the documents from an “informed U.S. intelligence source.” If we take this at face value, an intelligence source contacted the Spectator and shared the two documents. For further clarification, Spectator says in a later post that the source is within the US Department of Defense.

Because “news” and information are very tightly controlled in Iran, the Spectator could only publish these documents with the regime’s permission.

This is extremely valuable material that Iran can and probably will use to prepare its defense.

One of the two leaked documents is classified as top secret. The heading of this document is “NOFORN,” which means that the document may not be shared with foreign governments. Assuming that the documents were not shared with allies (such as the Five Eyes group, whose members have exceptional access to US intelligence information), this information supports the Spectator’s claim that the leak came from US persons or entities came from.

The documents describe an Israeli “large-scale operational exercise” on October 15 and 16. The document was published by the Spectator on Telegraph on the 18th^Th.

Whoever passed it to Tehran warned that an Israeli attack was imminent. It also told the Iranians what types of weapons would be used and what their likely targets would be, the latter mainly being Iranian air defense sites and long-range radars.

How do we know this? The two documents provide highly detailed information about the Israeli Air Force’s preparations for an attack and detail activities at three Israeli air bases that are subject to massive US surveillance.

The report carefully identifies the types of cruise missiles Israel was preparing, namely a system called ROCKS (which could potentially be Israel’s Crystal Maze or Crystal Maze II long-range cruise missile) and Golden Dawn, a different type of cruise missile could be derived from the Sparrow series, which originated as a targeting system that mimicked Iranian long-range missiles.

The report also stated that the platform carrying these missiles would be the F-15I and not the Israeli F-35 “Adir” jets. It also points to the refueling tankers and surveillance platforms that Israel would use.

There’s more. The less secret (classified) document is about Israel’s Jericho II intermediate-range ballistic missiles, which are believed to be a crucial part of Israel’s nuclear deterrent.

Jericho II runs on solid fuel and can be silo-based or Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) based. The documentary context shows that the US accepts Israel’s possession of nuclear weapons, although the US has never officially recognized this.

The relevant document indicates that Israel may have scattered the Jericho missiles to prevent them from being attacked by Iran. It also says that the US has not detected any preparations by Israel for its Jericho II missiles and concludes that an Israeli nuclear strike is unlikely.

There is no doubt that the sharing of geospatial information has caused significant harm to Israel. It is also likely that far more sensitive intelligence information was leaked to the Iranians, information that Iran may be protecting from disclosure to the public. Some publications on the Spectator channel admit this.

Why would the Iranian government release ANY of this information (either through Spectator or with Spectator’s permission)?

Some speculate that it was to convince Israel that Iran was aware of the retaliation plan – and thus deter Israel from an attack that the Iranian government REALLY didn’t want to face. Second, perhaps it served to warn (bragging?) that Iran was being supplied with classified information by the United States, which would alarm Israel about what else had been compromised.

Consider this.

The Iranian leak was published on October 18th. On the 19th^ThOn Thursday, a drone believed to be from Hezbollah attacked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home in Caesarea, near the coast. Accurately targeting Netanyahu’s home required “scene matching” since any drone from Lebanon, Syria or Iraq would likely have been outside radio control communications. Scene matching would require significant intelligence preparation.

Was there confidence that Netanyahu would be home during the attack? Or the confidence that he wouldn’t be? Attacking the house knowing he wasn’t there would be another way to tell Israel what Iran knows without facing the retaliation that would surely follow an actual assassination. Were US assets complicit? In other words, was the leak a violation of the law or was it an act by the government or some members of the administration with political motives? Nobody can say that yet.

All of this is likely to lead to a significant reassessment in Israel. At the very least, Israelis will believe that U.S. intelligence is unreliable and pervasive. Furthermore, some will understand that the US is openly hostile and acting against Israel. (After the drone strike, the prime minister received calls from foreign heads of state as well as former President Trump and U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson. Neither President Biden nor Vice President Harris called.)

In the real world, this is a very sad development. Israel has some of the best human intelligence (HUMINT) in the world and has significant access to Iran’s nuclear programs. Israel has warned friendly (and not so friendly) countries on many occasions about threats, including against foreign leaders, discovered by Mossad and other intelligence centers in Israel. Leaks like these significantly impact intelligence cooperation and directly harm the United States.

According to House Speaker Mike Johnson, the US has apparently opened an investigation. Documents of this type are often sent to security-cleared personnel over the secure Internet. Hundreds, perhaps even more, could have access. It might be possible to check the timestamps of who accessed or copied the documents, which would potentially help narrow the search. It may also be possible to track documents sent outside the United States using the extensive capabilities of the National Security Agency. A lot depends on whether the investigation carried out is serious.

One suggestion circulating is that the documents may have been hacked. However, such sensitive information is not only distributed through secret channels; It is also encrypted, making hacking attacks less likely to produce useful results. For the avoidance of doubt, there are no public reports of hacking of U.S. security information.

It is not clear what Israel will do. It would be reckless to retaliate after at least some of Israel’s plans and preparations were leaked – and that was the whole idea. Israel had reportedly already agreed with the US not to carry out attacks on Iranian oil or nuclear facilities. Will this agreement apply now, or will Israel consider the agreement void?

Furthermore, Israel fears that its other operations – against Iranian proxies from the Red Sea to Gaza, Lebanon and Syria – are also at risk due to US intelligence leaks.

Stephen Bryen was Staff Director of the Middle East Subcommittee of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy.

This article was originally published on his Substack, Weapons and Strategy. It is republished with permission.