Fantasy Football Pulse Check: Was Amari Cooper the key to the Bills’ passing game?

The NFL blessed us with two blockbuster trades this week – Davante Adams and Amari Cooper. The Adams trade seemed a long time coming – and that was at the aggressive urging of Aaron Rodgers. However, the Cooper trade filled a much-needed void for the Buffalo Bills. Instead of a trade to continue stockpiling offensive talent, the Bills had a clear hole in a struggling receiving corps, and this was a move that could reshape the Bills’ offense going forward.

The Bills entered 2024 with mixed expectations for their new-look receiving corps. With the loss of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, the Bills increased their free agency and signed Keon Coleman. Although there were slight glimmers of hope, it has been a difficult ride so far.

Cooper’s addition not only gives the Bills a much-needed offensive boost, but also provides the advantage and opportunity he’s been missing all season with Deshaun Watson. Cooper’s 2024 had been a disaster, save for a boom game in Week 3 in which he finished as the overall WR4 with two touchdowns. His next best finish was WR44, where he only had eight fantasy points.

Even though Cooper was a boom-bust wide receiver by nature, this level of production fell well short of expectations and was largely out of his control. A connection to Josh Allen would mean an immediate increase in his usage.

Entering Week 7, every Bills pass catcher averaged less than 10 fantasy points per game in half PPR. Khalil Shakir led the way with an average of 9.5 fantasy points per game. The target share remained unchanged in the receiving corps: Shakir received 21 targets in five games (one less than any other pass catcher), Coleman 20, Mack Hollins 19 and Curtis Samuel 17. Many predicted that a lack of reliability in the receiving corps would give Dalton Kincaid the Gain a goal advantage – and so far this has been the case for the TE with 31 goals this season. Despite leading the team visually, Kincaid averaged just under seven fantasy points per game, good for TE10.

Josh Allen earned a total of two QB1 finishes in Weeks 1 and 3, albeit against Arizona and Jacksonville, two of the league’s worst defenses. In all other weeks he was QB28 twice and QB19 once. The offense struggled overall as the running game was inconsistent and lacked opportunities.

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Cooper’s effort was limited, but the Bills looked like a renewed team and defeated the Titans 34-10. Bills receivers have all shot up dramatically in fantasy production. The entire group looked cohesive and this was a solid step in the right direction, especially against a Tennessee defense that had improved in the offseason and was strong against opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers.

Pulse Check #1: Is Week 7 production real and what can we expect from Bills receivers moving forward?

Week 7’s numbers didn’t represent a dramatic increase for Allen, but there was a noticeable difference in his performance and that of the entire receiving corps. Allen recorded the highest number of pass attempts all year. He had never scored more than 30 attempts in a game and his previous passing high was 263.

In Week 7, he completed 21 of 33 passes for 323 yards and two touchdowns.

Due to the increased production, the targets were a little more focused this week – great for our fantasy purposes. Cooper, Coleman, Shakir and Kincaid all saw five or more targets, with the running backs receiving minimal action.

According to PFF, the Bills played 55 offensive snaps. Cooper played 19 snaps, ran 12 routes and received five targets. He led all Bills pass catchers with 14.6 fantasy points, slightly edging out Coleman, who had 14.5. Cooper was limited in his first game, which was to be expected, but his target rate per route run was higher than usual – a level we shouldn’t expect in the future – and showed the Bills had intent with his use.

Coleman played 41 snaps, equal to his previous total, but scored the most this season with seven, catching four for 125 yards. His day could have been even bigger as a close touchdown was negated. Coleman had the best game of his young career and it will be interesting to see his fit with Cooper and his average attacking depth going forward. This was a great sign that Cooper’s presence could open up more opportunities for other receivers and Coleman could be the biggest beneficiary.

Oddly enough, despite Cooper’s addition, Hollins still played a significant number of snaps with 41 and ran 23 routes but only saw one target. For the sake of fantasy, we can consider Hollins a non-factor.

Shakir returned to regular action after being sidelined in Week 5 and limited in Week 6. He had a productive day, catching all seven of his targets for 65 yards and continuing to be a reliable intermediate target for Allen.

It should be noted that Curtis Samuel left the game with an injury. Despite being second in the receiving corps in touches, Samuel was by far the least productive receiver in terms of fantasy points per touch, averaging just 1.45 fantasy points per touch in PPR. For comparison, Coleman was at 3.68 and Shakir was at 2.72 at the start of Week 7. Samuel’s return could change things a bit, but he averaged less than three goals per game and the Bills’ best path forward may not involve significant use from Samuel.

Pulse Check #2: Does Kincaid actually have TE1 plus?

Kincaid’s usage was more intriguing. He played 40 snaps and ran 25 routes compared to Dawson Knox with 31 snaps and 15 routes. Kincaid saw six targets while Knox had three. Kincaid continues to be one of the team’s top tight ends and should maintain his current level of performance, but Cooper’s addition eliminates any chance of Kincaid becoming a consistent top-five tight end. Knox will continue to siphon off just enough targets to limit Kincaid’s upside to the lower TE1 range.

Pulse Check #3: What can we take away from the running backs with a slight increase in pass volume?

I’m a little concerned about the running backs’ usage in Week 7. It’s hard to say that the backs’ receiving volume will suffer based on one game, as it may be an anomaly. There were only three targets for the running backs, one for Ray Davis and Ty Johnson and none for James Cook. The lack of receiving upsides would limit the ceiling a bit, but both defenders scored a rushing touchdown, the bright spot in the offense’s increased performance.

Volume might decline a bit, but increasing the odds in the red will help counteract this. However, fantasy managers should be somewhat concerned about Davis and his impact on Cook’s production. Cook served as the lead back with 12 carries for 32 yards, but Davis was very efficient with 41 yards on just five carries.

Cooper’s arrival shouldn’t hurt the running game, but the possibility of increased committee work is a potential problem.