Decoding a Leak – Tehran Times

TEHRAN – On Friday, a Telegram channel published what it said were “top secret” US intelligence documents prepared by the US Geospatial Intelligence Agency. The leaked documents refuted Washington’s assessment of the Israeli Air Force’s alleged preparations for an attack on Iran.

According to the documents, the US has been watching as Israel prepares for what appears to be a major military operation against Iran. The documents show that since October 8, Washington has observed Israel moving a significant number of modern missiles to the Hatzerim air base south of the occupied territories. On October 15 and 16, the regime moved additional weapons to the Ramot David and Ramon air bases. The Israeli Air Force also conducted a large-scale training exercise on October 15, involving several aircraft, including tankers and Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS), which are essentially flying radar stations.

The Middle East Spectator Telegram channel said it obtained the documents from an anonymous source on the same messaging app. The source refused to identify himself and claimed to work in the US Department of Defense, the news aggregator said. “We are independent journalists and are not tied to any government agency or organization. We exercise our full and inalienable right to freedom of the press.”

The Telegram channel’s report quickly became a global firestorm. Within hours, the story spread to the front pages of major Western and Israeli news outlets, fueled by intelligence community concern. CNN and Axios were the first to light the fire, with Axios quoting US intelligence officials as saying they were “extremely concerned” about the alleged leak. “A U.S. official told Axios that the alleged leak was extremely concerning,” the outlet reported, echoing the sentiments of a senior Israeli official who confirmed the leak and its “serious” impact on the regime.

The first US official to finally address the matter was US House Speaker Mike Johnson, who announced that the American government was conducting an investigation. “There are some serious allegations being made,” the Republican told CNN on Sunday. “The investigation is ongoing and I will be informed about it in a few hours.”

Johnson did not comment on the authenticity of the leaks, but The New York Times reported that officials privately acknowledged that the documents were authentic.

What do the leaks suggest?

Despite the seriousness of the leaked secret documents, many experts believe their content is unlikely to change the course of any possible Israeli action against Iran. Since Iran launched a barrage of about 200 ballistic missiles at Israeli military and intelligence bases in the occupied territories 20 days ago, senior regime officials have sharpened their rhetoric, saying they would make Iran pay a “painful” price.

While the Iranian attack only targeted military sites, Israeli politicians have spoken openly about a range of possible attacks, from attacks on military bases to crippling oil production to attacks on nuclear facilities. This is the second time Iran has directly challenged Israel from its own soil, following a similar but less violent attack in April. Now, as Hezbollah worsens the regime’s woes by attacking a Golani Brigade camp and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s residence, the pressure is on for Israel’s next move. This decision carries enormous weight: Any potential strike against Iran could either strengthen the regime’s position or, as Iranian officials have warned, accelerate Israel’s perceived decline, a trend that has become increasingly evident over the past year.

While the leaked intelligence documents about Israel’s response may not change the course of events, they do raise questions about the source of the leak.

If the source of the leak is indeed a person within the Defense Department, as the Telegram channel claims, it could be a sign of a deep rift within the American government. This could indicate that a significant group of military and security analysts reject the current policies of policymakers. Echoing concerns expressed by many experts, these individuals may be deeply concerned that Washington may be sleepwalking toward disaster if Israel fails to contain its actions in West Asia.

However, if a government agency is behind the leak, the implications become even more complex. Washington could try to prevent a full-blown conflict by alerting Iran to a possible Israeli attack. Alternatively, Israel could deliberately spread misinformation to confuse Iran. Or perhaps Tehran is intentionally leaking information with the aim of demonstrating its superior intelligence capabilities and deterring Israeli aggression.