No bans for the College Football Playoff in the SEC? Parity leads to unexpected teams in the conference race

The SEC entered the 2024 season with several heavyweights ready to compete for the College Football Playoff. In fact, five of the top seven teams in preseason national title odds were from the SEC. Nine weeks into the season, chaos reigned throughout the race.

For the first time since 2007, there are no undefeated teams in the SEC in November. To make matters even crazier, the only teams still undefeated in conference play – No. 14 Texas A&M and No. 8 LSU – have lost non-conference games to Notre Dame and USC, respectively. Next week, the Aggies and Tigers meet in College Station for control of the SEC title race. Who could have seen this coming?

But basically it’s that kind of year. Heading into the season, no one in the SEC should feel comfortable with their positioning in the College Football Playoff.

If #5 Texas Had UT won against Georgia on Saturday, UT would have almost secured a spot in the CFP. Instead, the Longhorns’ record of wins over teams just under .500 won’t get much credit. The return of the rivalry game against Texas A&M suddenly becomes a must-see.

#2 Georgia He gave himself some breathing room after beating Texas, but games against Ole Miss and Tennessee remain on the table. If the Bulldogs lose three In the final games of this season, even Saturday’s win at Texas might not be enough, especially given mediocre performances against Kentucky and Mississippi State.

After that, it’s terribly difficult to find even a single clean CFP case. LSU still has games remaining against Texas A&M and Alabama. No. 7 Tennessee is the other team in the top 12 of the AP Top 25 rankings, but a daunting road trip to Georgia brings with it a potential complication. At one point, Texas A&M appeared to have the cleanest schedule, but the emergence of LSU and a big matchup against Texas at Kyle Field require a minimum split to reach 10 wins.

Of course, this does not include number 15 Alabamawhich has put together one of the most confusing seasons in the country. Beating Georgia and decimating Wisconsin on the road gives the Crimson Tide some breathing room. Losing on the road to Vanderbilt and Tennessee doesn’t make sense, especially with Missouri, LSU and a hateful Iron Bowl against Auburn on the horizon.

So let’s quickly run through some scenarios. Texas and Georgia are probably in good shape. The winner of Texas A&M-LSU could also be on his way. Tennessee did a lot with its win over Alabama, but it simply needs to play better against Oklahoma, Arkansas and Florida than wins by 10 points or less. No. 21 Missouri needs to go on the road and beat Alabama to have a chance. Ole Miss needs to do something similar against Georgia.

Most likely the SEC will get four teams in the CFP. At this point, none of the four are locks. And if the first three weeks of conference play are any indication, there could be many more losses we don’t expect.

Another factor that only complicates matters is the sudden emergence of two serious contenders from both the ACC and the Big 12. There are still three undefeated teams in those two conferences (No. 6 Miami, No. 11 BYU, No. 10 Iowa State) and a one-loss team that looks as good as any this side of Georgia (No. 9 Clemson). This makes the level of parity between second-tier SEC teams far more complicated. All four ACC and Big 12 schools are ranked in the top 11. Indiana is right there, giving the Big Ten a truly unexpected fourth team alongside Oregon, Penn State and Ohio State.

Granted, this is the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff and the debut of the expanded Big Ten and SEC. There’s no telling how the CFP committee will respond to the SEC’s schedules, all of which are expected to be among the best in the sport. How does a 10-2 SEC team compare to a 12-1 Big 12 team? Can a 9-3 SEC team compete with an ACC overall? We won’t have a clue until the first rankings are released on (deep sigh) Election Day.

Seven teams with a record of 2-1 or better are entering the home stretch in the SEC. Don’t be surprised if the race for the CFP among SEC teams ends in complete chaos given numerous complications.