What the Mets must do to beat the Dodgers: Comeback keys

The New York Mets’ mission is simple to state and incredibly complex to execute: beat the Los Angeles Dodgers twice.

They did that back in April when they won the first two games of a series in Los Angeles (in games started by Sean Manaea and José Buttó). If they do it now, they will play in the World Series for the first time since 2015 and complete the first comeback from a 3-1 deficit in franchise history.

“We can beat them,” Edwin Díaz said after Friday’s Game 5 win. “We can beat them.”

Okay, how?

Here are the three keys to New York picking up wins over the next two nights and securing a pennant.

Manaea must be successful in the attack zone

Let’s talk about Manaea through a stat called “Percentage of Hits and Whiffs Called.” From this title you should conclude that the statistic measures the percentage of throws that are called either strikes or whiffs. (The hint is swings-and-misses, just in case.)

In 2024, a league average pitcher received a called strike or whiff on 28.5 percent of his pitches; First of all, this number was slightly lower at 28.1 percent.

In the first five games of the NLCS, the Mets starters received a so-called strike or whiff on only 23.8 percent of pitches. They can’t advance or finish off the Dodgers in the strike zone, which is why they ran around the world.

The only exception to this trend so far was Manaea’s start in Game 2 in Los Angeles, where he had 16 called strikes and 11 swings-and-misses in 87 pitches, or 31 percent of the time. This probably makes sense to you because you remember how he dominated Shohei Ohtani in the strike zone in that game.

Manaea can win in the strike zone because his sinker plays with his new arm angle. Since making that adjustment in late July, Manaea has gotten more called strikes/whiffs with his fastball than anyone else in baseball. (In percentage terms, however, he trails two teammates — David Peterson and Tylor Megill.) Jose Quintana can’t win with his fastball in the strike zone against a team like the Dodgers; Manaea can and did in Game 2.

It’s obvious that the Mets need a solid start from Manaea to win Game 6; They are not equipped to win a bullpen battle with Los Angeles’ rested relief corps. But the Mets likely need a great start from Manaea – better and deeper than in Game 2 – to best prepare for victory in Game 6 and Game 7. And to do that, Manaea needs to get forward and hitters finish efficiently in the zone.

Can another arm step up in the bullpen?

Why do the Mets likely need a better, deeper performance from Manaea in Game 6? Now, how do you feel about the bullpen right now that isn’t named Ryne Stanek or Edwin Díaz?

And here’s the hard truth: These two could work in both Game 6 and Game 7, but they probably won’t be effective when needed in both games. The Mets’ best chance of getting the same productivity out of this pair is probably to stay away from Stanek entirely in Game 6 and limit Díaz to six outs in the two games.

Which leaves a huge gap for someone else to step in. The Mets had hoped it would be Reed Garrett, but he was fatigued in his last two appearances, in each of which the No. 9 hitter hit a big home run. Phil Maton had been Díaz’s primary starter toward the end of the regular season, but appeared exhausted after pitching four times in five days in Milwaukee and Atlanta. Tylor Megill and Buttó were each hit hard in this series.

This could be the biggest question facing Carlos Mendoza over the next two nights. If he takes out his starter and can’t get to one of the two trusty arms in his enclosure, which option does he think is the least bad?

The Dodgers bullpen is not bulletproof

On the face of it, the Dodgers, who play a bullpen game on Sunday, could swing the matchup in the Mets’ favor, considering New York plans to use Manaea, its best pitcher. But it depends. If Los Angeles takes the lead early and starts using its debt-laden weapons, it will be a challenge. To advance, the Mets will need to be able to hit the Dodgers’ top relievers.

The Dodgers have managed to protect their top pitchers from contact with the Mets’ best hitters.

Los Angeles’ powerful backup players, Michael Kopech, Blake Treinen, Evan Phillips and Daniel Hudson, were all used sparingly, meaning the Mets usually only spent a full season at the top of the rankings.

Of this group, only Treinen has played against Francisco Lindor twice. None of the Mets’ other top five batters – for this exercise, that’s Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Mark Vientos and Starling Marte – have faced one of these top four relievers more than once in the Series.

Plus, Lindor hasn’t even seen Phillips yet. Alonso and Marte didn’t see Kopech or Hudson.

“They have high-quality weapons and that is part of their job,” Mendoza said Saturday. “That makes them a strong team because if you look at it, they have five, six players that they can use at any point in the game and in high-impact situations. It’s a challenge, but we’ll make a plan. We have good hitters.”

That’s not to say that they can’t meet her just because they haven’t seen her often or at all. It’s just that it doesn’t usually make things any easier. In contrast, in the ALCS, the top relievers in that series faced the same batters multiple times and allowed runs in big spots.

(Photo by Sean Manaea: Harry How/Getty Images)