Evaluating three players’ trend lines after preseason

ORLANDO – The Orlando Magic’s preseason is in the rearview mirror and next up is the regular season.

After three inconclusive games, the results begin to count on Wednesday when the Miami Heat host the Magic.

Now is a good time to look at which players made the most of the preseason and what that progress could mean for the year ahead.

Every now and then, talented young players manage to overcome the timeline and become stars. That was the case with third-year Magic forward Paolo Banchero, who is finding new ways to slow the game down after back-to-back seasons in which he was named Rookie of the Year and an All-Star.

Many common themes connect top draft picks. Among other things, the story shows that things really get going in the third season.

Anthony Edwards, the first overall pick in 2020, was a first-time All-Star in his third season. Scottie Barnes, the 2022 Rookie of the Year, made his first All-Star appearance in 2024. Ja Morant made an All-NBA snap in his third year. Orlando doesn’t even have to look outside its own building to see the progression. Jalen Suggs’ 2023-24 season was by far his best in – you guessed it – his third year.

If Banchero’s preseason is any indication, his best is yet to come.

On 135 possessions in three games, Banchero averaged 14.0 points on 61.5 percent shooting from the field and added five rebounds and four assists per. Often criticized for his efficiency or lack thereof, Banchero posted an eFG percentage of 65.4% and a strike rate of 68.1, as well as a net rating of +10.3 (difference between Off. and Def. rating when a positive rating is desired) and a player impact estimate of 20.7. This measures a player’s overall contribution to the game.

Banchero often ran to the edge and was successful. He rarely forced anything, but instead did, to put it in his own words, what great players do: whatever the game is called by them.

“I think he just has a certain poise about him,” Magic coach Jamahl Mosley said after his team’s final preseason game Friday night, in which Banchero scored 21 points on 8 of 13 shooting from the field. “He’s just now realizing how great he can become.”

How far Orlando’s group goes this year is a collective effort. But with Banchero looking sharper than ever in his career, the Magic are ranked high.

Current stock: The trend is increasing.

When assessing which bench players had the best preseason, the answer falls on one of the two second-year guards: Anthony Black or Jett Howard.

Ask Howard and he will tell you all about his 2023 draft classmate.

“[Black’]The entire training camp was great, everyone praises him. “It’s well deserved, I’ll tell you that,” Howard said Friday evening. “Just vocally, commanding the offense, getting everyone in the right spots and getting the right reads almost 95 percent of the time.”

“Pretty much every shot I get in preseason was from him or.” [Banchero].”

Black played 20 minutes per game off the bench in three games, averaging 9.3 points and 4.3 assists. He shot 56.3% from the field and made three of his six three-pointers. His 65.6 eFG% and 70.1 shooting percentage were 11 and 14 percentage points higher, respectively, than his regular-season totals last year. And with a usage rate of 20 percent, Black accounted for 43.4% of the team’s assists.

There were still frequent substitutions, a telltale sign that the second-year guard is still coming to terms with the increased number of players. But with no true second-unit starter returning to the roster from last year, this month was crucial in Black taking advantage of his opportunity.

“They give me a chance to play and make mistakes, just run like that.” [second unit]Black said. “They trust me, talk to me and help me through everything.”

“I definitely feel a lot more comfortable doing what I can, so it was definitely a good camp.”

Current stock: The trend is increasing.

The fourth-year forward from Michigan has been a polarizing figure for two reasons: his new contract and his outside shooting.

Wagner, who received a five-year contract extension worth $224 million this summer, is one of the cornerstones of the franchise. A player’s rookie upgrade is at least as much about what he can be in the future as it is about what he already is.

Wagner, another 6-10 ball-handling forward who is a highly capable defender and scorer at multiple levels, is a player any team would want. If Wagner had shot a similar percentage from deep in his third year as he did in his first and second years (28.1% in the 2023-24 season, 36.1% and 35.4% in the previous two years), the perception would be different to him in the league. His 19.7 points per game would almost certainly have translated into 20 or more a night, and there would be less commentary on whether or not he deserved the contract.

However, getting too caught up in “would” and “could” won’t give you the fairest idea of ​​where a player is at any given moment. While Wagner found other ways to influence the game with his defense and playmaking, he struggled with his own scoring in the three preseason games.

Wagner shot 29.6 percent from the field and missed all seven of his three-point attempts. He didn’t score from beyond the rim (except on free throws).

This summer, his focus was “a lot on my shot,” he said at media day, and he worked on getting the mechanics right. But he also credited him with refining his mindset, keeping a clear head and how to achieve what he needs in a way that best aligns with the team’s intentions.

“Sometimes it’s easy to look at the stats and say, ‘Oh, he didn’t shoot well,’ but sometimes there’s something more to the story or another point where you need to improve on that, and that’s what I’m trying to do “that you have to concentrate on,” said Wagner. “At the end of the day, once the game starts, there is no need to think too much. You just have to play and trust what you did in the summer.”

While attention may be focused on the low percentages, it is important to remember that preseason has limited meaning. All findings should be viewed with caution – both positive and negative. More importantly, Wagner still has the confidence to shoot because Orlando is the better team when he takes and executes his shots.

For example, here are the overall numbers for how Wagner shot in the preseason compared to the regular season:

Looking back, we may see this as a time of growing pain as he adjusted his shot, or a harbinger of further trouble. He’s down right now, but it’s not yet ethical to make such a big prediction for the upcoming 82-game marathon.

Current stock: Downtrend.

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