Analysis: State of play with the Sonics returning at the start of the NBA season

Tim Booth / The Seattle Times (TNS)

SEATTLE — When the NBA opens next week, it will likely be the start of a season in which there is finally clarity about the league’s expansion plans and, ultimately, how Seattle fits into it.

Perhaps.

NBA commissioner Adam Silver has hinted for several years that expansion is on the horizon. At one point, it seemed as if the league would quickly turn to expansion talk shortly after the league signed its new media rights deals last summer.

And the NBA could still do it. But Silver and the league appear to be stepping on the brakes slightly. After an NBA Board of Governors meeting last month, Silver said an expansion was not discussed and that it would likely be addressed at some point this season.

This is both good and frustrating news for fans who have been stuck idle for 16 years since the SuperSonics’ departure, waiting for the league to return. It’s also further offense to critics who are still bitter about what happened and continue to say goodbye to the NBA.

Kraken principal owner Samantha Holloway spoke briefly last week during a charity fundraiser benefiting the Sonics Legends Fund and appeared to follow Silver’s lead, dampening the anticipation a bit so soon.

Holloway and many of the same people who brought the Kraken to the surface are expected to be involved in any expansion offer from Seattle. Retired former NBA executive Rick Welts, a Seattle native, consulted with this group in preparing a possible expansion bid.

But there is no election campaign yet. As with the NHL expansion process with the Kraken, this group will not escape from Silver and the league’s owners.

With that in mind, here’s a rundown of the expansion talks and some of the issues facing the league as the 2024-25 season begins:

So tell me, where are things?

Remember the scene in Braveheart where William Wallace seemingly screams “Stop” a dozen times in his Scottish accent before unleashing his fury?

That’s a pretty good comparison to the current state of expansion talks. If the league can manage to address some of the factors that are still in play, it feels like it’s on the verge of a breakthrough. Most notable is an impending franchise sale and litigation related to recent media rights deals. Until these questions are resolved, the NBA will be cautious in its approach – hence Silver’s cautious comments last month.

But if the NBA opens the door to the expansion process, be on your guard. It could move pretty quickly.

If? What the hell is that “if” you mention?

The NBA is healthy and thriving, and expansion means the money is split between 32 instead of 30. There are owners in the league who don’t want to spend a cent more than they should be getting.

In other words: THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THAT THE LEAGUE WILL EXPAND!

However (excuse the capital letters), even though there are some stubborn ownership groups that may be a little cautious on the expansion front, there is a chance to add the 13th largest media market in the United States with 41 years of NBA history to a passionate fan base with one Having some disposable income is a great incentive. New teams could also trigger additional revenue streams for the league.

There are only four markets in the top 25 of the most recent Nielsen rankings that do not have an NBA team: Tampa and St. Petersburg, Florida (No. 12), Seattle (No. 13), Raleigh and Durham, North Carolina (No . 22) and St. Louis (No. 24).

OK, OK, we get the “ifs.” But should the league decide to move forward, how will it all work?

If the league gives the green light to explore an expansion, it should be similar to the Kraken. The league would review offers and likely form a committee within the Board of Governors that would review those proposals and make recommendations. The NBA hasn’t gone through expansion since Charlotte in 2004, so it’s been a while since this process was undertaken.

Nobody knows how fast the timeline is. It could be convenient for the All-Star Game to be in San Francisco next February. But such a quick timeline likely depends on the resolution of a property for sale 3,000 miles away.

What is this sale and how does it affect all of this?

That would be the ongoing sale of the Boston Celtics, and it has implications for a lot of what will happen with further expansion and has a strong connection to Seattle.

First, David Bonderman owns a share of the Celtics, although it is unclear what percentage he owns. As a reminder, Bonderman is Holloway’s father. The money Bonderman and his family will receive from the sale of the Celtics could – theoretically – be used in some capacity for an expansion fee.

Speaking of the expansion fee, that appears to be the bigger impact on the Celtics sale – figuratively and literally. When the league expands and the owners split the dollars 32 instead of 30, they want every penny they can get in expansion fees. The final number to sell the Celtics will likely be a market comparison to help determine that number.

But it will certainly be billions.

Did you say billions?

Yes. The last NBA franchise sale involved the Dallas Mavericks, when Mark Cuban sold a majority stake in the team about a year ago at a valuation of $3.5 billion. Matt Ishiba completed his purchase of the WNBA’s Phoenix Suns and Mercury in early 2023 in a deal valued at $4 billion.

The Celtics were valued at $5.12 billion by Sportico at the end of last year. The final sale price could be $6 billion.

Whatever the final number, funding entry into the NBA through expansion will require deep pockets. The $650 million the Kraken is paying as an expansion fee seems like pennies in comparison.

You mentioned a lawsuit? Lawsuits and NBA in the same sentence are a little triggering here in Seattle.

Understood. I’m sorry.

The lawsuit in question was filed against the NBA last summer by Warner Bros. Discovery after the league approved its new media rights deal. WBD claimed the league breached its contract by rejecting WBD’s corresponding offer after the NBA agreed to a deal with Amazon reportedly worth $19.8 billion over 11 years.

The NBA filed a motion to dismiss with the New York Supreme Court in late August. New York Supreme Court Justice Joel Cohen rejected a request to sign the agreements earlier this month, but no action has been taken so far.

Assuming the lawsuit is eventually resolved, having an NBA team in the city of headquarters for your newest media rights partner makes a lot of sense.

Where will the 32nd team be?

Vegas, baby…maybe.

The NBA loves Las Vegas, from hosting the NBA Summer League there to the first NBA Cup championship game — the league’s regular-season tournament — played there last season.

Add to that the fact that a certain current Los Angeles Lakers star has said he wants to be a team owner and own said team in Las Vegas, and it seems like a given that there will be the Las Vegas LeBrons at some point.

But… (there’s always a but)… the arena situation there is unclear. Doesn’t that sound familiar?

Oak View Group, the same people behind Climate Pledge Arena, planned a large resort and arena complex south of the Las Vegas Strip, but that project has stalled. OVG told the Las Vegas Review-Journal last month: “We are committed to building a world-class NBA-ready arena in Las Vegas and will release more information shortly.”

OVG is reportedly looking at land surrounding the Rio Hotel and Casino as a possible option for an arena.

OVG are not the only players in this Vegas table game. ESPN reported last month that former Milwaukee Bucks owner Marc Lasry may make an offer.

Also unknown is whether potential suitors will want to work with the owners and operators of T-Mobile Arena — home of the Golden Knights — and take the entire arena issue out of the equation. That would likely involve revenue sharing, which could deter some owners and investors.

When there is clarity on the Las Vegas arena situation in the coming months, their space should be identified as another expansion option. But the longer the uncertainty continues, the more the doors could remain open for places like Mexico City, Montreal, Louisville, Kentucky, Kansas City, Missouri, or even a possible return to Vancouver, British Columbia.

If the NBA opens up to expansion this season and Seattle applies and is awarded a team, when would it start?

The most optimistic assumption is that a franchise would take about 18 months to become operational. If a team were announced sometime this winter, that would be plenty of time for the 2026-27 season.

Most observers believe 2027-28 is the more likely timeline at this point.

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