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NOAA’s winter outlook predicts warmer than normal temperatures for the United States. What about SC?

NOAA’s winter outlook predicts warmer than normal temperatures for the United States. What about SC?

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Last winter, the United States experienced the warmest winter on record. Meteorologists are now predicting mild temperatures again in large parts of the country.

If you live in the Upstate and woke up to frost and cold on Thursday morning, you may be wondering how this is possible. This is partly due to the La Niña weather phenomenon, which will be weaker in the winter.

“During a strong La Niña, we typically see a dominant storm track over the northwestern United States and western Canada. We will have a weaker La Niña for most of this winter,” AccuWeather’s Paul Pastelok said. “The storm track could change as this winter season progresses. The storm could move further south into California, which is what we expect to happen this year. This may cause mild Pacific air to flow over the central and eastern U.S. at times.” However, a weak La Nina signal may push into the Midwest and Northeast.

La Niña isn’t the only factor contributing to mild winter conditions. Another polar vortex is a mass of cold air that is tightly bound to the polar regions by strong counterclockwise winds. If this winter matches previous seasons, the polar vortex could push freezing air across the eastern United States in February.

Gulf of Mexico water temperatures are also expected to be above historical average, resulting in mild air masses across the central and eastern U.S

Here’s what you should know about this year’s winter weather outlook.

What is La Nina?

During a La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than average in the south and cooler than average in the north. According to NOAA, the weather phenomenon involves warm water rushing into Asia and upwelling increasing off the west coast of America, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. The cold water in the Pacific then drives the jet stream, which can lead to droughts in the southern United States. It will also bring heavy rains and flooding to the Pacific Northwest and Canada, increasing the likelihood of an extremely active hurricane season.

Which parts of the country will be warmest this winter?

Heat demand is expected to fall below historical averages in about 75% of the country this winter. There are several areas where this will be the case, particularly in the South, ranging from the central southern Plains states through the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. These areas are expected to be the warmest this season. A noticeable reduction in electricity bills can be an advantage for residents of these regions.

According to AccuWeather, “…long range experts say temperatures could be more than 3 degrees above historical averages throughout the season across much of the Gulf Coast and south-central region, including Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta and Nashville.”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) winter outlook also matches AccuWeather’s, predicting warmer-than-average temperatures across the southern portion of the U.S., including the Great Lakes, the East Coast, New England and northern Alaska. Above-average weather conditions are also forecast for the entire northern portion of the continental United States

Will there be snow in SC this winter?

Southern residents hoping for snowfall this season could still get their chance. According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast, the chance of precipitation and snowfall this winter will be above average for areas in Region 4 (Georgia and the Carolinas). While it may not snow on Christmas Day in time to open presents, there is still a chance it will snow in late January and late February. The Almanac states that this could even impact the travel options of those who want to watch the 2025 Super Bowl in New Orleans in early February.

When is the first day of winter?

This year, the first day of winter in the Northern Hemisphere is Saturday, December 21st at 4:21 a.m. EST, according to the almanac. The winter solstice, the day of the year with the fewest hours of sunshine, marks the first day of winter. Summer lovers shouldn’t be too unsettled by the change – it may be the start of winter, but there are even better days ahead. After the winter solstice, the days continue to grow longer until the summer solstice, the first day of summer and the longest day of the year.

When does spring begin?

Meteorological winter lasts from December 1st to the end of February. Astronomical winter ends on Thursday, March 20, 2025 – the day of the vernal equinox.

Nina Tran covers trending topics for The Greenville News. Reach her by email at [email protected].