Sixth to last first frost part of warmest fall on record in Jamestown – Jamestown Sun

JAMESTOWN — Freezing temperatures Oct. 15 in Jamestown were the sixth-to-last first frost of the fall recorded at the North Dakota State Hospital, according to North Dakota State Climatologist Daryl Ritchison.

The last first freeze of the season was Oct. 27, 1963, Ritchison said. The late frost this year resulted in a warm and mild winter, with no consistent snow depths reported at any time and temperatures averaged up to 7 degrees above normal during the winter months.

Reports from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration indicate that the winter of 1963 to 1964 was an El Niño, with more than 2 inches less precipitation than normal reported in the southern two-thirds of North Dakota.

The El Niño weather pattern is often associated with warmer and drier winter weather in the Northern Plains.

Ocean currents are changing this fall, according to Meghan Jones, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service’s climate division in Bismarck.

“It’s a La Niña clock,” she said. “We haven’t transitioned to La Niña yet.”

The La Niña weather pattern is associated with more normal or possibly more severe winter weather across the northern Plains.

“The warm fall is what we would expect,” Jones said. “It can be expected to last through October and much of November.”

The current weather conditions are expected to continue for the foreseeable future, said Zach Hargrove, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Bismarck.

“So far, the first half of fall is the warmest on record,” he said.

Autumn or fall is defined by meteorologists as the months of September, October and November. Current record statistics range from September 1st to October 15th. During this time it was not only warm, but also dry, Hargrove said.

“Jamestown received 0.62 inches of rainfall during this period,” he said. “This is the ninth driest on record.”

Hargrove said “intermittent cold fronts” were possible, bringing slightly lower temperatures and the possibility of precipitation. Cold fronts are not expected to dominate the weather.

“There is no sign of colder weather in the next few weeks,” he said.

Jones expects the transition to winter weather could lead to a longer winter.

“The transition to below-average winter temperatures could continue into the spring,” she said. “It’s hard to say how far below normal temperatures will be.”

Winter is defined by meteorologists as December, January and February, and spring as March, April and May.

“Precipitation is harder to predict,” Jones said. “My best estimate is slightly above normal (precipitation), particularly in the second half of winter through spring.”

The monitoring map released Oct. 17 by the National Drought Mitigation Center shows normal moisture conditions in almost all parts of Stutsman County. Abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions are occurring across much of southern and western North Dakota.

The Climate Prediction Center forecasts below-average temperatures and an equal chance of above- or below-average precipitation for all of North Dakota for the months of December, January and February.

Looking further into the future, the Climate Prediction Center predicts below-average temperatures for western North Dakota in March, April and May, while the rest of North Dakota is predicted to have an equal chance of above- or below-average temperatures and precipitation during the spring months.