2024-25 NBA Finals Predictions: Championship Futures by Jonathan Von Tobel

The NBA season is a long and arduous journey. Of course, injuries can derail a season, and teams don’t find their feet until the end of the year. These ups and downs lead to opportunities in the futures market. Dallas is the perfect example.

At the beginning of February, the Mavericks won the NBA finals with 26:23 and 18:1. They finished the season with a 24-9 SU and ATS run in their final 33 games. Dallas was +700 entering the postseason and was in the NBA Finals. In the end, the team lost, but a bettor with the 18-1 ticket in his pocket was able to make money as the finale began.

This type of run is generally why I prefer to wait until the season begins before adding championship or conference futures to my portfolio. The market reacts to injuries and losing streaks. It also responds slowly to new data. For example, I added Minnesota to win the Western Conference at 30-1 at the end of October last year.

However, that doesn’t mean there’s no point in adding championship futures before the season starts. Teams – like Boston – can certainly play a tie for a season without seeing a playable drop in their ratings. It is also beneficial for a bettor to buy into a team that they believe is undervalued before the season begins. If they’re right, the value of this ticket will only increase as the season progresses.

As with every season in the NBA Guide, here are my three favorite championship futures to add before the season begins.

Minnesota Timberwolves (12-1)

Karl-Anthony Towns is now with the Knicks, but the Timberwolves are no worse today than they were with him. Naz Reid is a perfect replacement for Towns and the numbers prove it. With Towns at power forward alongside Rudy Gobert, Minnesota outscored its opponents by 9.2 points per 100 possessions. His net rating with Reid at that spot was +8.4. And Reid is just as effective from distance as Towns.

The additions of Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo give the Timberwolves much-needed depth. Randle can play the four, with Reid the five, giving this team unique lineup versatility. Oh, and they still have the best two-way player in the league in Anthony Edwards and one of the best fullbacks in Jaden McDaniels.

The Northwest Division is also a joke in the end and the Nuggets could take a step back this season. The signs are once again pointing to a strong season for Minnesota.

Milwaukee Bucks (14-1)

Last season didn’t go well for the pair of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. However, this price is not the price that bettors received at the time of trading. At the start of the season last year, Milwaukee was just +400 short of winning the Finals. It wasn’t until the first round that the score was 14-1 when Antetokounmpo dropped out due to injury. Now we get that prize with the Bucks before the season begins.

There were some positives to Milwaukee’s hectic season last season. With Lillard and Antetokounmpo on the court, the Bucks outscored their opponents by 10.2 points per 100 possessions and ranked in the 96th percentile in offensive efficiency (124.1). The team also showed some improvements on defense after the All-Star break.

There are once again some injury concerns. Khris Middleton isn’t healthy to start camp, and Gary Trent Jr., an extra — and expected starting shooting guard — suffered an elbow injury in the first preseason game. But overall, this team should be better in the second season of this experiment, and we’re buying cheap.

Phoenix Suns (30-1)

Phoenix was included in this article last season, but the Suns disappointed. However, after watching this team’s offseason, I’m willing to get hurt again.

It cannot be overstated how much better Phoenix will be with Mike Budenholzer as head coach. It appears the Suns will be using the 3-point line more than they did last season. This is proven by their first preseason game, in which they attempted 39 3-point shots. Phoenix ranked 25th in 3-point attempts per game last season (32.6), despite ranking fifth in accuracy (38.2%). This team is already great on offense, but could be even better with a more analytical approach.

The Suns did a great job in the offseason adding as much as they could. The big prize went to Tyus Jones, who will take the point for Phoenix. Jones has been in the 89th percentile or higher in assist-to-usage rate over his last three seasons. He ranks in the 84th percentile or better in overall assist rate. He fills a huge hole for the Suns. The backup center is also significantly stronger with the addition of Mason Plumlee. Phoenix should be a dominant team in the regular season under Bud, and that number should decline as the season progresses.