What’s wrong with baseball’s best finisher? Why the Guardians’ Emmanuel Clase struggled in the 2024 playoffs

On Friday, the New York Yankees achieved the improbable feat of scoring multiple runs against Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase for the second straight game. While New York’s efforts in Game 3 were in vain and the Guardians showed their own late-game heroics, the Yankees walked away with the win in Game 4. Accordingly, the Yankees are just one win away from the pennant and a trip to the World Series.

Clase, meanwhile, continued to fall into one of the most surprising slumps of the playoffs. He was impregnable during the regular season, giving up five earned runs in 74 1/3 innings. Friday’s collapse means Clase has now scored eight earned runs in seven October frames, with four of those runs coming within 24 hours.

What exactly is the best ending to baseball interception? After taking a closer look at his month after Friday, here are a few developments that might explain his October funk.

1. Cutter mutation

As part of our reporting last night, we discovered that Clase is dependent on his cutter. He used it 77.8% of the time during the regular season; that usage rate, including Friday, is now 75.7% for the postseason. While Clase’s reliance on the cutter hasn’t changed, it’s worth noting that the pitch’s movement profile has changed.

In fact, Clase’s average cutter during the ALCS has nearly two inches more horizontal break than his average cutter during the regular season. Here’s a look at his monthly horizontal break data to illustrate the point:

April	159	4.2
May	151	3.7
June	127	3.0
July	103	2.8
August	123	3.1
September	94	2.4
ALCS	28	5.1

Strange things can happen with a small sample size. The reason for this is that Clase’s favorite field cuts in more than any single month of the season, by almost a full inch. Is that intentional? Is it the extra adrenaline that comes with pitching in the playoffs? Or did Clase inadvertently alter his grip or release to contribute to greater horizontal movement? We don’t know the answer.

If this is an unintentional change, it stands to reason that Clase’s pitch control may not be as sharp as usual, cutting in more than he expects. What we can say with confidence is that this isn’t the only change affecting his editor in this series.

2. Changed location against right-handers

We pointed out again last night that Clase’s preferred location for his cutter against right-handed batters during the regular season was the inside half. Some pitchers use their knives like sliders, throwing them over the middle and letting them work to the outer third or beyond. Not Clase; He likes to throw it in and make it work again.

Clase intentionally or unintentionally changed that approach in this series. (Again, we feel obligated to point out that this is a very small sample size and that just a few more pitches would change these numbers greatly in either direction.) Including Friday night, about a third of his cutters were right-handed hitters away from the plate; his percentage in the regular season was 21.5%. This ties into the first subheading, which states that his cutter moved a little more than usual.

Additionally, Clase’s vertical position has also shifted relative to right-handers. Approximately 32.5% of his cutters landed in the middle of the vertical zone during the regular season; So far in the ALCS this percentage is up to 46.7%.

With these two micro-trends in mind, take a look at where the seven cutters Clase gave up in the postseason are:

All vertical in the middle of the zone and most of it away – the two spots where Clase tends to be more inclined against right-handers in this series than in the regular season.

However, there is another element that we must consider.

3. Bad luck

We can hear you booing from the other side of the screen, but this needs to be made clear. Clase had already suffered a few bad fractures this month. That continued Friday when Alex Verdugo hit a weak squibber that shortstop Brayan Rocchio couldn’t handle.

For proof, see how Clase’s ball tracking data fits together:

Regular season	86 miles per hour	2.4 degrees	27.1%
LDS	85.7 miles per hour	6.8 degrees	31.8%
LCS	84.8 miles per hour	8.5 degrees	29.2%

The only notable change between the regular season and the postseason has to do with Clase’s average launch angle: hitters find it easier to pick him up. This is not a trivial development and is likely due to the aforementioned fluctuation in its location. A few degrees here and there may not seem like much, but it can make a difference.

That means the league hit a total of .429 on batted balls that traveled 85 miles per hour (to split the difference) and had a launch angle between 0 and 5 degrees during the regular season; In comparison, the league hit .444 on balls that had the same exit velocity but instead had a launch angle between 6 and 10 degrees. That’s a few extra hits on a large enough sample.

We don’t need to explain how big a few extra hits here and there can feel when it comes to a tighter presentation in October; You’ve seen for yourself over the last few nights that it can be the difference between the best in the business and a pitcher who inspires such deep dives.