The Hurricanes’ top line will thrive compared to the Penguins

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he takes down the best NHL player props there is on Friday night.

Andrei Svechnikov All-Time Goalscorer: +230 (Sports Interaction), over 0.5 points -161 (Sports Interaction)

The Hurricanes were a trendy pick in the NHL’s mainstream media to fall behind early in the season after losing a number of key players from the roster this summer. Oddsmakers are less certain that Carolina’s regular-season dominance will come to an end; They chose Rod Brind’Amour’s group with a betting total of 100.5 points.

I join the oddsmakers in believing that Carolina will safely get back into the playoffs, and one reason for that is my belief that we will see a more productive season from Svechnikov as he takes on a larger role.

Svechnikov only scored 19 goals and 52 points in 59 games during the 2023-24 season, but his skill set suggests there is still plenty of room for growth.

Svechnikov has looked excellent in the Hurricanes’ first two meetings at even strength alongside Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis. In 21.3 minutes combined, this trio posted 6.77 xG/60, which is the highest mark in the NHL among units that last a sample of 20 minutes or longer.

Svechnikov has 16 shots on goal this season and is not someone who misses a below average number of chances (11.7% career goalscorer).

The Penguins’ rush defense once again looked suspect in the early going, and their in-zone coverage didn’t look particularly good either. These two deficiencies contributed to her goalscoring average of 4.20. The analytics are eye-testing as Pittsburgh has allowed 3.78 xGA/60, which is the seventh-worst mark in the NHL this season.

Part of the Penguins’ ugly goals against average can be attributed to the terrible play of Tristan Jarry, who will likely serve as Friday’s backup for Joel Blomqvist, who has looked surprisingly good with a .913 save percentage in three appearances this season.

Svechnikov is a player to buy in the fantasy and betting markets heading into this season, and the Penguins offer him an above-average matchup to be productive.

Gabriel Vilardi over 0.5 points -143 (sports interaction)

Mark Scheifele had a dominant start to the season with six points in three games. Kyle Connor stayed true to form with two goals and three points. What’s surprising about these two numbers is that Gabriel Vilardi only has one point, despite playing equally well with the two, and is also part of the Jets’ best power play unit.

Vilardi scored 34 points in 41 games during the second half of the 2023-24 season and should produce a similar performance this year as he continues to claim a spot on the Jets’ top flight and best power play unit.

The Sharks appear to be on track to be the worst team in the league again after scoring just 47 points last season. They allowed 3.98 goals against per game in the 2023-24 season and have allowed a league-worst 4.31 xGF/60 through the first four games of this season.

Backing Vilardi at -150 or better to get a point seems like a good way to go along with the idea that we should see another productive night in the Jets’ top flight.

Mason McTavish over 0.5 points +120 (Sports Interaction)

Is it time to panic in Colorado? The Avalanche have yet to win in four games and have allowed 6.25 goals per game.

The Avs are playing without one of the league’s best defenders: Devon Toews, and his return will provide a huge boost to the back end. However, Evan Rawal of the Denver Gazette has confirmed that Toews will not be returning tonight.

Toews’ absence likely means Oliver Kylington will be at the helm again, which is a positive note for the Ducks’ talented young offensive core.

The Avalanche haven’t announced whether Justus Annunen or Alexandar Georgiev will start, but both have struggled mightily from the start, posting an overall save percentage of 0.776% this season.

Based on the oddsmakers’ expectations, I think the Ducks are quite high this season and believe they have the talent to finish in the top half of the league in offensive production.

The oddsmakers don’t give the Ducks much of a chance in this particular matchup, as they are strong underdogs at +200 and all of their top forwards are priced at one point for longer than 2-1.

Given his +120 price tag, McTavish is my favorite Ducks skater to support in this tantalizing matchup. McTavish, Trevor Zegras and Robby Fabbri have combined for 4.24 xG/60 in 32.6 minutes this season. This unit should get some favorable matchups given the Avalanche’s current lack of depth.

McTavish also plays with the Ducks’ best power play unit, which could prove productive in Friday’s game as the Avs’ penalty kill has a success rate of just 54.6%.