What the new floor and ceiling are for Michigan football in 2024

At the halfway point of the 2024 college football season, the Michigan Wolverines are 4-2. It was an uninspiring 4-2 but you are what your record says. As we shift our focus to the second half of the season, expectations need to be revised downwards.

Going into the season, I thought it was extremely unlikely that Michigan would become national champions again. I looked at the ceiling as a Big Ten championship with maybe a playoff win or two, but no national title. The floor was 8-4. However, I think it’s worth noting that my initial season prediction was 9-3, with the floor being much more likely than the ceiling.

Looking specifically at the first six games, the ceiling was obviously 6-0, while I looked at the floor at 5-1. The 2024 Michigan Wolverines fell through my expected playing field when they fell short against a weakened Washington team and nearly lost at home to USC.

The back half of the schedule will be incredibly difficult. It’s time to buckle up. What do you think about the new ceiling and floor?

The second half schedule includes four ranked opponents plus a rivalry game at Michigan State. The Wolverines will be heavy underdogs against both Oregon and Ohio State. A win in any of these games would be shocking, frankly.

Indiana and Illinois should be easy wins for Michigan before the season starts. Now they’re anything but that. Both are currently higher than Michigan in the AP poll, for what that’s worth. At best, both are inconsistencies, although it should be noted that Michigan has a slight advantage in Saturday’s contest against Illinois.

Michigan State should undergo a major rebuild. For the most part it is the Spartans. However, Jonathan Smith has them a little ahead of schedule in rebuilding. If they catch Michigan on a bad day, there’s certainly a chance they can knock off the Wolverines in Ann Arbor.

The only really easy win Michigan seems to have on the schedule is Northwestern. It’s a trap game, as Ohio State is the week before, but it’s also coming off a bye and the Wildcats haven’t had a great season so far.

By my count, that’s one win, one win, two toss-ups and two games in which Michigan will be the big underdog. For me that means the floor is 5-7 and the ceiling is 9-3. Even if Michigan can shock Oregon or Ohio State, I see no way they will beat both. I would say the most likely outcome of the season at this point is 7-5.

What do you think the new floor and ceiling are? Am I too pessimistic or too optimistic? Is there a chance Michigan gets a legitimate playoff spot? Conversely, is there a chance that Michigan misses out on bowl eligibility altogether?

Let us know what you think in the comments below.