NFL Team Performance Trends: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

In this article, I will break down NFL teams’ performances entering Week 7 based on Expected Points Added (EPA) per game on both offense and defense. Let’s get straight into things.

Offensive takeaways

With an EPA/game of 0.20, the Commanders still lead the league in offensive efficiency. Terry McLaurin has become the Ballers’ 11th WR. He has scored four touchdowns in the last four weeks and appears unstoppable with Daniels throwing him the ball. The running game was on fire, with Brian Robinson scoring 10 or more points every week this season.

After a strong performance against Dallas in Week 6, the Lions have moved up the offensive efficiency rankings. They posted an EPA/plays of 0.11 this season and were effective across all offensive options. Start your Detroit players!

The Bills bounced back after a two-week cold spell. Josh Allen looked spectacular against the Jets, and with the addition of a true WR1 in Amari Cooper, big things are now in store for this Buffalo team.

The Falcons are trending in the right direction, going from 0.04 EPA/game to 0.06. They face Seattle, which has been subpar on defense this season. So start your Atlanta options in Week 7.

The Chicago Bears continue to improve. Heading into their bye week, they have continued their trend of increasing their offensive EPA each week. Start your bears!

Minnesota has lost offensive efficiency over the course of the season and is now coming off a bye week that is eerily similar to the season at the start of 2016, when they started 5-0 and missed the playoffs. They play the red-hot Lions in Week 7. So keep an eye on their performance this week to gauge how they will fare in the future.

Defensive takeaways

The Vikings still lead the league in defensive efficiency at 0.17 EPA/game, but they still play the Lions next week, so going with them in fantasy might be a bad idea.

The Colts play the Dolphins in Week 7, who have an offensive EPA/plays of -0.18 this season. Although the Colts defense has been mediocre, expect strong fantasy numbers this week.

The Chargers, who boast a 0.15 EPA/Plays per game defensively, face the Cardinals in Week 7. This will be a great matchup, but could badly impact Arizona’s fantasy performance on offense.

The Patriots get the blessing of facing the worst performing defense in football, the Jaguars. While the Pats offense hasn’t been particularly strong this season, Drake Maye threw three touchdowns in his first start against the Texans and should showcase even more of his skills against a weaker opponent. If you’re looking for some flexibility or need a QB this week, this might be the only time you take a look at New England’s players.

The Commanders play the Panthers in Week 7, who have an EPA/plays on defense of -0.12 this year. This should be an exciting experience for Washington fantasy owners.

Player profiles

Finally, let’s take a look at some player profiles.

Josh Downs: Downs has been great since returning from injury, posting a 0.53 EPA/game average. However, he is blessed with pocket passer Joe Flacco backing up the injured Anthony Richardson. With Richardson set to play in Week 7, it might be time to bench Downs for a week to see if he can continue his production without a strong passing QB.

JuJu Smith-Schuster: JuJu looked great in his 2024 debut with the Chiefs, grabbing a TD and over 100 yards. The Ballers slotted him in at WR37 and told us he could be a strong flex option in the coming weeks.

Zack Moss: After a tough performance in Week 6, look for Chase Brown to take the lead in the Bengals’ backfield as Moss’ efficiency has declined significantly.

Najee Harris: Harris has put up mediocre numbers this season, and with Jaylen Warren returning to the backfield, his production is likely to decline going forward.

That’s all for this week. Be sure to check back next week for a preview of Week 8!