What does Sinwar’s death mean for Hamas, Gaza and Lebanon? – DW – October 18, 2024

In the words of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Wednesday’s assassination of Hamas political chief Yahya Sinwar means that “Hamas will no longer rule Gaza.”

In his view, Sinwar’s death, confirmed on Thursday, marks the beginning of the “day after Hamas.”

However, observers see a different future for the Iran-backed Hamas militia, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the US, the EU and numerous countries.

“The assassination of Sinwar is certainly a blow to Hamas given the important role he played within the organization,” Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa program at London-based think tank Chatham House, told the DW.

But Quilliam emphasizes that the policy of beheading has done little to undermine Hamas’s will and ability to fight Israel in the past, such as when the 62-year-old Sinwar was killed after the assassination of Hamas’s former political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, who took power. in Tehran in July.

“Hamas will recover by drawing on a new generation of leaders, redeveloping its military and technological capabilities, and reaching out to young Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank who have been brutalized by the conflict with Israel,” Quilliam said.

Peter Lintl, scientist at the Science and Politics Foundation (SWP), also shares this view. “Hamas is certainly weakened, but Sinwar’s death is not a death knell for the militia,” he told DW.

“missed opportunity”

Meanwhile, German, French and U.S. officials have expressed hope that Sinwar’s death could provide an opportunity for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Sinwar’s removal from the battlefield “represents an opportunity to find a path forward that brings the hostages home, ends the war and moves us to a day after,” U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Thursday.

But on Friday, just a day after confirming Sinwar’s death, Hamas pledged to hold the hostages in Gaza until the end of the war.

Some 42,000 people have been killed in the past 13 months of the war in Gaza, which was sparked by a deadly Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, according to Hamas-run health authorities.

And of the approximately 250 hostages brought to Gaza by Hamas fighters on October 7, around 100 are believed to still be in captivity.

Nevertheless, Mohammed al-Qawas of the Emirati think tank Emirates Policy Center (EPC) sees Sinwar’s death as a possible start of a “new chapter” in the war in Gaza.

“Once responsibility for ceasefire negotiations is transferred to Hamas leaders abroad, these negotiations will also be subject to external calculations, because all these leaders abroad are influenced by the capitals in which they are based, and perhaps this happens through these capitals, where Hamas is active.” “We can make concessions and introduce a new policy,” says DW.

Hamas’ political leadership is based in Qatar, but since Haniya’s assassination, Gaza-based hardliner Sinwar has been its point of contact for ceasefire negotiations with Israel led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt.

The SWP’s Lintl told DW that despite Sinwar’s death, he sees little reason to hope that Israel might be ready to end the war now.

Although he hailed Sinwar’s death on Thursday as the end of Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also made clear that the war would not end until remaining Hamas leaders – such as Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya Sinwar’s brother and his successor as Hamas military chief – eliminated and all those taken hostage still held by Hamas in Gaza were returned.

For James M. Dorsey, an expert on the region and senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and the Middle East Institute in Singapore, this approach represents a missed opportunity.

“Instead of using Israel’s tactical success to declare victory in Gaza, push for a ceasefire that could also end hostilities in Lebanon and negotiate a prisoner swap that would result in the release of the 101 remaining hostages held by Hamas “Netanyahu insisted that the war would continue until the Israeli military freed the prisoners,” he wrote in his latest post on his political blog, The Turbulent World.

Beyond Gaza – Hezbollah retaliates

Beyond Gaza, Israel has also escalated its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon after a year of limited skirmishes.

The Iran-backed group – which has been designated a full terrorist organization by the United States and Germany and whose armed wing is designated as such by the European Union – claims to support Hamas.

In September, Israel assassinated its leader Hassan Nasrallah.

Observers note that such killings have not helped to end hostilities.

As Sinwar’s death became known on Thursday, Hezbollah announced a “new and escalating phase” in its war with Israel, claiming it had used precision-guided missiles against Israel for the first time, “escalating from day to day.” Day.”

DW’s Mohamed Farhan contributed to this article.

Edited by: Jon Shelton