Sinwar’s assassination is unlikely to reverse the trend toward regional war

Israel has finally succeeded in assassinating Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader who was at the top of the Israel Defense Forces’ (IDF) target list and is believed to be the mastermind of the Hamas-led attack on Israel on October 7, 2023.

This is a new tactical military success for the Netanyahu government, which has accelerated its offensive against Hamas, Hezbollah and other Iran-aligned militias in recent months.

With the death of Sinwar – and before him Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated by Israel in Tehran last July – Hamas has few, if any, leaders left with sufficient authority and experience to lead the organization in both military resistance and… in the political administration of the Gaza Strip, which has been reduced to rubble in the year since Israel’s genocidal war began.

This assassination is undoubtedly a turning point, but how it will affect the course of Israel’s war, currently being waged on multiple fronts in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria, Iraq and soon Iran, remains to be seen uncertain.

For US President Joe Biden and other leaders of major powers, including France’s Emmanuel Macron, on the other hand, it is an opportunity for Netanyahu to declare victory and offer conditions for the surrender of Hamas and the release of the hostages, the Israeli prime minister said made it clear that Sinwar’s death would in no way end the war in Gaza.

Biden’s urgency in trying to end the genocidal war in Gaza is, of course, tied to his party’s hopes of winning the US election in November. The Gaza genocide has been a nuisance for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who faces right-wing attacks from Trump and Zionist circles that accuse her of trying to contain or limit the power of the state of Israel. But she is also under attack on the left from broad segments of the youth and Arab-Muslim community, which could cost her the state of Michigan and possibly the presidency.

Netanyahu’s bellicose persistence is also explained by his own political calculations. With his trained nose, he suspects that the successes he has achieved in the last month could mean his survival at the top of the government until the end of his term in office. And above all, he must wait at least until November 6, when it will be known who will occupy the White House for the next four years, assuming that the crisis of the 2020 elections is not repeated – as a tragedy or as a farce.

But the disappearance of Sinwar or Nasrallah from the scene – as has already been the case with other leaders eliminated by the State of Israel – will likely increase the trend towards a regional war, or more precisely, a direct confrontation between Iran and Israel and the United States don’t turn back. Not only has Israel temporarily shifted its center of gravity toward Lebanon, but the dynamics of the situation are also leading to increased U.S. involvement in the conflict, despite Joe Biden’s apparent desire to avoid involving American imperialism in a new war in the Middle East becomes. In just two days, the White House authorized the bombing of Houthi positions in Yemen and the deployment of their missile defense system in Israel, as well as the deployment of around 100 soldiers to operate it.

The region is now in a state of waiting as Israel considers its response to the 180 missiles fired by Iran earlier this month. The US government is trying to impose some restrictions on Netanyahu, for example by telling him that he cannot attack Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, which would have an almost immediate impact on the overall international situation. But Biden is not just a lame duck. The absolutely central nature of the strategic alliance with Israel and the very hegemonic decline of the United States limit his ability to persuade Netanyahu to be more cautious. Meanwhile, Netanyahu hopes that a possible Donald Trump presidency will further accommodate his colonial interests and facilitate his strategy to create a “Greater Israel” by annexing even more occupied territories and forcing the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza and the Western Bank.

But it is precisely this “final solution” that his far-right government of settlers and religious parties openly proclaims that is driving Palestinian resistance and international solidarity expressed on the campuses and streets of London, Paris and New York.

This article was originally published in Spanish on La Izquierda Diario on October 17, 2024.

Translated by James Dennis Hoff