Which back-to-back games should the Sixers’ Joel Embiid play and which should he miss?

With any frustrating, distressing, long-standing problem, acceptance is the first step to recovery. The Philadelphia 76ers’ frustrating, nagging and long-standing problem is that they haven’t been to the Conference Finals since 2001. The primary cause of this issue is the health of star center Joel Embiid in the late and key stages of the season.

But his text message to general manager Daryl Morey after the team’s first-round exit last season signaled a new willingness to change his approach. “We need to do whatever it takes to make sure I’m healthy for the postseason,” the former MVP’s text message to Morey read, as reported by ESPNis Tim Bontemps.

That is acceptance. The next steps to solving a problem are any intentional, solution-based behavior changes. An alcoholic stops going to places where alcohol is present, a troubled marriage goes to counseling, and a chronically injured basketball giant plays fewer games.

“We’re going to be very smart about how we manage him throughout the season,” Morey said at media day.

The 76ers plan to rest Embiid on certain nights to ensure the team is fully healthy in April, May and, if all goes well, June. The big man himself announced that he will not be playing games on consecutive nights this season and beyond.

“If I had to guess,” Embiid told ESPN, “I would probably never play back-to-back games for the rest of my career.”

The team has 15 consecutive games in the 2024-2025 season. That’s 15 games they have to play without Embiid. Thanks to the NBA’s rules for star players playing in the NBA Cup and nationally televised games, only eight decisions must be made, of which the team has seven in both legs in a row.

We’ll get those out of the way first (the NBA Cup or the nationally televised leg). printed in bold).

• November 12th vs. NYK (NBA CUP)
  November 13th vs. CLE
• December 3rd @ CHA (NBA CUP)
  December 4th against ORL
• January 1st @ SAC
  January 2 @ GSW (TNT)
• Jan. 14 vs. OKC
  January 15 vs. NYK (ESPN)
• January 28 against LAL (TNT)
  January 29 against SAC
• February 4th vs. DAL (TNT)
  February 5th vs. MIA
• March 16 @ DAL (ABC)
  March 17 @ HOU

If Embiid is healthy on these dates, he will participate in the games shown in bold. That leaves us with seven consecutive games in the 2024-2025 season for the team to decide which game Embiid will play.

December 20 against CHA
December 21st @ CLE
This is where the team’s Embiid rest philosophy becomes clear. Do you go all out against a weaker team and “guarantee” as much of an NBA win as possible by coming out on top against the Charlotte Hornets? The Hornets were like a twig under an elephant’s foot in the fight against Embiid. In his last five games against Charlotte, the center averaged 39 points on 67% shooting (all wins).

Or do you support a squad without Embiid (and possibly without PG) against Charlotte at home before traveling with Embiid and PG to face a stronger, more exciting matchup with a Cleveland squad? Last season’s series between the teams was close, tied at 2-2 with an average points margin of 3.75. (Embiid only played in the first game, a three-point win for Cleveland).

Maybe coach Nick Nurse wants to see Embiid play against the strong defensive frontcourt of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Cavs are a potential top-four seed and could easily be a playoff opponent in May. Do the Sixers want to collect data for this match? Does Joel want to challenge himself? Does Drummond want revenge on his former team (of 25 games)?

Hopefully the Sixers brass will ask at least two of these questions. But this entire thought exercise exists because the team wants to reduce wear and tear on Embiid. So I think Embiid plays against Charlotte and the team hopes that PG, Maxey and Co. can win in Cleveland.

January 18 @ IND
January 19 @ MIL
A Giannis-Brook Lopez frontcourt will be tiring with Embiid, while Indiana’s light-speed pace could lead to varying degrees of fatigue. Both games take place away from home and both teams are fighting for a place in the top six. The goal should be to end this road trip with a win. So I think the 76ers will rest both Embiid and PG for one of these games and play both in the other (that will happen at some point), but I can’t predict which team will face a full Sixers roster.

January 24 against CLE
January 25th @ CHI
The above physical reasons lead me to believe that Embiid will start against Cleveland and play against Chicago. That only changes if the Cavs are close to the Sixers in the standings. But even then, it might still be too early in the season for that to matter.

February 11th against TOR
February 12 @ BKN
Embiid and PG could fly to Cabo and start their All-Star break early. They are not needed in this back-to-back. Heck, even Maxey could go to the Chase Center a few days early and miss the Brooklyn game.

This new philosophy involves giving Embiid 11 straight days off in the middle of the season (assuming he doesn’t participate in All-Star Weekend).

March 3rd against POR
March 4th @ MIN
I’d say play Embiid in the Minnesota matchup since the Trailblazers will compete for Flagg, but the Sixers play two days later in Boston on TNT. I’m assuming they want a fully healthy roster for this, especially if it’s the best possible season scenario and the Sixers are near the top of the Eastern standings near Boston. We can hope.

March 9 @UTA
March 10 vs. ATL
In March, Utah will also be well into the Capture The Flag game among the league’s tankers, so Embiid doesn’t have to join in.

Atlanta doesn’t own their 2025 draft pick, so they will compete all season. If things go well, their lively young squad, led by a vicious Trae Young, could even be in contention for the sixth seed. They’re at least good enough to be in the play-in race and warrant an Embiid game.

March 23rd @ ATL
March 24 @ NOP
They may be players at the trade deadline, but the New Orleans Pelicans do not currently have a starter-caliber center. Your best Embiid matchup is either Daniel Theis or Dejounte Murray on the shoulders of Herb Jones.

Still, they should be a competitive team. When Embiid doesn’t play, he takes advantage of the Pelicans’ small-ball strengths, and unless it’s a dream scenario, wins this late in the season become increasingly important. If both the 76ers and the big man want him to get a lot of touches in a quiet but competitive matchup just before the playoffs, I would expect Embiid to play in New Orleans.

March 29 vs. MIA
March 30 against TOR
This game against Miami will be a good test in the final stretch of the regular season. It’s likely that the Heat will still be fighting for a good finish this time in the season. It would be a valuable experience to play against the genius Erik Spoelstra in a playoff-level environment just a week before the postseason.

As Jakob Poetl admitted at media day, Toronto will be playing for lottery balls all season long. With a TNT game against the Knicks coming a few days after this matchup, Embiid playing against Toronto would be a shock.

Since Embiid says he no longer wants individual accolades, we can assume he plays less than the 65-game minimum required for such accolades. That means he will miss more than one game in each of these consecutive games. As the season progresses, we will better understand the team’s philosophy regarding its rest.

Maybe we’ll even get a taste of it when the team opens its season by hosting the Milwaukee Bucks on October 24th. Coach Nurse recently told us The Philadelphia Inquirer Gina Mizell said the team is “right on track with the plan put in place.” The Sixers, like any other franchise, know that nothing really stays on track, but this plan should get them closer to solving their epochal problem.