3 free agent outfielders whose signings could help the Royals’ anemic offense

The Kansas City Royals surprised the baseball world by recovering from a 106-loss season in 2023 to win 86 games and a postseason wild-card series against the Orioles this season. While they lost to the Yankees in four games in the ALDS, it was a remarkable turnaround.

It’s even more astonishing when you consider how poor the offensive production from the outfield was. As a group, the Royals’ outfield produced a slash line of .219/.282/.366 with just 58 RBI and 225 RBI. The biggest culprits were left fielder MJ Melendez, center fielder Kyle Isbel and right fielder Hunter Renfroe. Should the latter decide to accept his player option for 2025, everything would be back in 2025 unless a trade occurs.

Only Isbel’s defense is good enough to cover his deficiencies on offense, and even he wasn’t as good last year compared to 2023. This year, his Defensive Runs Saved fell from 13 in 2023 to five in 2024. His Ultimate Zone Rating fell from 13 in 2023 to five in 2024 5.0 to -.5. Melndez had a DFS of -7 and -0.1 left, and Renfroe had a DFS of -4, although he was better in UZR at 1.3.

There are several outfielders who will be free agents and could provide a lot of help for an offense that doesn’t have much to offer other than Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez.

It’s a fair assumption that Juan Soto’s asking price will be well over the Royals’ budget and Cody Bellinger will either stay with the Cubs or be priced out of range for Kansas City. Here are some realistic goals for the Royals.

O’Neill doesn’t have much to offer in terms of batting average, but he has hit more than 30 homers twice in 2024 and 2021. Although he has some injuries and inconsistencies in the past, he is still at his best at 30 years old.

In 2024, he slashed .241/.336/.511/.847. He hit 31 home runs but managed just 61 hits in just 113 games. He can play both corner positions reasonably well, as can the Royals’ current options. The biggest warning sign is that his strikeout rate increases as his slugging percentage increases.

In the 2024 and 2021 seasons, in which he hit 30+ home runs, he had 159 and 168 strikeouts, respectively. There is a lot of swing and miss in his game. That might not work so well in cavernous Kauffman Stadium, where many of his fly balls could stay in the park.

In 2024, he earned $5.85 million. He is seeking a significant raise in his foray into free agency. While his mistakes could hurt his overall earning potential, it’s reasonable to expect a deal worth around three years and $60 million. That should flow into the royal budget.

Hernandez has an even greater hitting propensity than O’Neill, but is also more consistent. Over the past four seasons, he has hit .273/.327/.486/.813 and averaged 29 home runs and 96 RBI. He also averaged 175 strikeouts.

Defensively, he is much better in right field than left, although he could play either. This year he played left field twice as often as right field for the Dodgers, and his defensive stats matched Melendez’s.

Still the bat plays. He would extend a flat lineup with another dangerous batsman. According to Spotrac, he earned $15 million in 2024, with another $8.5 million in deferred payments over the next 10 years.

At 32 years old, Hernandez is probably at the end of his prime. Any team that signs him long-term could see diminishing returns. Considering he had a productive year in 2024, that will likely lead to him getting at least the same $23.5 million next year, but perhaps not more.

This is likely to put a strain on the Royals’ budget, especially if Henerandez seeks a multi-year deal. However, if the Royals are looking for a quick, short-term solution to their left field woes, Hernandez and his bat could be attractive.

Santander may be the best outfielder available not named Soto or Bellinger, and that alone could be enough to knock out the Royals. But if they want to compete with the big boys, they’ll have to sign a bigger, paid player at some point. Why not now, when Witt’s salary is still a bargain?

Santander turns 30 this week and has played at least 152 games in each of the last three seasons. In 2024, he slashed .235/.308/.506/.814 with 44 home runs and 102 RBI for the Orioles. He also strikes out quite a bit, but less than the other two players on this list.

Santander earned $11.7 million in his final year as Arbiter and will look to capitalize on his career year as a free agent. It could take up to five years and $130 million, perhaps even up to $135 million. That seems like a tall order, but if the Royals want to be taken seriously as a perennial contender, they may need to make such a commitment.

Santander is predominantly a right fielder, but Renfroe could likely move to left field if he decides to stay in Kansas City. Santander would be a big upgrade offensively and would give the Royals another piece to build on.

The Royals need to improve their outfield production. That could mean parting ways with the young players they have tried unsuccessfully to develop. This is never an easy decision, but the Royals will need to be more transactional than in the past if they want to build on the successes of 2024.