Japan general election: What would it take to topple the ruling LDP party? | Japan

With months of financial scandals, a cost-of-living crisis and unpopular leaders, some could be forgiven for anticipating the end of Japan’s troubled ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has been in power for most of the past seven decades.

The Oct. 27 election will take place a year earlier than many expected after former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida unexpectedly resigned following record-low approval ratings and public anger over his party’s apparent reliance on “monetary politics.”

His successor, Shigeru Ishiba, was chosen by party lawmakers and rank-and-file members last month to revive the LDP’s fortunes and extinguish the flames of a factional war in which Ishiba narrowly fended off a challenge from the party’s right.

But even at a time of political turmoil, polls suggest many expect the party to go into the 465-seat general election reasonably confident that it will be back in office for a fifth consecutive term.

Some polls even showed the LDP would retain its majority, helped by projected low turnout and a divided opposition. A Kyodo News Agency poll last weekend showed the LDP at 26.4%, well ahead of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party at 12.4%.

However, a new Nikkei poll suggests the party may fail to secure a majority – a result the business daily says would “potentially set the stage for political unrest not seen since 2009.” gave more” when the party last lost a majority in the House election.

The LDP aims to retain at least 233 seats to secure an absolute majority – a modest goal given the current total of 256 seats.

A prime minister under pressure

The party’s dominance of Japan’s postwar political landscape was not absolute. In 2009, voters ousted the LDP in a surprise result that saw the left-leaning Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) take office under Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama. This time, the traditionally fragmented opposition had achieved a level of unity that made the DPJ a serious electoral contender.

Analysts attributed the DPJ’s victory to the fallout from the 2008 global financial crisis, a widening income gap, a devastating scandal involving the loss of millions of pension records and the LDP’s deeply unpopular Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose approval ratings for the cabinet before the election had fallen to just over 16%.

However, the LDP’s time in the wilderness was short-lived. Hatoyama remained in office for less than a year because he was unable to fulfill his campaign promise to reduce the US military burden on the southern island of Okinawa. His two successors fared little better, and normal service resumed at the end of 2012 with the election of an LDP government under Shinzo Abe.

Tobias Harris, founder of consultancy Japan Foresight, said Ishiba could struggle to introduce legislation if the LDP and Komeito combined lose enough seats to weaken the coalition’s control of key parliamentary committees.

That would “not only fundamentally undermine his claim to be an electoral asset to the party … but also jeopardize any efforts to clean up, modernize and unify the party under his leadership,” Harris said.

Ishiba’s victory in the LDP leadership race raised hopes that a softer version of the LDP would emerge from the upheavals of recent months. He is widely seen as a moderate alternative to the ultra-conservative Sanae Takaichi, his main rival.

The 67-year-old, a soft-spoken former banker whose hobby is building model fighter planes and ships, had indicated that he supported same-sex marriage, reigning empresses and the right of married couples to have different surnames – social and cultural changes , which his party is going through, contrary to public opinion.

Ishiba had also vowed to take tougher action against LDP lawmakers who had plunged the party into crisis after it emerged that they had diverted unreported profits from the sale of party event tickets into secret illicit coffers. There are also concerns about his party’s ties to the scandal-hit Unification Church.

But in an apparent attempt to appease his right-wing opponents within the LDP, Ishiba has backtracked since becoming prime minister, telling parliament last week that the married surname law – in which women almost always take their husband’s name – and changing the ban on gay marriage “requires further consideration.” He declined to comment on any reforms to Japan’s male-only succession laws.

Critics also accused him of not keeping promises to deal with the financing scandal. The LDP has refused to support 12 candidates accused of serious crimes but will not oppose them in the election. Ishiba has said they might even be readmitted to the LDP if they win.

And although a record 314 women will be vying for seats – female MPs currently make up just over a tenth of all members of the House of Commons – the House of Commons is not expected to look dramatically different. About 10% of all candidates come from political families, including Ishiba, who “inherited” his father’s former seat in rural Tottori Prefecture in 1986.