According to the FedEx founder, the data predicts the rise of Tesla and Nvidia – and can reveal new trends

It wasn’t long before companies like early technology giants Burroughs, Sperry, UNIVAC and IBM hired him and his growing fleet to transport parts from the emerging Asian manufacturing market to the rest of the world. “What I actually saw was the beginning of the automation of society,” he said.

It was the first time his logistics company was at the forefront of technology trends that would change the world.

At Goldman’s annual Builders and Innovators Summit in Healdsburg, California, Smith explained how data from the logistics giant, which now moves about $2 trillion worth of goods per year across every industry and almost every country, charted the rise of Tesla and Nvidia predicted and are now watching into the future of geopolitical tensions and more.

“We just have this kaleidoscope of what’s going on in the economy,” he said. “And so we’re able to think that we’re identifying trends.”

Smith founded FedEx in Little Rock, Arkansas, in 1971 to solve business logistics problems. Smith says the company’s biggest technological breakthrough since those days when he personally ran delivery runs was software that made it possible to track moving goods.

“We got to the point where we were buying more PCs than any other company in the world,” Smith said. “And we posted them in our customers’ offices so shipping managers could track and prepare shipping labels.”

The company now operates more than 700 aircraft and more than 200,000 motorized vehicles and generated revenue of $87.7 billion in fiscal 2024 and $21.6 billion in the most recent quarter. But it is the data provided by this software that allows FedEx to track goods that provides the company with the trend detection data.

For example, Smith says the company is currently shipping Nvidia chips from Guadalajara on the West Coast of the United States and pallets from John Deere to Europe. Last year, FedEx added a Mexico-focused manager from Danone SA to its board and earlier this year expanded service between the U.S. and Europe, particularly to open up opportunities to China.

In fact, Smith highlighted China’s obstacles and opportunities as another example of a trend revealed by FedEx data. “What has happened more than anything else,” he said, “is that supply chains have regionalized on the principle of ‘China plus one.’” China Plus One is an increasingly popular business strategy that dictates that investors who are from If you want to benefit from China’s booming economy, you should also invest in another market.

For example, he says FedEx is seeing an increase in activity in Eastern Europe, particularly Hungary and Poland. There are 1,000 properties in southern Mexico that are either manufacturing facilities under construction or logistics and distribution centers with land reserves – many of which are owned by Chinese companies.

Such interconnectedness, blurring the boundaries between nations, complicated the whole idea of ​​imposing sanctions on one country or another. That’s why Smith is skeptical that tariffs on imports imposed by Biden and Trump before him will resolve geopolitical tensions. To support his skepticism, he cites research results from Financial Times In his opinion, this shows that tariffs slow down trade for everyone. Instead, he believes that proper recognition of the interconnectedness of global markets could lead to more measured solutions.

“Everyone sees China as a monolithic entity,” he said. “There is also a business class in China that does not want to be wiped out as China has become more protectionist. And if you walk into a FedEx hub today, you will be amazed at the choreography of things getting from every part of the world to every other part of the world.”