What will winter be like in Massachusetts? NOAA Announces New Forecast, Impact of La Niña

BOSTON — The National Weather Service released its 2024-2025 winter forecast Thursday on the coldest morning of the season so far in Massachusetts.

What is the winter forecast for La Niña?

Not surprisingly, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) based much of its forecast on something we call ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation). Last winter was all about the climate pattern known as El Niño. This year the opposite is the case. The National Weather Service predicts a 60% chance of La Niña this winter.

While El Niño is primarily characterized by above-average sea temperatures off South America, La Niña is characterized by cooler temperatures than normal water in the same region.

So given this forecast, we should expect a winter that is the opposite of last winter, right? Well, yes and no.

When we look at the “typical” patterns across the country, we see big differences between El Niño and La Niña.

The Pacific Northwest is typically warm during El Niño and cold and wet during La Niña.

The Ohio Valley is typically dry during El Niño but wet during La Niña.

The entire southern United States goes from cool and wet during El Niños to warm and dry during La Niñas.

La Nina impact

What about us here in the Northeast?

Well, the effects and differences are not that obvious or clear. Whether this occurs often depends on the strength of the El Niño or La Niña. Last year, a relatively strong El Niño led to a very strong increase warm, snow-free winter in Massachusetts.

This year we expect a weak La Niña. This likely won’t have a major impact on the Boston area, but instead will cause “other” large-scale atmospheric factors to play a larger role – like ocean temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic, the polar vortex, and anything else that may block it throughout Canada and Greenland develop. This makes it much more difficult to predict the winter forecast here in the Northeast.

NOAA’s forecast looks very similar to a typical La Niña. Expect milder than average temperatures in the south and east coast and colder than average temperatures in northwestern Canada down to the upper Midwest.

As far as precipitation is concerned, it looks quite typical for La Niña again. Dry in the south and wet in the Ohio Valley.

WBZ winter weather forecast

The WBZ-TV weather team will make our official winter forecast in November.

However, at this point, I see no significant reason or evidence to dispute the NOAA forecast.

We haven’t had a really cold winter here since 2014/2015 and snowfall amounts have been ridiculously low in recent years. Given the current state of our oceans and atmosphere, I think it will be extremely difficult to achieve a below average winter in terms of temperatures this season.

There will certainly be some cold spells and some snow, but the early odds point to another mild winter for Massachusetts and southern New England in 2024-2025.

Our team will continue to monitor all of the various, complex atmospheric factors that will play a role this coming winter. As things develop in the coming weeks, we’ll keep you updated on what to expect this winter!