What if Trump refuses to accept a loss? Could it lead to unrest?

Washington:

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has never followed the rules. Four years ago he complained about fraud and didn’t accept the results of the presidential election, and there’s a chance he’ll do the same this time after the Nov. 5 election.

This time, the only difference will be that Trump will not have the presidential levers of power that he had in the 2020 election. In addition, new laws have been passed in the USA that are intended to make it more difficult to influence election results.

THE REFUSAL

“If I lose – I’ll tell you what, it’s possible. Because they cheat. That’s the only way we’re going to lose, because they’re cheating,” Trump said at a rally in Michigan in September. Trump’s team filed over 60 lawsuits, but none of them succeeded in altering or delaying the vote count.

After losing the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump and his supporters launched an unprecedented attempt to overturn the results. This effort involved spreading unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud and voter fraud through the “big lie” propaganda technique.

CIVIL UNREST?

In 2021, Republican supporters attacked the US Capitol to stop Mike Pence from certifying Joe Biden’s victory.

Any attempt by Trump to suggest election fraud could potentially lead to civil unrest, as was the case on January 6, 2021.

According to Reuters, experts who monitor violent groups and militias, such as Peter Montgomery of People For the American Way, a liberal think tank, say they are less worried about a violent response from these groups than about threats against election workers. Violent demonstrations could also occur in the capitals of the contested states, said Montgomery.

Still, Trump and his allies have been crafting a plan for months to cry if he loses on November 5th.

After the Nov. 5 election, Republicans and Democrats are anticipating a potentially lengthy vote-counting process that could extend well beyond Election Day as mail-in ballots are processed and other votes are carefully verified and counted.

If it appears Trump is losing, the delay in the count will give him an opportunity to allege fraud while sowing doubt about election officials, even as he has threatened to put poll workers and public officials behind bars , he would have to win. For this to happen, the election must first take place.

BUILD ON KEY BATTLEFIELDS

Anticipating potential election controversies, Republicans have preemptively filed more than 100 lawsuits in key states. These lawsuits aim to provide a basis for post-election challenges, including allegations of widespread non-citizen voting, which have not yet been supported by evidence.

Both major parties are preparing to deploy thousands of trained volunteers, called election observers, to closely monitor voting and vote counting during the upcoming election. These volunteers are tasked with reporting any irregularities they discover. But some voting rights advocates are sounding the alarm because they fear Republican poll watchers could disrupt the process, even though the Republican Party noted that the volunteers were instructed to follow the law.

States must submit their election results by December before the Electoral College meets. Voters then cast their votes, which are then sent to Congress in January for formal verification. This represents the final step in confirming the results of the presidential election.

DELAYS AND MISSED APPOINTMENTS

Efforts to challenge election results fueled by Trump’s influence could lead to certification delays and missed deadlines. This could give Republican lawmakers grounds to challenge the result, with uncertain legal consequences due to potentially biased court rulings.

In response to Trump’s election challenges in 2020, Congress passed reforms to prevent similar disruptions. The new law clarifies the vice president’s limited role and prohibits him from delaying certification or throwing out state results, as Trump had demanded of Pence.

The measure also stipulates that no objection can be made to a state’s vote count unless a fifth of the members of each house of Congress agree. After that, a majority vote in each house is required for an objection to be found valid.

If the unexpected result were that so many votes were cast that none of the candidates achieved a majority, the newly elected US House of Representatives would elect the next president.