OPINION: The problem with politicians’ tax-free promises

Supporters of Herbert Hoover’s 1928 presidential campaign took out newspaper ads with the headline “A Chicken for Every Pot.”

It was an impractical campaign promise, although it had wings and may have helped: Hoover won the election. But then he ushered in the beginning of the Great Depression in 1929, when many could neither afford a chicken nor a pot.

Nearly 100 years later, political campaigns still promise voters a better life, even though the price has risen far beyond the cost of a chicken, a pot or even a whole new kitchen.

In rare cases, the country can afford such political bribery.

One such case is the South American country of Guyana, which has experienced oil wealth in record time equivalent to going from zero to 60 miles per hour. The country of 800,000 increased oil production from zero in 2019 to over 600,000 barrels per day in the fall and plans to double that number by 2027. Guyana’s president last week promised free college tuition, a one-time cash payment of nearly $1,000 for every household, halving electricity bills and increasing the minimum wage ahead of next year’s election.

But Guyana’s president is catching up with former President Donald Trump, who began making similarly rich promises to American voters many months ago. The difference is that the South American oil company can probably afford to write the checks, while the US Treasury would have to borrow trillions of dollars more to make good on Trump’s promises.

One of the Republican presidential candidate’s latest buy-the-vote promises is to allow Americans to deduct interest on car and truck loans from their federal income taxes. No wonder he made the pro-car announcement in Detroit, home of the US auto industry and the largest city in one of the biggest swing states in the election campaign.

He has also promised to stop imposing federal income taxes on Social Security benefits and no more taxes on workers’ overtime or tips. Trump played the tax-free tips card on the campaign trail in Nevada, another swing state that could help determine who draws the winning ticket to the White House.

“To the hotel workers and people who get tips, you’re going to be very happy because when I get to the office, we’re not going to tax tips, people who tip,” Trump said. “We will do this immediately, right in office.”

Forget the detail that a president cannot change the tax code; Congress has that power. Promises sound better when you ignore the details.

But details matter, especially when it comes to government spending – or lack of government revenue, it all adds up to the same thing.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a respected nonpartisan think tank that advocates for reducing federal deficits, has summarized all of Trump’s tax cut promises and commitments to increase spending, as well as higher tariffs on imported goods to raise new revenue. Overall, the national debt would increase by $7.5 trillion by 2035, about 20% more than today.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris devoted as much time to lenient policies as Trump, pledging to eliminate the tax on tips, and certainly has her own list of tax changes and spending promises. But it promises low costs compared to the former president: The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that the Harris plan would increase the federal debt by $3.5 trillion by 2035.

Maybe the U.S. government could earn airline miles by putting trillions of dollars in new debt on a credit card. Trump could then promise free travel to win more votes. One chicken for each pot is simply not enough anymore.

Larry Persilly is a longtime Alaska journalist with stints doing political work at the federal, state and local levels in Alaska and Washington, D.C. He lives in Anchorage and is editor of the weekly Wrangell Sentinel.

The views expressed here are those of the author and are not necessarily endorsed by the Anchorage Daily News, which welcomes a wide range of viewpoints. To submit a post for consideration, send an email commentary(at)adn.com. Submit posts of less than 200 words [email protected] or Click here to submit from any web browser. Read our full letters and comments guidelines Here.