College Football Week 8 2024 Action Report: “Texas Gets Respect in the Market”

Guess which conference is dominating the conversation in college football odds for Week 8?

If you have chosen the SEC, then step forward and claim your prize.

Specifically, it’s about the Georgia Bulldogs against the Texas Longhorns. This is the top duel this week. On Wednesday, astute bettors heavily weighed on the favored Longhorns, increasing the spread from Texas -3.5 to -5.5.

“It’s certainly not money that moves a football game on a Wednesday,” said Jeff Benson, director of operations for Circa Sports.

Texas was finally able to extend a tick to -5 at Circa and other sportsbooks due to some interesting early action for the Game of the Week.

Oddsmakers and smart bettors offer their insights on the Georgia vs. Texas game and more in this week’s College Football Betting Nuggets.

We continue upwards

Activity in top spot Texas increased in just five minutes on Wednesday. It started around 1:50 p.m. ET with a sharp landfall at Texas -3.5. Then sharper play at Texas -4/-5, which caused Circa Sports to briefly go to -5.5.

At 1:55 p.m. ET, Texas was a consensus 5-point favorite against No. 5 Georgia. Caesars Sports also experienced some of this strong activity.

“It looks like a reputable group has come in to enforce this line,” said Joey Feazel, head of football trading at Caesars, noting that his business went from -3.5 to -5 in Texas. “We saw how impressive Texas was and, on the other hand, how unimpressive Georgia was.”

“I’m not particularly surprised that Texas is gaining some respect in the marketplace.”

The Longhorns are 6-0 (SU) and 5-1 against the spread (ATS), winning every game in overwhelming fashion. The Bulldogs are 5-1 SU but just 1-5 ATS and have failed to cover the spread in their last five games.

Feazel expects this to result in mainstream public betting also on Texas ahead of Saturday’s kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET.

“We expect Texas to be the No. 1 team in the country and want to prove it. And bettors will definitely be betting on it as game time gets closer,” Feazel said.

College football rocks on FOX

This week’s Big Noon Kickoff on FOX takes place in the Hoosier State as Nebraska takes on Indiana. Caesars Sports opened Indiana at -3 and quickly reached -5, then -5.5/-6 on Sunday. As of Wednesday night, the 16th-ranked Hoosiers were -6.5 (-115) heading into Saturday’s kickoff at noon ET.

Indiana is 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS this season, while Nebraska is solid at 5-1 SU/4-1-1 ATS.

“It’s definitely a big game here. Indiana is the James Madison of the Midwest. All Curt Cignetti does is win,” Feazel said of the first-year Hoosiers coach who left James Madison to take the job at Indiana. “It’s a big price move and really big respect for Indiana at this point, especially against a talented Nebraska team.”

“The betting public thinks Indiana is -6.5 or Nebraska is on the money line. So we need Indiana to win, not cover.”

Hot side on campus

College football betting expert Paul Stone Iowa was -3 against Washington last week and the Hawkeyes had a record of 40-16. This week he’s watching an SEC contest, but not Georgia vs. Texas or Alabama vs. Tennessee.

Rather, Stone plays Texas A&M against No. 14 Mississippi State on Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET.

The Aggies (5-1 SU/2-4 SU) have won five straight since losing their opener to Notre Dame. In contrast, Mississippi State is 1-5 SU/3-3 ATS and has struggled under first-year coach Jeff Lebby.

But Stone felt the Bulldogs showed signs of life in their last two games. Yes, they lost 35-13 at Texas, but they were 37.5 point underdogs in that Week 5 game. After a bye in Week 6, Mississippi State remained at least in the same area code as Georgia, losing 34-31 as an underdog on the road.

Stone recommends taking 15.5-point home winner Mississippi State to stay within two touchdowns of Texas A&M.

“It’s difficult for college football teams to maintain the same level of focus and energy week after week,” Stone said. “Texas A&M has a big home game coming up against LSU. So this is a natural place for the Aggies to maybe take their foot off the accelerator a little bit and take a breather.”

“Mississippi State is making progress and still fighting. I think this game might be closer than expected.”

College football fast hitter

As mentioned above, No. 7 Alabama (5-1 SU/3-3 ATS) will face No. 11 Tennessee (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS) in Knoxville on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Like Georgia-Texas — and LSU-Arkansas, too — it’s another SEC matchup that will have a significant impact on the College Football Playoff odds.

Caesars Sports opened the Crimson Tide at -2 and moved to -2.5 in relatively short order on Sunday. On Monday, the spread climbed to ‘Bama -3.

“I think Tennessee is outclassed in this one. Alabama is going to make money,” Feazel said. “We’re going to need Tennessee. We will certainly be Volunteer fans on Saturday.”

Another one from Feazel, switching gears to an important ACC match:

• No. 6 Miami vs. Louisville: The Hurricanes (6-0 SU/3-3 ATS) alternated between -4.5/-4 to start the week and face the Cardinals (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS) on Saturday at noon ET. On Monday evenings the line traveled to ‘Canes -5, where it remained during the week. “Louisville is not living up to expectations. And right now, a lot of people aren’t too impressed with Miami. But they bet Miami on the spread and Louisville on the moneyline.”

I like big bets and I can’t lie

As of late Wednesday evening, there had been no six-figure games in the college football odds in Week 8. But Caesars Sports reported a few notable five-figure bets, including on the Game of the Week:

• $66,000 Georgia +3.5 vs. Texas. $60,000 to win (total payout $126,000).
• $12,000 Army -15.5 (-115) vs. East Carolina. To win $10,435 (total payout $22,435).

This Bulldogs supporter would probably appreciate a rework since Georgia +5 is now available.

In Army’s case, the bettor at least had the better number, if not the best. The Black Knights, who are a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS, opened as 17.5-point home favorites for a kickoff at noon ET Saturday.

The Army fell as low as -15 on Monday evening. Then the bettor got in at -15.5 and the Knights were at -16 on the week.

We will report after the weekend on how these two punters and many others fared. Enjoy your huge college football Saturday.

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a respected journalist in the national sports betting space. He lives in Las Vegas, where he enjoys playing golf in 110 degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.

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