MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends (October 17)

Today’s MLB Betting Trends:

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 17, 2024. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

On LCS Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 28-7-1 for +20.3 units, a ROI of 58%.
System Match: PLAY OVER in LAD-NYM (o/u at 7)

Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-15 SU (+16.64 units, ROI: -41.6%) & 29-11 RL (+10.45 units, ROI: 26.1%) run since 2003 in the LCS round
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

For the LCS, the beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 23-35 SU (-17.88 units, ROI: -30.8%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-135 at NYM)

Trend: Over the total is 10-4-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 497-419 (54.3%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +21.46 units, for a ROI of 2.3%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic MLB betting trend strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of last season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 352-297 (54.2%) for +14.32 units and an ROI of 2.2%. This isn’t the rate of return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1-1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-135 at NYM)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of last season. Combined March/April ROI has been -1.5%, May has been a brutal -12.5%, June has climbed back up to -5.3%. July has slipped to a consistent -15.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5%, and finally a September/October drain of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: Majority handle bettors endured a terrible playoff season in 2023, with a month-long record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. This is typically a high-volume set of games so bettors lost big in October.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE), NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the season were 341-346 for +72.72 units. The ROI of this angle produced a healthy 10.6%. In the ’24 season, these teams produced a 360-444 record for -26.45 units (ROI -3.3%). That was below standards historically, and we will be looking for a bounce back in 2025.
*In the 2024 playoffs, these teams are 8-7 for +2.92 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY)

Better bullpen underdog teams in -110 to +144 range have won nicely
Digging in deeper to the better bullpen underdog system above, when limiting the plays to those better bullpen underdogs (or pick em’s) in the -110 to +144 range, those teams produced a 319-342 record for +7.54 units (ROI 1.1%). I believe this angle has a bit more merit than the overall bullpen underdog system in that the better bullpens figure to be the difference in games that are expected to be highly competitive. *In the ’24 playoffs, these teams are 6-5 for +1.82 units.
System Matches (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI on that system is -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle.
*In the ’24 playoffs, those on two-game winning streaks are 1-6 for -5.77 units, and those on three-game winning streaks are 1-2 for -1.48 units.
System Match: 3+ games – FADE NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE)

MLB Betting Trends and Systems for the Postseason

The MLB postseason is a 12-team tournament made up of four rounds, with each round being played as a series with progressively more games the deeper you get. Perhaps unlike any other sport, because of the huge 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes of each and every MLB postseason game are enhanced tremendously, and as such, some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With that in mind, one of the key factors in getting ready for these games is to know the history and the trends/systems that have developed in recent years. Let’s dig into the key betting results from recent MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t uncover nuggets that will help make these playoffs a profitable one.

Overall Postseason MLB Betting Trends

Line Angles
Road favorites are on a 12-18 SU skid (-10.40 units, ROI: -34.7%)
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-135 at NYM)

Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 49-56 SU (-22.08 units, ROI: -21%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY), NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

Series wins status
Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 36-40 SU (-23.73 units, ROI: -31.2%) since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY), NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

Stats from last game trends
MLB postseason teams coming off a same series game in which they scored eight or more runs are on a 51-44 SU (+4.91 units, ROI: 5.2%) surge and 52-43 on run lines (+6.83 units, ROI: 7.2%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS

Teams playing as underdogs in an MLB postseason series after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 32-53 SU (-12.87 units, ROI: -15.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY)

Trends based upon regular season records
In the last 115 MLB playoff games matching teams with 7+ regular season win differential between them, the supposed better team is just 52-63 SU (-35.60 units, ROI: -31%) since 2019, including a hard-to-fathom 1-13 in 2023!
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-135 at NYM)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 52-46 SU (+15.40 units, ROI: 15.7%) and 63-35 on run lines (+18.75 units, ROI: 19.1%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Totals angles
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as although the outright record on totals is 73-70, Overs have produced a return of +21.66 units, an ROI of 15.1%. Total vig have been heavily shaded towards Unders.

LCS Round Angles
Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, though, going 40-34 (+16.50 units, ROI: 22.3%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY), NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

Teams losing while failing to score more than two runs in an LCS game have struggled, and going back to 2007, in the follow-up game, their record has been 39-58 SU (-22.94 units, ROI: -23.6%)
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, beware of teams following up a same series win in which they scored 6 runs or more, as those teams are just 23-35 SU (-17.88 units, ROI: -30.8%) since 2015.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE), LA DODGERS (-135 at NYM)

Game 4 underdogs are on a big run of 25-15 SU (+16.64 units, ROI: -41.6%) and 29-11 RL (+10.45 units, ROI: 26.1%) run since 2003 in the LCS round
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Game 4 teams trailing in their LCS series have really struggled of late, going 11-26 SU (-20.61 units, ROI: -55.7%) and 12-25 (-16.9 units, ROI: -45.7%) on run lines since 2005
System Match (FADE): NY METS

On Game 4 totals, Overs have been huge since 2006, going 28-7-1 for +20.3 units, an ROI of 58%.
System Match: PLAY OVER in LAD-NYM (o/u at 7)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight MLB betting trend systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 5+ seasons, going 367-351 (51.1%) for +24.88 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.5%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

Home teams hitting slumps don’t last long
MLB Home teams coming off a game in which they had four hits or fewer have rebounded quickly with a 966-837 (53.6%) record in the follow-up contest since the start of the 2018 season. This has resulted in a profit of +13.32 units for backers and an ROI of 0.7%.
System Matches (PLAY): NY METS (+114 vs LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 83-95 (-48.32 units, ROI: -27.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE): NY YANKEES (-118 at CLE)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYY-CLE OVER 7 (+0.5), LAD-NYM OVER 7 (+0.8)

MLB Team Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following team situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the VSiN MLB Situational Report, updated daily.

(961) NEW YORK-AL (99-69) at (962) CLEVELAND (95-73)
Trend: NYY has a 18-7 record vs. CLE in the last three seasons
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE)

Trend: NYY better vs. RH starters (78-45, +10.62 units)
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (-120 at CLE)

Trend: CLE good at HOME (52-31, +7.88 units)
System Match: PLAY CLEVELAND (+100 vs. NYY)

Trend: Over the total is 10-4-1 when CLE is a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

(963) LOS ANGELES-NL (103-67) at (964) NEW YORK-NL (95-77)
Trend: LAD trending Over vs. NL teams (76-44 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 7)

Trend: LAD better bet vs. LH starters (36-18, +3.46 units)
System Match: PLAY LA DODGERS (-135 at NYM)

Trend: NYM good at night (62-39, +21.27 units)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the last five years.

(963) LOS ANGELES-NL (103-67) at (964) NEW YORK-NL (95-77)
Stat: Jose Quintana has been good in the postseason since 2022 (3 appearances, 16.1 IP, 0 ER, 14 SO)
System Match: PLAY NY METS (+114 vs. LAD)