Oregon vs. Purdue score prediction by an experienced football model

One of the Big Ten’s revamped conference games brought to us by the realignment begins as No. 2 Oregon takes on Purdue on Friday night in Week 8 of college football. Let’s look at the latest prediction for the game using a proven model that determines the winners.

Oregon moved to 6-0 and a perfect 3-0 mark in Big Ten play after picking up a comfortable win over Ohio State last week heading into this road game across the country against the Boilermakers.

Purdue has dropped five straight and played a poor overall offense, going 0-3 in Big Ten games, but will make a change at quarterback in favor of Ryan Browne, who threw for nearly 300 yards as a backup last week.

What does the analytics suggest for this Big Ten matchup?

Let’s look at the SP+ prediction model to preview how Oregon and Purdue will fare ahead of this Week 8 college football game.

So far, the models are strongly on the side of the Ducks over the Boilermakers.

SP+ projects Oregon to defeat Purdue by a projected score of 43 to 17 and win the game by a projected margin of 25.6 points.

The model gives the Ducks a near-universal 95 percent chance of winning overall.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustained and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ model is 180-167-3 against the spread with a win rate of 51.9, after being 26-26 (50%) last weekend.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Oregon is the 27.5-point favorite against Purdue.

FanDuel set the total score for the game at 61.5 points.

And it listed the moneyline odds to win outright for Oregon at -3000 and for Purdue at +1300.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should…

A slim majority of bets expect the Ducks to easily defeat the Boilermakers, according to the latest spread consensus recommendations.

Oregon receives 53 percent of the bets to win the game and cover the spread.

Purdue received 47 percent of bets to either pull off the upset at home or, more likely, keep the game under 4 touchdowns.

Other analytical models also suggest the Ducks will easily defeat the Boilermakers.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to determine winners.

Oregon is projected to win the game outright in the overwhelming 95 percent of the most recent computer simulations of the matchup.

That leaves Purdue as the expected winner in the remaining 5 percent of Sims.

According to the model’s latest projection, Oregon is projected to be 26.3 points better than Purdue on the same field, which is also not enough to cover the spread.

Oregon ranks first among Big Ten teams with an 84.4 percent chance of qualifying for the College Football Playoff and will win 11.2 games this season, according to FPI data.

This model assumes the Boilermakers win a total of 1.7 games, the lowest point total in the Big Ten, and a 0.0 percent chance of playing preseason football.

When: Fri, Oct 18
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET | 5:00 p.m. PT
TV: Fox network

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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and needs help, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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