Now, at the end of his term, Biden is allowing himself to play carrot and stick with Israel to demand more aid for Gaza

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – In his final months in office, President Joe Biden is signaling a new willingness to use U.S. military aid to Israel as both a carrot and a stick to advance his high-risk confrontation with Iran and Iran-backed militant groups influence.

But while this approach increases Washington’s involvement in Israeli decision-making just weeks before the U.S. presidential election, it is unclear whether it will help achieve Biden’s goals, including preventing a broader regional conflict and compelling Israel to deal with the increasingly dire situation to address the evolving humanitarian situation in Gaza. Experts say.

Biden’s administration announced Sunday that it would send about 100 troops to Israel along with an advanced U.S. missile defense system, a rare deployment that came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government launched a retaliatory attack on Iran following an Iranian missile attack on January 1. October is considering.

The Biden administration also sent a letter to Israel on Sunday warning that it must take steps next month to improve the humanitarian situation in Gaza or face restrictions on U.S. military aid.

Publicly, U.S. officials say the seemingly contradictory moves fit with longstanding policies aimed at both ensuring Israel’s defense and advocating for the protection of civilians in Gaza’s years-long war.

But current and former officials privately admit that these are milestones that increase U.S. commitment to Israeli strategy, even as Biden is on his way out the door.

Israel has often defied U.S. advice, creating political difficulties for the Biden administration, which is under pressure from some liberal activists in the Democratic Party to use U.S. influence to contain Israel.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the government’s carrot-and-stick approach “at a time when you might not think the government is so active, implies that it is clear “thinks and.” Acting.”

But he warned that Washington was unlikely to reduce its military support for Israel if the conflict with Iran worsens.

“It is almost inconceivable to me that this administration, given the possibility of serious escalation – the Israeli response and the countermeasures of the Iranians – could consider anything like a serious limitation or conditioning of military systems,” he said.

White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Tuesday that the letter was not “intended as a threat” but that it appeared the Israelis were taking the issues seriously.

An Israeli official in Washington said: “The letter has been received and is being examined in detail by Israeli security officials.”

Israel said on Wednesday that 50 aid trucks had been moved from Jordan to northern Gaza, possibly an early result of US demands.

A deadline to increase aid

According to Israeli sources, Biden has prioritized Israel’s defense since Hamas militants sparked the war by killing about 1,200 people. He refused to stop arms shipments to Israel, except for 2,000-pound bombs, despite outcry from his fellow Democrats as Israel’s war in Gaza killed 42,000 people, according to Palestinian health authorities.

In April, the government called for better protection for civilians and aid workers in Gaza, which U.S. officials said led to a temporary increase in aid flows to the area.

But Sunday’s letter appeared to be the clearest ultimatum to Netanyahu’s government since the start of the Gaza conflict. It outlined concrete steps that Israel must take within 30 days, including allowing at least 350 trucks carrying aid supplies to enter the Gaza Strip per day.

There is a possibility that Washington could bar Israel from receiving U.S. weapons because of its restrictions on aid delivery, said John Ramming Chappell, an attorney and legal counsel at the Center for Civilians in Conflict.

“It’s a small step toward a very significant change,” he said.

Three officials who took part in the discussion said Netanyahu had called an emergency meeting on Wednesday to discuss expanding humanitarian aid to Gaza, with aid likely to be increased soon.

The decision to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (THAAD) was a similarly large step, former officials and analysts said, in line with the strategy of offering close military support to the Israelis to influence the conduct of military operations .

A former defense official described the operation as a “paradigm shift” given Israel’s longstanding security doctrine of defending itself. It also potentially raises the stakes for the United States.

“The US is actually putting US ‘skin in the game’ by stationing US forces in Israel, which was the recipient of 180 Iranian ballistic missiles just two weeks ago,” the official said.

The Middle East is eagerly awaiting Israel’s response to a rocket attack earlier this month by Tehran in retaliation for Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon.

Biden has opposed any Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites and expressed concern about an attack on energy sites.

“This is probably a carrot to persuade the Israelis not to go big,” said Thomas Karako, director of the missile defense project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, citing the possibility that Israel could opt for nuclear and other attacks Goals.

“And, you know, you don’t ship a multibillion-dollar asset without certain strings attached.”

The White House did not respond directly to a question about whether the THAAD’s deployment to Israel might have been part of an agreement with the Israelis not to attack Iranian oil or nuclear sites.

The administration is running out of time.

The 30 days Biden has given Israel to comply with his demands will expire after the US election on November 5, giving Netanyahu the opportunity to decide how fully to comply, Miller said, particularly if the Republican nominee , with whom he is closely associated, former President Donald Trump defeated Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Netanyahu believes he is at the point of maximum influence, and that may well be the case. You may have a new president in a few weeks who he likes much better,” Miller added. —Reuters