The NBA’s new extension rules may not be enough for the Grizzlies’ Jaren Jackson Jr.

In recent months, a dizzying tide of NBA players have agreed to contract extensions with their respective teams. Much credit for this goes to the league’s new collective bargaining agreement, which increases the amount of money teams can offer players in extensions.

However, Memphis Grizzlies center Jaren Jackson Jr. could put these new rules to the test next year.

Jackson signed a four-year, $104.7 million contract with the Grizzlies in October 2021, with the value decreasing with each season. The Grizzlies advanced his contract to offset the massive raise Ja Morant would receive once his rookie contract expires after the 2022-23 season.

In the first year of his extension, Jackson earned nearly $29 million. This year he is expected to make less than $25.3 million. He will make just $23.4 million in the final year of his current contract, 2025-26. That could make it difficult for the Grizzlies to sign him to another contract extension before he becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2026.

Under the previous CBA, teams could only offer 120% of a player’s previous salary or 120% of the league’s estimated average player salary as a starting salary for a new contract extension. The new CBA increased this value to 140%. That paved the way for a number of new expansions over the past year, but Jackson could be a stress test of whether those rules went far enough.

Between now and October 21, the Grizzlies can only offer Jackson a three-year extension starting at $32.8 million and having a total value of $106.2 million. There has been no indication that Jackson is considering entering into such a deal. They can offer him the same starting salary in an extension next summer, but they could end up tacking on an extra year, bringing the total value over four years to $146.8 million.

However, Jackson could earn far more than that as a free agent in 2026. With the NBA’s new national TV contracts expected to skyrocket the salary cap over the next few years, Jackson could be headed for a $200 million-plus payday as a free agent.

If the cap goes up as much as possible over the next two seasons, it would end up at around $170.1 million in 2026. Jackson would then be eligible to sign a five-year, $296 million contract with the Grizzlies in free agency or a four-year, $219.4 million contract with another team. That’s at least a $70 million-plus difference between what he can make with an extension.

Granted, there’s no guarantee that the Grizzlies or any other team would be willing to offer him a full 30 percent max contract in free agency. The new CBA imposes harsh penalties on teams that are significantly over the luxury tax limit, which caused many teams to strain their wallets last offseason. As a result, Paul George, Klay Thompson and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all signed with new teams in free agency.

However, Jackson would likely draw significant interest if he becomes a free agent in 2026. The 25-year-old is one of the NBA’s most productive shot blockers and was named Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23. Additionally, he posted a career-high average of 22.5 points per game for the injury-plagued Grizzlies last season and is a capable three-point shooter, which only adds to his two-way appeal.

The 2024-25 season could determine whether Jackson signs an extension next summer or decides to test free agency in 2026. If he makes an All-NBA team or is named Defensive Player of the Year again, he would be eligible to sign a supermax extension next summer, starting at 35% of the 2026-27 salary cap. This five-year extension could be worth up to $345.3 million.

Even if Jackson doesn’t make an All-NBA team or win DPOY, he will have the luxury of seeing how next offseason turns out before deciding whether to sign an extension. A handful of players still managed to make money as free agents last summer, but the majority ended up making less than expected as the new CBA impacted spending across the league. If that happens again next offseason, Jackson might be more inclined to sign a contract extension with the Grizzlies.

Admittedly, there is reason to believe there may have been an anomaly last summer. The cap is up less than 4% from last season, but is widely expected to increase by the full 10% allowed in each of the next few years. The CBA also forces teams to spend at least 90% of the salary cap by opening night of the regular season, meaning teams can no longer hoard tens of millions in cap space to allow for salary drops at the trade deadline.

Barring a major surprise, Jackson will likely hold off on signing a contract extension in the next few days and expects to reevaluate his options next offseason. If he makes an All-NBA team or wins DPOY this season, he will be eligible to sign a supermax extension with the Grizzlies. But if he doesn’t, he’ll have to decide whether to secure a nine-figure deal or test free agency in 2026 to maximize his earning potential.

Unless otherwise stated, all statistics above NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the glass or Basketball reference. All salary information about Spotrac and salary cap information about RealGM. All odds over FanDuel Sports Betting.