What remains of the progressive project?

I spent virtually the entire 2010s—my first decade as a writer and pundit—advocating for various progressive causes on my blog and in the pages of Bloomberg. I have always described myself as a “liberal” rather than a “progressive,” but with the understanding that those two things were actually not very different. I called expanded immigration, state health insuranceand a larger welfare statehe praised Benefits of diversityacclaimed a revival of trade unions And stronger antitrust lawHe criticized mass incarceration and dreamed about it an exit from frackingand even advocated Reparations for slavery. In the late 2010s, it felt as if a long wave of progressive sentiment that had been building since the late 1980s or early 1990s had finally reached a critical level of intensity – social changes were already occurring at a rapid pace, and it felt how big changes to our economic system would be possible.

A few years later, I’m not so sure anymore. My values ​​have not become more conservative – my desire for a more economically egalitarian and socially tolerant society has not diminished in the slightest. You won’t see me yelling, “I didn’t leave my party, my party left ME!!” and storming off to the GOP in anger. But I must say that I now doubt the practical effectiveness of some of the measures I have pursued in recent years. Others still seem like good ideas, but I was dismayed by their botched implementation when they were tried. And many progressive ideas simply appear unable to win majority political support in the near future. It’s looking increasingly likely that America is on its way there a more conservative decade.

I’m not the only one who noticed the change. Dave Weigel I recently wrote a post It details how Kamala Harris’ campaign is to the right of Biden’s 2020 candidacy, both in tone and rhetoric as well as actual policy. Harris and other Democrats have touted their tough stance on the border, abandoned major new spending programs, stopped talking about a public option for health insurance, loudly proclaimed their support for Israel, advocated for oil drilling and walked away tough on crime. Harris’ political agenda contains numerous pro-business and deregulatory ideas. She even brags about owning a gun and be prepared to shoot intruders.

If all this gives you whiplash after the left’s apparent triumph in the 2010s, you’re not alone. The change has happened so quickly that I think a lot of people don’t even understand it yet – Harris is running as a centrist, but the majority of Americans are Still say she’s to their left. Perceptions of the parties probably take several cycles to adjust – Michael Dukakis and Walter Mondale ran as centrists in the ’80s, but it wasn’t until Bill Clinton in 1992 that America believed in the true moderate Democrats.

But I don’t think the move is a cynical election-year ploy by Harris – I think it’s here to stay. The fact is that the progressive project is failing on issue after issue, either by the realities of American political opinion or by its own failures. In 2012 or 2019, progressivism felt like it had forward momentum; now it feels adrift.

Of course, none of this makes me support the Democrats less – quite the opposite. Kamala’s moderation shows that she is sensible and pragmatic, unlike the increasingly sensible ones insane and unhinged Trump. But it makes me feel pensive and insecure. I see some good and important future directions for the progressive cause – affluence, YIMBYism, industrial policy and the like. But I don’t know if these remaining good ideas will be fully embraced, and I don’t know if they will be enough to build a broad political movement.

So I definitely want to go through a number of progressive issues from the 2010s – immigration, DEI, energy and climate, crime and policing, the welfare state, universal healthcare, unions and trans rights – and explain why I think they mostly stick we all stuck.

In the 2010s, immigration evolved from a technocratic consensus to a progressive cause célèbre. This happened for two reasons. The main reason was that it was Donald Trump and his reactionary movement against Immigration, probably for racist reasons (although they never explicitly admit this). For many progressives, that meant fighting for Immigration as a means to combat racism. A lesser reason was that many progressives either implicitly or explicitly agreed with the idea that immigration would create something a permanent democratic majority.

Pro-immigration sentiment surged in the 2010s. In 2020, Gallup reported that for the first time since tracking began in 1965, the percentage of Americans who said they wanted more immigration was greater than the percentage who said they wanted less:

Accordingly, progressives have felt quite comfortable encouraging immigration by any means available — not just through the normal legal immigration system, but by helping asylum seekers stay in the country after crossing the border illegally. A close progressive friend even told me that allowing asylum seekers to do this is a human right. These weren’t open borders per se, but conservatives could be forgiven for not recognizing the functional difference.

I even began to consider left-wing arguments for immigration as such a form of reparation for colonialism. This was the central argument of the book This Country is Our Country: An Immigrant’s Manifestowhich I found because I saw it recommended by some prominent progressive media figures. (In my defence, I have always been appalled by such arguments, which in my view always undermine the basic principle of immigration as a positive-sum policy.)

What a difference a few years make. As soon as Joe Biden took the oath of office, anti-immigration sentiment began to rise and is stronger today than at almost any time since 1965:

Opinion poll after Opinion poll now shows that the Americans – even Hispanics – are now advocating the mass deportation of illegal immigrants. Most Democrats don’t, but a sizable minority do:

It is important to note that the Americans did this not was generally against immigration. They are particularly in favor of immigration of highly qualified people, immigration to alleviate labor shortages and the admission of more refugees. This is also shown by the same polls that show majority support for mass deportations Majority support for a path to citizenship for people who have been staying in the country illegally for a long time.

America absolutely has not become a xenophobic, closed society; We still like immigrants and immigration in general. Trump’s attitudes are not representative. Americans simply don’t like the practice of rewarding asylum seekers for crossing the border illegally. They do not want a policy of “more immigration by any means available” if those means consist of condoning the violation of the country’s laws and borders. They demand it choose, as a nationwho comes into the country and that their decisions are not overturned by lawyers and courts.

The progressive idea of ​​freedom of immigration in the 2010s as a culture war issue is therefore dead in the water.