Goals per Route Running Report: Week 7 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome back to the TPRR report. The bye weeks are in full swing and the Cowboys and Bears have a week off. As a reminder, Targets Per Route Run (TPRR) is a metric that quantifies a player’s efficiency in completing objectives. For wide receivers, a target is the most important underlying metric to predict consistent fantasy output. Therefore, a player’s ability to achieve these goals at a high rate is crucial. Historically, a TPRR of 20% is a good minimum threshold that we want to see, and the best of the best consistently see TPRRs above 30%.

Let’s take a look at this week’s top performers. As always, TPRR is part of the story. The number of routes run by each player is an important indicator of a team’s game flow and propensity to throw.

6th week reactions

Pulse check on CeeDee Lamb

Someone call Madame Toussaint because the Cowboys did it waxed from the Lions at home. Dak Prescott has had a few weeks in a row of “below average,” so CeeDee Lamb’s stat lines haven’t been as consistently stratospheric as those in 2023. This week, however, Lamb is at the top of the list with a TPRR of 38%, and he’s someone which you may be able to gain in a trade for a manager desperate for a Week 2 win. Timing is everything. The Cowboys will face the 49ers after their bye and will have plus matchups almost every week after that. Sign me up. Kavontae Turpin makes the top 25 for the second year in a row, but is still a part-time player. Most of Turpin’s action occurred with Cooper Rush at center. Jalen Tolbert followed up a solid performance in Week 5 and posted a measly 10% TPRR in Week 6. It’s hard to glean much from the bust, but his underlying performance doesn’t warrant a spot on the roster during the bye week.

Demario Douglas

Is Drake Maye…good? Well, no. At least not yet. However, after a poor start (three-and-out, then an INT on the next drive) and a lost fumble, Maye delivered a fantasy-relevant day. There’s significant risk in interfering with the Patriots’ offense, but Demario Douglas (32% TPRR) is a smart choice for a bye-week filler or a DFS pick in Week 6. The Jaguars’ defense gives up the most yards of the season on league, and Jacksonville just made another rookie, Caleb Williams, look like a league MVP.

Ups and downs

Josh Downs (31% TPRR) has seen nine or more targets through three games. Joe Flacco was the Colts’ quarterback and is the season leader in TPRR among qualified receivers (full list below). Use this in trade discussions to sell high on downs. Hopefully this trend continues with Anthony Richardson under center, but the passing percentage will most likely decrease in Indy.

Last Dance, Part 2?

Davante Adams is hovering around a 20% TPRR in 2024, but that’s not necessarily a prediction of what he’ll do with the Jets. Adams’ arrival erases any glimmer of hope you may have had for Mike Williams (11% TPRR), and it appears that Adams is set to be Allen Lazard on steroids instead of Aaron Rodgers. As we heard ad nauseam On Monday Night Football, Rodgers places great value on the trust of his receivers. Garrett Wilson’s desired share is likely to take a hit, and I expect all the Jets to lose in the red zone if everything goes according to plan in New York (because when has that ever not worked out?).

A rising tide raises all bills

The Bills traded to get Amari Cooper from Cleveland, potentially saving many managers’ fantasy seasons. Before the trade, Buffalo simply didn’t have enough talent on the outside, allowing opposing defenses to focus on the middle of the field, causing even more problems for Josh Allen. Keon Coleman hasn’t cracked 20% TPRR this season. Khalil Shakir, who is recovering from an ankle injury, has seen his target rate drop in every game since Week 2, but his position in the slot could get a boost with the balance Cooper brings to the offense. The Bills made this trade to give the overall offense a boost. If it worked, maybe everyone would be happy (except Deshaun Watson, but I think we’re all happy with that trade-off).

The full list – TPRR leaders of the season