NBA Survival Guide: 5 Breakout Candidates Who Can Make Significant Leaps

Each of these top prospects, one from each of the last five draft classes, is poised to take a significant step forward. Whether they are already showing brilliant talent or are still slowly developing, these players are ready to improve their game – and make an important contribution to the future of their teams.

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Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets

Second draft in 2023

Miller’s rookie season is actually divided into two distinct parts. In his first 38 games, he averaged 14.7 points on 53.6 percent shooting, which is solid for a rookie. Especially one who will be asked to step up on a struggling team like Charlotte. He was lethal when it came to hitting 3s from the catch, but he was pretty inconsistent in other areas.

Then something changed. In his last 35 games, which began in late January, Miller went one better – 20.3 points per game, 56.4 percent correct shooting. He played more minutes, had a higher usage rate and his efficiency increased in all areas of the field when it came to his own shots. Check this out:

This is a newbie figuring things out in real time. Miller created for himself, taking stronger angles to the rim, absorbing contact and showing a newfound confidence with his mid-range fadeaways and deep pull-up threes. At the end of the season he seemed to be a real goalscorer.

But here’s where it gets really interesting: LaMelo Ball was out for the season that started at the end of January, Right as Miller’s numbers began to explode. Coincidence? Probably not. Without LaMelo on the field, Miller had more freedom of action, and this could be difficult in the future. We all know LaMelo is a pass-first guard, and having a guy like that should make life easier for Miller as he looks cleaner and allows for more throws. But if Miller wants to continue his development as a playmaker and creator, there has to be a certain balance.

Think about last season: When Miller played alongside LaMelo, he only had the ball in his hands 5.3 percent of the time. This is Royce O’Neale’s territory. But when LaMelo was sidelined, that number rose to 9.6 percent — basically Paul George levels. So what happens when LaMelo comes back? Is he willing to let Miller cook? Because if he can do it, that could be the key to Miller’s next leap, and from a pure basketball standpoint, there’s no doubt that Miller is ready. The only question is how well he and LaMelo can coexist and maximize each other’s game.

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Ryan Dunn, Phoenix Suns

Designed on the 28th in 2024

Dunn was light the best defensive prospect in the 2024 draft. With a height of 1.80 m and a wingspan of 2.10 m, he can switch between multiple positions, interrupt passing lanes, block shots – you name it. His defensive IQ is unmatched. Dunn flies around on defense, makes flawless rotations, blocks shots at the rim and generally makes life difficult for opponents. In a league increasingly dominated by versatile wing defenders, Dunn has the potential to be a Herb Jones-level lockdown guy.

But the big question mark? His shooting. As a sophomore at Virginia, Dunn attempted just 35 three-pointers in 34 games, hitting just 20 percent. That’s not just inconsistent – it’s nearly unplayable in today’s NBA. So when the Suns grabbed him on the 28th, there was understandable skepticism. You knew what you were getting defensively, but could he survive offensively?

Here’s the kicker: In four preseason games with the Suns, Dunn has made 12 of his 27 attempts from long range. Sure, the sample size is small, but there are reasons for optimism. His form looks much better, especially in the way he uses his legs, and the fact that he’s shooting more often shows a level of confidence that simply wasn’t there at Virginia. I spoke to scouts before the draft and some insisted that his shot had been reworked during pre-draft practice. One manager even told me I would regret ranking him in the 30s. After some rethinking and further digging, I moved it to 16th. Even that might prove too low if his sweater holds up.

If Dunn had shot even 35 percent from 3 on decent volume — not elite, just average — he would have been a lottery pick. If he shoots like he did last season, we’re talking top 10, maybe even top 5. He’s something very special defensively. And offensively, it’s not just about shooting. Dunn is a smart passer, a good screener and an efficient finisher at the rim.

And here’s why this matters for Phoenix: Defense and depth were the biggest question marks entering the season. Dunn doesn’t solve everything, but he can really make a difference on both fronts. If his shot holds up, he gives the Suns a versatile, two-pronged role player who can take some of the pressure off their stars. Yes, Phoenix’s season still depends on the health of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal. But if Dunn continues to hit jumpers? He could be the kind of supportive piece that lifts her ceiling.

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Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder

Designed 12th in 2022

In the latest episode of The Kevin O’Connor Showa listener named Jacob asked me: Besides inexperience, what is the biggest hurdle keeping the Thunder from winning a championship? I said the answer is a second superstar behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. We know what SGA is capable of. But Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren both underwhelmed in the postseason. Fair, considering her youth. But if a title is the expectation, then one of them has to flourish.

Williams appears to be the most likely candidate. This will be his third season and he has already shown flashes. However, his biggest downfall in the playoffs was his reluctance to shoot three-pointers. He gave some candid looks while catching and was hesitant to defend off the dribble. He attempted fewer than four per game all season. However, something is changing this preseason. Williams shoots from three distances and made 10 shots in 33 minutes of play.

If Williams continues to shoot 3-pointers off the dribble as shown above, it changes the picture of what this Thunder team can be. What if Williams doesn’t take the next step? OKC is still fun, still young, but it will likely remain stuck in the same “great but no champions” category. Without this second star, the thunder will hit a wall. But if Jalen steps up, we’re talking about a team built to win now, not just in the future. If not, we’ll probably have to wait another year or two for this team to really break through.

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Immanuel Quickley, Toronto Raptors

Drafted 25th overall by the Knicks in 2020

Quickley’s move to the Raptors last season added a new dimension to his game. With the Knicks, Quickley put up solid numbers – 15 points and 2.5 assists per game – but after moving to Toronto, those numbers increased to 18.6 points and 6.8 assists. Quickley developed from sixth man to starter and his offensive role was strengthened. In New York, Quickley had 41 touches per game and held the ball for just 3.2 minutes of possession time. For the Raptors, those numbers jumped to 75 touches and 6.2 minutes of possession per game. That’s almost twice as much time to control the offense, make decisions and create plays.

The Raptors rewarded Quickley with a five-year, $162.5 million contract, which says a lot about what they think of him. They didn’t do that need to sign the extension when they did.

This added volume explains the massive increase in assists and is also the reason why he has become such an important player for the Raptors. If Quickley can continue this trend, he has the potential to become a cornerstone in Toronto’s offense.

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Deuce McBride, New York Knicks

Drafted 36th in 2021

New York’s decision to trade Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo for Karl-Anthony Towns undoubtedly changes the frontcourt, but the impact hits the backcourt just as hard. With DiVincenzo gone, the Knicks lost a key playoff scorer and someone to provide stability on both ends of the court. Now the question arises: who will enter? Enter Miles “Deuce” McBride. Despite being smaller than DiVincenzo, McBride brings ferocious defense, a knockdown jumper and dynamic shot creation that has only grown since last season when the Knicks acquired Quickley and RJ Barrett in a trade for OG Anunoby.

Over the final two months of last season, McBride played an average of 30 minutes per game, scoring just under 12 points while shooting 39 percent from 3-point range. The Knicks felt comfortable trading Quickley and Barrett because they had confidence in DiVincenzo and McBride — and now they’re doubling down on Deuce by trading DiVincenzo too.

The Knicks have a lot of players ahead of McBride in the rotation. Jalen Brunson will lead the way offensively, with Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart serving as versatile wingers and Towns at center. But McBride has a good chance of being a potential Sixth Man of the Year candidate. He has already proved the Knicks right once. And now, with even more responsibility, Deuce must take another step for New York to capitalize on its new roster.