Great throws and turnover plays

• Josh Allen leads in both stats: The Bills QB has finished in the top eight every year since 2020, including a first-place finish in 2022 (7.6%) and a third-place finish in 2023 (6.2%). He made 13 great throws across the league in six weeks.

• An explanation of the PFF scoring system: PFF ratings on a plus/minus scale where players are rewarded for positive plays above expectations and penalized for negative plays in 0.5 increments. Throws rated at the upper end of the PFF scale (+1.0, +1.5 and +2.0) are categorized as major throws. The lower range of the scale (-1.0, -1.5 and -2.0) are classified as revenue-worthy games.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

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As the season now approaches its halfway point, we need to analyze larger sample sizes and can begin highlighting key statistics from the database. This week we’ll look at a PFF classic: great throws and turnover plays.

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PFF RATING 101: A refresher on how PFF grades QB play

Before we dive into the highest shooting and turnover-worthy plays in Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, let’s take a quick look at how the PFF rating system works.

How PFF grades quarterback play

PFF ratings on a plus/minus scale where players are rewarded for positive plays above expectations and penalized for negative plays in 0.5 increments.

The playing level grades are almost always between -2 To +2although there are very rare exceptions for the most egregious pieces.

Completing a routine screen pass earns a quarterback a neutral grade of 0, as NFL quarterbacks should be expected to make these throws. If you fail to complete the same screen, you will receive a negative grade. However, the scale also allows for harsher penalties if a quarterback’s mistake is more serious – such as throwing the screen directly into the arms of a lurking defender for a pick-six.

These negative plays are important because dangerous throws do not always result in ball losses. 57 players have been dropped so far this season Interceptionfour of them were thrown Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. This helps explain why Allen is currently ranked 18th in PFF’s passing rankings despite being fifth in passing grade and fifth in passing grade touchdowns.

Conversely, positive throws often go unrecognized in traditional statistics due to external factors such as lost passes. In the first six weeks of the season, 320 potential completions were lost due to receiver errors. With a total of 3,870 completions league-wide, eliminating receiver errors would increase completions by about six percentage points.

What is a big litter?

Throws rated at the upper end of the PFF scale (+1.0, +1.5 and +2.0) are categorized as major throws.

A big throw is a pass with high difficulty and high value. They excel at ball placement and timing, typically on deeper passes or into tight windows.

These throws can also occur under difficult conditions, such as when a quarterback is under intense pressure but turns a potential negative play into a positive play. Other examples include throws from tight windows in the red zone where space is limited, or perfectly placed shots from 50 yards across the field.

What is a revenue-worthy game?

The lower range of the scale (-1.0, -1.5 and -2.0) are classified as revenue-worthy games.

For quarterbacks, turnover-worthy plays happen in two main ways: either by completing a pass that has a high probability of being intercepted, or by failing to secure the ball, resulting in a fumble.

Not all turnover-worthy plays are created equal. PFF’s scoring system captures the various levels of poor throws, ranging from a late pass that allows a defender to break through the ball, to a miss that throws the ball directly to a defender, or a simple interception, which is passed directly to the defense.

Highest shooting rates and turnover-worthy play rates through Week 6

Highest big throw rates

1. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (7.7%): This is a somewhat limited sample as Tagovailoa has only attempted 62 passes in two appearances this season. Still, the Dolphins’ quarterback recorded five great throws in those two games, a year after ranking top 5 in overall percentage (36) and top 10 in passing percentage (5.8%).

1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (7.7%): The Bills quarterback is never too far from the top in this statistic. In fact, he has finished in the top eight every year since 2020, including a first place finish in 2022 (7.6%) and a third place finish in 2023 (6.2%). He made 13 great throws across the league in six weeks.

3. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (6.1%): The first overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft has recorded 11 big throws so far this season, but six of them came in his incredible Week 2 performance against the LA Rams. Murray led the league in big-shot percentage in 2021 (7.9%), but his numbers declined in both 2022 (2.2%, 33rd) and 2023 (2.8%, 34th). Could this be the year he returns to the top of the rankings?

4. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (5.3%): Rodgers has made at least two big throws in five of his six games, with his 12 big throws ranking second in the league behind only Josh Allen. The future Hall of Famer continues his impressive track record, posting a high shooting percentage of over 5.0% in 13 seasons prior to 2024.

5. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (5.1%): Carr has had a great start to the season but will now be sidelined for the next three to four weeks as he recovers from an oblique injury. Before he went down, Carr made seven great throws, recording at least one in every game he played.

Highly profitable gaming odds

1. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (7.7%): The second-year quarterback is simply very inexperienced when it comes to playing the position – he is the youngest starting quarterback in the league and has only made 21 total starts since high school.

At the moment he is finding it difficult to reconcile the moments of brilliance with some game-changing decisions in football. In his four games, Richardson has recorded seven turnover plays, four of which were rated at the harsher end of the scale.

2. Tyler Huntley, Miami Dolphins (6.9%): After Tua Tagovailoa went down, the Dolphins signed Huntley from the Ravens’ practice squad and immediately put him into action in Week 4. Although he made five starts, things didn’t go smoothly; He has recorded five turnover plays but has yet to make a single big shot.

3. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (5.8%): Things haven’t been perfect for Hurts to start the year, as his passing grade of 53.5 currently ranks 31st among 36 qualifying quarterbacks, which would be a career low if the season ended today. He has produced 11 turnover plays and just five great throws in six weeks. The silver lining is that he has only thrown four true interceptions so far.

4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills (5.0%): That’s what we’ve typically seen from Josh Allen – he’ll make the big shots, but he’s also prone to the odd turnover-worthy play. Yes, he’s finished in the top eight players every year since 2020, but he’s also recorded 171 turnover plays since entering the league in 2018 – the most in the NFL at nearly 30 during that span. Allen has 10 turnover-worthy games this year, despite being the only quarterback in the NFL who hasn’t thrown a pick in 2024.

5. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (4.9%): No quarterback has recorded more turnover-worthy plays than Prescott’s 13 through six weeks, and the Dallas quarterback only has 10 big throws to make up for it. His 4.9% turnover percentage is on pace to be the worst of his career, which is especially disappointing after he posted a career-high 2.2% in 2023.

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