Red Zone Report: Week 6 (Fantasy Football)

Welcome to the sixth Red Zone Report of 2024, where I cover the important statistics and information you need to know from 20 yards and beyond. The sixth week had a lot of exciting football to offer, but also a lot of serious injuries. Let’s take a look at offenses across the league.

Check this out Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit to look at the usage of each player in the red zone, the 10 zone and the five zone.

As always, let’s start with a look at efficiency inside and outside the red zone.

Tua Tagovailoa should return soon, so I expect the Miami offense to bounce back from its current position. Cleveland remains the worst offense outside the red zone. A possible quarterback change may be the only thing that can help them right now. Buffalo’s impressive offense will look to continue their success from the 2024 season tonight against the Jets.

Rusher

The following graphic shows the relationship between rusher EPA per game and success rate in the red zone over the course of the season.

Bucky Irving continued his excellent play, this time in the absence of Rachaad White. His close-range success may lead to not only more touches in the red zone, but potentially more total touches than White once he returns. The Falcons don’t have a clear superior defender in the red zone, and they’ve spread their close-range attacks fairly evenly. In fact, Tyler Allgeier has more red zone rushes this year than his counterpart Bijan Robinson. Let’s take a look at some of the more interesting backfields this week.

Atlanta Rushers

Starting with the recently mentioned Atlanta backfield, it was an incredibly productive week for the team. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier shared 13 runs in the red zone, with four going to Robinson and the remaining 11 to Allgeier. Of the eight runs within 10 yards, Robinson turned his three runs into two touchdowns, while Allgeier turned his five runs into one touchdown. The powerful running back duo can produce two strong fantasy players, although Allegeier’s potential is limited due to his lack of consistent touches.

Detroit Rushers

The Detroit Lions suffered a complete loss to “America’s Team” on Sunday afternoon. Like most of the Lions’ offensive feats, this began with the strong, two-headed backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. While the backfield is known to split opportunities pretty evenly between the two, this week belonged to David Montgomery. Of the team’s five carries inside the red zone, three went to Montgomery – two of which he converted into touchdowns. Gibbs still had a solid game but failed to convert in the red zone. Given his much lower draft cost compared to Gibbs, David Montgomery appears to be a steal in 2024.

Najee Harris

Najee Harris had his best game of the season yesterday, although his opportunities in the red zone over the course of the season have made it incredibly difficult for him to consistently put up strong fantasy football numbers. First of all, the entire offense only had 14 rushes inside the 10-yard line all season. For a powerback like Harris, this severely limits his fantasy limits. As if his situation couldn’t get any worse, new Steelers quarterback Justin Fields has been a significant part of those rushes, turning six opportunities into two touchdowns. After a great performance this week was greatly inflated by a 36-yard touchdown, I’d look to sell Najee Harris high.

Recipient

Similar to the previous graph, this graph shows receiver EPA per play versus red zone success rate.

A rare sight: CeeDee Lamb is at the bottom of the receiving efficiency graph. The Cowboys’ offense has failed to live up to the standards set in the team’s recent history. Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard (who both appear in the upper right quadrant of the graphic) play tonight against Buffalo. It will be interesting to see how they perform in their first game without former head coach Robert Saleh.

George Kittle

In a very productive Thursday Night Football game against the Seahawks, George Kittle and the 49ers scored important fantasy points. Kittle was targeted twice in the red zone and converted both opportunities into touchdowns. Brandon Aiyuk has remained very quiet since signing a massive contract extension this offseason. As the best tight end in fantasy football right now, Kittle has caught five touchdowns in five games, all of which came in the red zone.

Chicago receivers

Caleb Williams and the Bears performed in front of an international audience in an early morning showdown against the Jaguars. In the red zone, Cole Kmet scored his only target in the red zone for an early touchdown. Keenan Allen was tackled twice in the red zone and hauled in for two touchdowns. Finally, DJ Moore recorded catches on both of his targets in the red zone, although he also failed to score. Caleb Williams has improved tremendously as of late, posting a QBR above 80 in each of his last two starts after failing to break 40 in any of his first four starts. As a result, everyone in the Bears offense should see more opportunities as well as a higher quality of those opportunities.

Diploma

As we approach the final games of the week, we will continue to analyze and explore the red zone to find statistical advantages for fantasy football. Check back next week for the next Red Zone Report!

For more insight and a complete breakdown of red zone rushing and targeting data, try the Red Zone Report tool as part of the Ultimate Draft Kit