Posted on by

MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Performance Ratings and Trends (October 13)

MLB Top Picks Based on Betting Splits, Performance Ratings and Trends (October 13)

The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings presented on VSiN qualifying for the Sunday, October 13, 2024 MLB games. This report is intended to mimic the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo every day with the MLB Board of Directors.

Top MLB Resources:

AJ’s angle

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN analyst AJ Makinen.

Unders have a big lead at 16-7 over Game 1 with a total of 8 or more players from 2000 (+7.3 units, ROI: 31.7%).
System compliance: Play BELOW the total (out/out at 8)

In the last 112 MLB playoff games where teams with a regular season win differential of more than 7 met, the supposedly better team since 2019 has been just 50-62 SU (-36.05 units, ROI: -32.2 %), including an elusive 1-13 in 2023!
System adjustment (FADE): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend their winning streaks
Over the last two regular seasons, teams with worse Steve Makinen bullpen ratings went 428-485 for -78.6 units in a game on two-game winning streaks, for an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams with more than three winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI of this system is -7.2%. This was a very consistent angle.
*In the 2024 playoffs, worse bullpens are 0-5 on two-game winning streaks for -5.77 unitsand those with a three-game winning streak are 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System compliance: 2 games – FADE NY METS (+136 at LAD)

NY METS
LETDOWN by series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-19 (38.7%) -11.35 units, ROI: -36.6%
System adjustment (FADE): NY METS (+136 at LAD)

Strategies using MLB DraftKings betting splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website and a feature that we believe is a fantastic resource for bettors is the bet split pages. These are the pages we created using the data DraftKings kindly provides to us, detailing the breakdown of the money and ticket breakdowns for point spreads, money lines and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website ahead of Opening Day, Steve Makinen outlined ten different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK betting split data developed in the 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifiers for today’s games starting at 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change. Therefore, continue to track and qualify the systems for optimal use until the first pitch.

DK MLB Betting Split System #2: Majority betting groups have proven to be reasonably successful since the start of last season when not too many of them switch to one side, and in fact the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority of bets landed in the 51% to 59% range, these groups increased to 352-297 (54.2%), representing +14.32 units and a 2.2% ROI. This is not the return that a professional bettor is looking for, but it is a very solid number to maintain over the course of 1 1/2 baseball seasons and 649 games.
System Matches (EASY PLAY): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

DK MLB Betting Split System #7: Since the start of last season, there has been a clear pattern of up and down performance per month for most handle bettors. The combined ROI for March and April was -1.5%, a brutal -12.5% ​​in May, and back to -5.3% in June. July fell to a steady -15.1%, followed by a return of -3.5% in August finally a September/October outflow of -16.7%.

DK MLB Betting Split System #8: Majority bettors experienced a terrible playoff season in 2023 with a monthly record of 19-21 (47.5%) for -10.51 units and an ROI of -26.3%. These tend to be a series of high volume games, meaning bettors suffered big losses in October.
System Matches (FADE): NY METS (+136 at LAD

MLB bullpen systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifiers are from the weekly update series on handicapped MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend their winning streaks
I have found that eliminating teams with lower SM bullpen ratings who were looking to extend their winning streaks is also a good strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams with worse Steve Makinen bullpen ratings went 428-485 for -78.6 units in a game on two-game winning streaks, for an ROI of -8.6%. Worse bullpen teams with more than three winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. The ROI of this system is -7.2%. This was a very consistent angle. *In the ’24 playoffs, the 2-game winning streak is 0-5 for -5.77 units and the 3-game winning streak is 0-2 for -2.48 units.
System Matches: 2 games – FADE NY METS (+136 at LAD)

The MLB Postseason is a 12-team tournament consisting of four rounds, with each round played as a series with more and more games the deeper you go. Perhaps unlike any other sport, due to the massive 162-game regular season schedule, the stakes in every single MLB postseason game are vastly increased and therefore some different or additional handicapping strategies should be employed. With this in mind, one of the key factors in preparing for these games is knowing the history and trends/systems that have developed over the past few years. Let’s take a look at the most important betting results from the last few MLB playoff seasons to see if we can’t discover the right tips that will help make these playoffs profitable.

General MLB postseason trends

Line angle
-112 to -180 home favorites in the 2018 MLB Playoffs have been very vulnerable as they have just 67-71 SU (-33.86 units, ROI: -24.5%).
System adjustment (FADE): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

Series wins status
The home field has proven to be somewhat advantageous in even series, as the hosts have achieved a 77-74 record on the run lines in this situation since 2015 (+14.99 units, ROI: 9.9%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs NYM)

Trends based on regular season records
 In the last 112 MLB playoff games where teams with a regular season win difference of more than 7 met, the supposedly better team since 1919 was just 50-62 SU (-36.05 units, ROI: -32.2 %), including a difficult to achieve result. Explore 1-13 in 2023!
System adjustment (FADE): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

In the last three playoff seasons following a full regular season (excluding 2020), MLB teams that won fewer than 90 games posted an increase of 51-44 SU (+16.08 units, ROI: 16.9 %) and 62-33 on the run lines (+21.10 units, ROI: 22.2%) in playoff games.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS

Total angle
The last three MLB postseasons have been very good for over bettors because even though the overall record is 69-69, overs have returned +18.66 units, a 13.5% ROI. The overall value was heavily shaded towards the unders.

LCS round angle
 If you are a “chalk bettor” looking for the best line range to back LCS favorites, it is in the -145 to -185 range as they have since gone 56-23 (70.9%) for +18 .3 units are 2000, an ROI of 23.2%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

However, game-to-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, as they are 39-30 (+19.28 units, ROI: 13.5%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+136 at LAD)

The home teams in Game 1 of the LCS round are 11-5 SU since 2015 (+4.67 units, ROI: 29.2%).
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

Unders have a big lead at 16-7 compared to Game 1 with a total of 8 or more players from 2000 (+7.3 units, ROI: 31.7%).
System compliance: Play BELOW the total (out/out at 8)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following MLB betting trend systems and qualifiers are from the article titled “MLB Extreme Stats Systems,” which describes eight different betting systems for betting teams based on notable stats collected in their previous game.

NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS TODAY

MLB streak systems

The following systems and qualifiers are from the midseason article titled “Handicapping MLB Streaks,” which details 14 MLB betting trend systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFICATION STREAK IS PLAYING TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following is from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to Makinen Strength Ratings forecasts:
System Matches: NY METS +136 (+15 Diff)

Today’s OVERALL PROJECTION SLIGHTLY UNDER (0.3 runs or more) according to Makinen Strength Ratings forecasts:
System Matches: NYM LAD UNDER 8 (-0.3 difference)

MLB team situation trends for MLB betting

The following team-wise MLB betting trends and qualifiers are from the daily updated VSiN MLB Situation Report.

(951) NY METS (94-75) at (952) LA DODGERS (101-66)
Trend: NYM better at night (62-37, +23.35 units)
System compliance: PLAY NY METS (+136 at LAD)

Trend: The LA Dodgers are 2-6 in their last eight home games against NYM
System compliance: FADE LA DODGERS (-162 vs NYM)

MLB Pitcher Situational MLB Trending Spots

The following MLB situational trends and qualifiers show how today’s starting pitchers have performed in a similar spot over the past five years.

(951) NY METS (94-75) at (952) LA DODGERS (101-66)
Statistics: Jack Flaherty’s postseason stats since 2020 (3 appearances, 13.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 BB)

Team-specific momentum build-up/break-down angles

The following trends and qualifiers are from the article titled “Betting Opportunities for MLB Post-Rivalry Series.”NY METS
LETDOWN by series vs. PHILADELPHIA: 12-19 (38.7%) -11.35 units, ROI: -36.6%
System Matches: FADE NY METS (+136 at LAD)