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2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts by Advanced NBA Computer Model

2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Rankings: Sleepers, Breakouts and Busts by Advanced NBA Computer Model

DeMar DeRozan is a six-time NBA All-Star and was one of the league’s strongest players during his three seasons with the Bulls. Now the mid-major juggernaut will join forces with Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox in Sacramento as the Kings look to improve on their 46-win season in 2023-24. How does DeRozan fit into a talented young roster and where exactly should you target each of these three players in your upcoming 2024 fantasy basketball drafts?

With a reliable set of live updated 2024-25 fantasy basketball rankings, you can ensure you get the most value out of every selection. You can also identify potential sleepers, breakouts and busts in 2024-25 fantasy basketball that could define the upcoming season. Before making any fantasy basketball picks for 2024-25, be sure to check out the 2024 fantasy basketball rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proven model simulates 10,000 times each season. This model is run by the same people who ran the projections for all three major fantasy sites. Available for leagues on many major websites, these cheat sheets and rankings are updated multiple times per day. Every time an injury strikes or a roster changes, the SportsLine team updates its cheat sheets.

Last year, the model called Thunder G/F Josh Giddey a bust and predicted he would never reach his sixth-round ADP. The result: Giddey’s minutes were significantly reduced as Oklahoma City’s roster improved, and he saw corresponding declines in points (16.6 to 12.3), rebounds (7.9 to 6.4), assists (6, 2 to 4.8) and steals (0.8 to 0.6). The Thunder ultimately decided to trade him to the Bulls for Alex Caruso this offseason, and fantasy basketball managers who avoided the headaches last season were better off for it.

The model also singled out DeMar DeRozan as a sleeper in the 2021-22 season before he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game. Paolo Banchero and Victor Wembanyama’s breakout seasons before winning NBA Rookie of the Year honors the last two seasons. Anyone who followed the model’s fantasy basketball advice was well on their way to postseason success.

Now SportsLine has simulated the entire NBA season 10,000 times and released its latest 2024-25 fantasy basketball rankings, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts. Head over to SportsLine now to see these 2024-25 fantasy basketball rankings.

Top 2024 Fantasy Basketball Sleepers

One of the best fantasy basketball players of 2024 that the model predicts: Suns center Jusuf Nurkic. In his 10th NBA season last year and his first in Phoenix, Nurkic averaged a double-double with 10.9 points and 11 rebounds per game. He also filled the box score with an average of 4 assists, fifth among centers, as well as 1.1 steals and 1.1 blocks per night. Add to that the fact that he shot over 50% from the field, and Nurkic offered both Suns and Fantasy managers everything you would expect from a big man.

He’s overlooked alongside Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal and isn’t a great choice on offense, but Nurkic provides stability and doesn’t pose any obvious holes in fantasy basketball lineups. He also showed his durability by playing in 76 games last season after averaging just 38.3 games in the previous four seasons. The SportsLine model ranks Nurkic among the top 10 centers in the 2024 fantasy basketball rankings and even has him on par with the man he replaced in Phoenix, Deandre Ayton, even though Ayton was drafted several rounds earlier on average. Find more 2024 fantasy basketball sleepers here.

Top breakouts in 2024 fantasy basketball

One of the 2024 fantasy basketball breakthroughs the model has identified: Wizards PF/C Alex Sarr. The 19-year-old Frenchman stands 7 feet tall with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Sarr moved to the United States in 2021 to play for Overtime Elite and then gained extensive professional experience with Perth in Australia last season.

Sarr averaged 9.4 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in around 17 minutes per game for Perth and is an extremely promising candidate for the Wizards. First, expect Sarr to use his length and athleticism to impact the game as a stretch big and rim protector. The model projects Sarr to be a top-45 forward in his rookie season, despite being the 64th forward off the field on average. Identify more fantasy basketball breakthroughs in 2024 here.

Top fantasy basketball bust of 2024

As for players to avoid, the model lists Thunder forward Jalen Williams as one of its top prospects in 2024 fantasy basketball. The No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft finished second in NBA Rookie of the Year honors in 2023 and finished fourth in Most Improved Player voting last season after being drafted in 2023 -24 averaged 19.1 points, 4.5 assists and 4.0 rebounds.

However, Williams suffered a decline in his usage rates towards the end of the regular season and only averaged 11.8 points per game in April. With the addition of Alex Caruso this offseason, Williams could easily see his role reduced in favor of Caruso and Luguentz Dort on the wing for defensive purposes. That’s a big reason the model places Williams outside the top 25 2024-25 fantasy basketball forwards. Also avoid this 2024 fantasy basketball bust.

How to Find Proven 2024-25 Fantasy Basketball Rankings

SportsLine also has a shocking prediction for one of the league’s biggest names, advising to avoid him in its current 2024 fantasy basketball ADP drafts. This bust doesn’t do justice to his first-round ADP and ranks behind players available in the third round or later like Damian Lillard and James Harden. You can see who it is and the 2024 fantasy basketball rankings for each player only at SportsLine.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts in 2024-25 fantasy basketball should you target and ignore, and which big names should you avoid? Visit SportsLine now to get the 2024-25 fantasy basketball cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed its fantasy basketball picks, and find out.

Consensus Top 100 Fantasy Basketball ADP 2024-25

  1. Nikola Jokic (DEN – C)
  2. Victor Wembanyama (SAS – C,PF)
  3. Luka Doncic (DAL – PG,SG)
  4. Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL – PF,C)
  5. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC – PG,SG)
  6. Jayson Tatum (BOS – SF,PF)
  7. Tyrese Haliburton (IND – PG, SG)
  8. Joel Embiid (PHI – C)
  9. Anthony Edwards (MIN – SG,SF)
  10. Anthony Davis (LAL – PF,C)
  11. Stephen Curry (GSW – PG,SG)
  12. Domantas Sabonis (SAC – PF,C)
  13. Trae Young (ATL – PG)
  14. Devin Booker (PHO – PG,SF,SG)
  15. LeBron James (LAL – PF,SF)
  16. Kevin Durant (PHO – SF,PF)
  17. Donovan Mitchell (CLE – PG,SG)
  18. Jalen Brunson (NYK – PG,SG)
  19. Scottie Barnes (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
  20. Chet Holmgren (OKC – C,PF)
  21. Kyrie Irving (DAL – PG,SG)
  22. De’Aaron Fox (SAC – PG)
  23. Alperen Sengun (HOU – C)
  24. Damian Lillard (MIL – PG)
  25. Ja Morant (MEM – PG)
  26. Dejounte Murray (NOR – PG,SG)
  27. Tyrese Maxey (PHI – PG,SG)
  28. Paolo Banchero (ORL – PF,SF)
  29. LaMelo Ball (CHA – PG,SG)
  30. Bam Adebayo (MIA – C)
  31. James Harden (LAC – PG,SG)
  32. Kawhi Leonard (LAC – PF,SF,SG)
  33. Paul George (PHI – SF,PF,SG)
  34. Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN – C,PF)
  35. Lauri Markkanen (UTH – PF,SF)
  36. Jaylen Brown (BOS – SG,SF)
  37. Desmond Bane (MEM – SF,SG)
  38. Evan Mobley (CLE – C,PF)
  39. Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM – PF,C)
  40. Cade Cunningham (DET – PG,SG)
  41. DeMar DeRozan (SAC – PF,SF,SG)
  42. Pascal Siakam (IND – C,PF,SF)
  43. Jalen Williams (OKC – PF, SF, SG)
  44. Nikola Vucevic (CHI – C,PF)
  45. Jamal Murray (DEN – PG,SG)
  46. Zion Williamson (NOR – C,PF)
  47. Franz Wagner (ORL – PF,SF,SG)
  48. Mikal Bridges (NYK – PF,SF,SG)
  49. Jimmy Butler (MIA – PF, SF)
  50. Rudy Gobert (MIN – C)
  51. Derrick White (BOS – PG,SG)
  52. Brandon Ingram (NOR – PF,SF,SG)
  53. Myles Turner (IND – C)
  54. Jarrett Allen (CLE – C)
  55. Deandre Ayton (POR – C)
  56. Fred VanVleet (HOU – PG)
  57. Darius Garland (CLE – PG)
  58. Jalen Green (HOU – PG,SG)
  59. Nic Claxton (BKN – C,PF)
  60. Josh Giddey (CHI – PG, SF, SG)
  61. Zach LaVine (CHI – SG, SF)
  62. Julius Randle (NYK – PF)
  63. Keegan Murray (SAC – PF,SF)
  64. Immanuel Quickley (TOR – PG,SG)
  65. Kristaps Porzingis (BOS – PF,C) OUT
  66. Brandon Miller (CHA – SF,SG)
  67. Austin Reaves (LAL – PG,SF,SG)
  68. Mile Bridges (CHA – SF,PF)
  69. D’Angelo Russell (LAL – PG,SG)
  70. Jalen Duren (DET – C)
  71. CJ McCollum (NOR – PG,SG)
  72. Devin Vassell (SAS – SG,SF)
  73. Kyle Kuzma (WAS – SF,PF)
  74. Michael Porter Jr. (DEN – PF,SF)
  75. Tobias Harris (DET – SF,PF)
  76. Jrue Holiday (BOS – PG,SG)
  77. Tyler Herro (MIA – PG,SG)
  78. Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU – C,PF)
  79. Cam Thomas (BKN – SG)
  80. Jalen Johnson (ATL – PF,SF)
  81. Brook Lopez (MIL – C)
  82. Bradley Beal (PHO – PG,SG)
  83. Jusuf Nurkic (PHO – C)
  84. Jonathan Kuminga (GSW – PF)
  85. Jonas Valanciunas (WAS – C)
  86. Coby White (CHI – PG,SG)
  87. Jordan Poole (WAS – PG,SG)
  88. Walker Kessler (UTH – C)
  89. Jakob Poeltl (GOAL – C)
  90. RJ Barrett (TOR – PF,SF,SG)
  91. Anfernee Simons (POR – PG,SG)
  92. Mark Williams (CHA – C)
  93. Clint Capela (ATL – C)
  94. Khris Middleton (MIL – SF, SG)
  95. Terry Rozier (MIA – PG,SG)
  96. OG Anunoby (NYK – PF,SF)
  97. Klay Thompson (DAL – SG,SF)
  98. Tyus Jones (PHO – PG)
  99. Chris Paul (SAS – PG)
  100. John Collins (UTH – C,PF)