What’s next for the Middle East? 10 experts give their analysis

The fact that Iran has clearly lost Hamas and Hezbollah as effective deterrents means that more and more figures in the Iranian establishment want to develop a nuclear weapon.

But what does that mean in practice? And when will Israel find out? Israeli intelligence in Iran is pretty good – if Iran actually starts building a weapon, will Israel find out next week? If Iran continues with this, it will enter very risky territory. But as things stand, Iran’s conventional military capabilities are a joke compared to Israel’s, which is why the country has resorted to non-traditional means such as militias – which have proven of little use.

Iran’s nuclear ambitions worry Israel for obvious reasons. Anti-Israel hostility remains central to the regime. For Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the project to destroy Israel is the oldest and most central demand. It is the only project that he has been able to push forward, and the only one in which the Islamic Republic is a leader is the anti-Israel project – it is the only state in the world that shoots at Israel.

However, there is a more pragmatic element within the Iranian political establishment that is often forgotten and that believes that Iran has no business fighting the Palestinian war for the Palestinians.