Examining Notre Dame’s 2024 College Football Playoff odds based on recent history

Notre Dame was in the best playoff position, but only for a short time

After Notre Dame’s big win over Texas A&M earlier in the season, the Irish found themselves in prime playoff position. They had one of the best early wins in the country, had a seemingly tight schedule ahead of them and had overcome what was probably the biggest early threat to success: the road trip to College Station.

However, all of this was short-lived.

Since Notre Dame was never eligible for a CFP bye due to independence, the Irish’s goal was 5th place, arguably the cheapest of all finishers based on group play.

Notre Dame only had control of this place for a few days before disaster struck South Bend in the form of the Northern Illinois riot. Now Notre Dame has two ranked wins and one of the worst losses in America. Where does that leave the playoff hopes?

Notre Dame’s resume is contradictory and complicated

Because of the Northern Illinois skid, the best Notre Dame can achieve now is 11-1, with the 1 being an extreme outlier on the low end. How will this record play out in the 12-team CFP format? How about an Irish team that’s 10-2? No one knows yet, we can only look at recent history and make educated guesses.

Last season, of the 12 top-ranked teams, three were undefeated after conference championship week. Another four teams recorded a loss and the teams ranked 8th through 12th all had two losses.

LSU, the top-ranked team with three losses, was ranked 13th and the Irish were ranked 16th with their record of three losses. I’m in no way suggesting that things will play out similarly this year, but I think it’s interesting to take a look at how the teams performed and where Notre Dame ranked in the group to get a frame of reference receive what could come.

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